The AP has published the details of the “new way forward” in Iraq, and it’s very much in line with everything that’s been leaked over the last couple of weeks. As for the centerpiece of the strategy — the troop escalation — it looks like we’re looking at 21,500 U.S. soldiers.
— Bush will commit 17,500 additional U.S. combat troops, the equivalent of five combat brigades, to Baghdad. The first brigade is to arrive Jan. 15; the next on Feb. 15; the remainder in separate waves every 30 days.
— Bush will commit 4,000 more Marines, in two waves, to Anbar, a province that is a base of the mostly Sunni insurgency and foreign al-Qaida fighters.
— The president’s upcoming supplemental budget request will include $5.6 billion to pay for his new commitment of troops.
— Expand embedding of U.S. advisers into Iraqi security forces.
Now, Newsweek reported that the troops “won’t go until the Iraqis have met several conditions — or benchmarks — to get the extra help they say they need.” White House officials said they expect that process “could take as long as six months.”
That caused a bit of a stir, but it appears to be wrong. As the AP report explains, the first brigade will be on the ground next week. Whether specific goals are met or not is irrelevant.
As for the benchmarks, the AP listed them, as well.
–Finalize an oil law that will share the profits of Iraq’s resources among various ethnic sects and regions in a way that unites the country.
–Ease the policy of “de-Baathification,” which purged ex-members of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-led Baathist rule from the top layers of government institutions.
–Hold provincial elections to bring Sunnis back into the political process at local level
–Increase the transfer of security to Iraqi security forces by the end of the year.
Of course, as we discussed on Monday, these benchmarks are backed up by … nothing in particular. If Iraqis fail to meet them, there are no consequences, at least as far as troop deployment is concerned. We’re drawing a line in the sand, which we’ll continue to redraw whenever it’s politically necessary.
As Kevin Drum put it, “Sounds like the same old schtick after all: troops first, and then benchmarks. And we really, really mean it this time. If the benchmarks aren’t met, we’ll…um…we’ll….set some new benchmarks! That’ll show ’em we mean business.”