I’m reasonably confident that Barack Obama is well-positioned for Election Day. But I’m not this confident.
Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country’s direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters.
Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.
In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. “They were in a pitched battle, and that’s going to impact things. Now that we’ve gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they’ve been talking about,” said Hugick.
Well, maybe. It stood to reason that the post-primary period would benefit Obama. For the last few months, Obama was getting hit from multiple directions, and the Democratic Party was largely split. Now that we’ve been in general-election mode for a couple of weeks, some kind of modest bounce is expected.
But a 15-point lead isn’t expected at all, and seems like an outlier. Most of the recent polling from other major outlets puts Obama’s lead between four and six points, which makes more sense.
Indeed, I went back and looked this morning at Newsweek polls from the last few presidential elections. No candidate has had a 15-point general-election lead since Bill Clinton 12 years ago. I’d be delighted to think the Democratic candidate has that kind of edge now over McCain, but I don’t think it’s realistic.
Nevertheless, I tend to look at these national polls for the trend lines, at this point, things are going in the wrong direction for John McCain.
* Only 14% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country, and most voters perceive Obama as the preferred agent of “change.”
* Women prefer Obama to McCain by a wide margin — 21 points — and Hillary Clinton backers are seen moving to Obama in considerable numbers. A month ago, 53% of Clinton’s supporters were prepared to back Obama. That number is now up to 69%.
* Obama has a 12-point lead among self-identified independents.
* There’s a surprising gap in the candidates’ personal ratings. 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 49% say the same of McCain.
* Voters prefer Obama on the war in Iraq (46-40), energy policy (48-34), and the economy (54-29).
* Obama even leads among whites (45-43) and voters over 60 (44-41).
Sometimes, when a poll seems too good to be true, you have to wonder just how seriously to take it. That said, just on trend lines alone, results like these have to make the McCain campaign nervous.