Some of you have written in to chide me for not posting a pre-election prediction. I was hoping no one would notice. As Yogi Berra is believed to have once said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”
I’ve changed my mind about the race more times than I’d care to admit, but now that the election is tomorrow, I’m ready to go with my final prediction: Kerry 289, Bush 249.
All the usual clichés apply: I could just as easily make a case that Bush will win by 50 electoral votes, anything can happen, too close to yadda, yadda, yadda. At the end of the day, however, I believe Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida will go from red to blue, while Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico will go from blue to red. The net result is Kerry 289, Bush 249.
Keen observers will note that this prediction is different than the one I gave to The Gadflyer. That’s true. But, in my defense, the editors asked me for that prediction a whole seven days ago and plenty has changed since then.
And as long as I’m predictions, I’m going to say that the Dems go +1 in the Senate races, bringing the chamber to a 50-50 split (counting Jeffords as Dem), while Dems go +8 in the House, which won’t be enough to recapture the majority, but will leave the chamber 221 R, 213 D, 1 I. I’m a little less optimistic about the governors’ races, where I think the GOP will go +1, brining the national total for 29 R, 21 D.
All in all, tomorrow should be an excellent day for the Dems. Pass the popcorn.