Since Bush took office in 2001, North Korea has grown progressively more dangerous. Kim Jung Il has removed weapons inspectors from the country, developed more nuclear weapons, and ignored international demands and test fired missiles on the 4th of July.
As noted on Meet the Press yesterday, the Institute for Science and International Security estimated that North Korea has enough separated plutonium to develop now an arsenal of four to 13 nuclear weapons, compared with estimates of just one or two weapons in 2000. By 2008, the Institute believes North Korea could have enough plutonium for eight to 17 nuclear weapons.
The Bush administration’s policy, if one can fairly call it a “policy,” has basically been to walk loudly and leave your stick in Iraq. All the while, North Korea has grown more dangerous, not less.
How does the White House respond to this inconvenient reality? By criticizing Clinton.
Facing increasing criticism of their North Korea policy from the right and left, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow lashed out at the Clinton administration. Snow accused the Clinton administration of going to North Korea with “flowers and chocolates.” He said the Clinton strategy “failed” and President Bush had “learned from that mistake.”
Look, the 1994 Agreed Framework wasn’t perfect, but it did represent progress. Clinton offered North Korea light-water reactors for electrical power; Kim Jung Il agreed to allow full monitoring and inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The deal began to unravel, but Bush ended negotiations altogether after taking office.
After the Bush White House ratcheted up the rhetoric, North Korea, as Fred Kaplan explained, “pulled out of the Nonproliferation Treaty, kicked out the IAEA’s inspectors, unlocked the fuel rods, reprocessed them into bomb-grade plutonium — and that’s where things have stood for the past three years.” There’s been no progress since. To reflexively blame Clinton may come naturally to hacks like Tony Snow, but in this case it’s not only foolish, it’s silly.
Judd helped draw the bottom line for us.
Let’s review the progress of North Korea’s nuclear program during the last three administrations:
1. George H. W. Bush: one to two bombs’ worth of plutonium
2. Bill Clinton: zero plutonium
3. George W. Bush: 4-6 nuclear weapons’ worth of plutonium
If Clinton’s policy was a “failure,” how should we describe Bush’s?