We already know that Undersecretary of State John Bolton is a ridiculous choice to be the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. We know that his nomination is a slap in the face to the international community, that Bolton is the anti-diplomat, and that he has nothing but disgust for the institution in which he’d be representing the United States.
At the risk of sounding insensitive to these concerns, however, I have a more bottom-line question: How are Bolton’s confirmation chances?
The post requires Senate confirmation, and Democrats immediately signaled they would wage a spirited confirmation battle. Forty-three Democrats voted against his nomination as undersecretary for arms control four years ago; even some Republicans privately expressed dismay at Bolton’s elevation yesterday.
Fine, but how much “dismay” are we talking about?
I’ll admit at the outset that I’d be very surprised if all the Dems stick together in opposition and six Republican senators break ranks to oppose Bolton’s nomination. Not that he doesn’t deserve to be rejected, mind you, only that the “nay” votes simply may not be there.
That said, there were a few encouraging signs that the confirmation fight is starting on a good foot (at least for those of us who want to see Bolton defeated). Indeed, there were some pretty high-profile Republicans yesterday who were anything but enthusiastic about Bush’s choice.
First up was Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) who “expressed caution.”
“We need alliances, we need friends,” he said of the United Nations, adding that while reforming the organization was important, “To go up there and kick the U.N. around doesn’t get the job done.”
Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, also didn’t go out of his way to express satisfaction with the nomination and did not issue a statement of support.
Another Republican foreign policy official said the administration was also ignoring the warnings of Senator Richard G. Lugar, the Indiana Republican who is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. This official said Mr. Lugar had told the administration that Mr. Bolton could not be confirmed for a job that had been discussed earlier, deputy secretary of state.
Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), also of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, doesn’t sound thrilled with the choice either.
The New York Times went so far as to say, “Some Republicans predicted that [Bolton] might have difficulty winning confirmation.”
We can only hope that’s true. I suppose the next calls should go to Sens. Snowe, Collins, Specter, and (alas) Lieberman, to see whether there’s hope in this fight or not.