We can now, officially and without any doubt, declare the end of Bush’s unprecedented war-time popularity. Bush’s poll numbers will almost certainly fluctuate, probably a couple of times, between now and the next election, but his base of support has evaporated to the lowest point of his presidency.
No wonder I’m wearing a stupid grin on my face.
The latest poll numbers from Zogby, released over the weekend, show Bush’s approval rating has dropped to 45% while his disapproval rating has risen to 54%. Both are records for Bush’s presidency.
A majority — 52% — said they’d like to see a new president in the White House, while just 40% said Bush deserves a second term. This gap is also the largest since Bush’s inauguration. When the Zogby poll asked respondents to choose between voting for Bush in 2004 or a generic Democratic candidate, 40% said they would choose Bush if the election were held today, while 47% said they would elect a Democratic candidate.
Similar polls showed similar results. An Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll from last week asked respondents about the 2004 election. Only 38% said they definitely want a second Bush term, which is also the lowest percentage on this question since Bush was inaugurated.
Bush fared even poorer on an identical question on the latest Time/CNN poll, in which only 29% said they will definitely vote to re-elect Bush, while 41% said they definitely plan on voting against him.
Bush continues to fare much better in head-to-head match-ups with actual Democratic presidential candidates, as opposed to generic candidates. All the Dems lost to Bush in direct match-ups with Bush, but some of the candidates were a lot closer than others. The candidate who did the best among all the Dems was John Kerry, who trailed Bush 50% to 45%. Howard Dean, meanwhile, did the worst, losing to Bush 52% to 42%.
Nevertheless, Bush’s lack of support is very encouraging news.
I don’t think it’s any great mystery as to why Bush’s support has fallen so dramatically. The poor schmo doesn’t have a single positive achievement in domestic or foreign affairs in three years.
I think Bush’s numbers fell so dramatically in August, however, because the White House took the month off. The news on unemployment, Iraq, Afghanistan, and North Korea kept getting worse, and all the while, Bush was clearing brush on a ranch bought as a campaign prop shortly before the 2000 election.
It’s worth noting that according to every major polling outfit, Bush’s approval ratings also declined last August, during which time he also took off to Crawford.
Now Bush is back at work (well, back in Washington anyway) and he’s beginning to fight back a bit. We saw some of that last week with speeches in swing states on his “economic plan” and his televised speech last night on Iraq.
Last September, Bush’s poll numbers improved a bit once he returned to the White House and began pretending to do stuff again. Of course, a year ago at this time, we weren’t spending a billion dollars a week in Iraq and losing a U.S. soldier a day on the battlefield.