Breaking into the 30s

31%. There is a hard core of misguided, easily duped, lazy morons out there who will never be able to see the light.

It reminds me a bit of the U.K. political situation after the ’92 elections. The Tories had been in power under Thatcher for a very long time, though they’d dumped her for John Major some time before. Major managed to scrape to a bare win in the ’92 elections, but in the years following, the conservatives’ popularity dropped like a rock. By ’97 they were so unpopular that Labour swept into power. From the BBC website:

The party returned to power with a parliamentary landslide, winning the biggest majority held by any government since 1935.

Tony Blair’s New Labour had gained a staggering 179-seat overall majority in the Commons as the Conservatives were tossed aside by the voters.

The election also saw the Liberal Democrats put in a remarkable performance, more than doubling their number of MPs despite taking a reduced share of the vote compared with 1992.

In the election’s aftermath, commentators speculated whether it was at all possible for the Conservatives to overturn such a huge majority in a single election.

Given the entrenched position the Republicans have built for themselves over the years, we likely won’t see such a huge reversal of fortune. However, the amount of ill will they’ve stored up is truly remarkable.

I can see it now. If Bush’s numbers push up to 40 or above sometime in the next few months, for whatever reason, the right wing will be hooting about how well Bush is doing and the press will talk endlessly about his resiliency in the face of bitter partisan attacks.

I think the 20’s are possible, especially if the Iraqi “Constitution” creates an Islamic state with friendly ties to Iran AND removes secular rights for women, as now appears is likely — and all apparently with Bush’s blessings.

Add that with three other principal factors (maybe four or even five), and Bush will continue to “tank” in his popularity. The three/four/five factors include:

(A) The fact that this new “corner” being turned in Iraq will likely be another dead-end with no discernible reduction in the guerrilla war and U.S. casualties OR in the provision of basic governmental services of ordinary Iraqis, just like those that came before (the fall of Baghdad in April 2003; the capture of Saddam in December 2003; the turnover to Allawi and the Iraq Interim Authority from the Provisional Authority and Bremer in June 2004, the “elections” in January 2005; yada yada yada).

(B) Cindy Sheehan isn’t going away any time soon, nor is the spotlight that is now focused on Bush’s incompetence in planning and carrying out the war as well as on his lies that gave rise to the invasion in the first place.

(C) Gas prices aren’t going down anytime soon, and people are still mad as hell at the “Energy Bill” tax give-aways to the oil companies at the very time they are recording massive increases in profits while opur pockets are being picked at the gas pumps every day — with no relief in sight.

(D) Maybe, just maybe, the American public is finally “getting” Bush’s disconnect from reality, with his record-breaking vacation binges, with his whining “It’s important for me to live my life” while there are tens of thousands who are DEAD AS DOORNAILS because of his elective and illegal war, with his refusal to go to even one funeral for a dead troop KIA in Iraq, and with his always trying to scare the shit out of them (i.e., terror alerts, worthless I.O.U.’s in the SS Trust Fund; SS is going bankrupt in only 5 years, etc.).

(E) The four factors noted above do not even consider that Fitzgerald will likely wrap up his investigation in the next 60-75 days (with possible indictments of top White House officials); revelations of continuing corruption throughout the Rethug world that seems to gaining momentum (Arnie in CA, OOH, KY, the poster children Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff, just to name a few); the possible dog fight over John Roberts in the Senate and with the White House for its yet-again stonewalling of documents; continuing bad press on violation of prisoner rights at Guantanimo, at Abu Gharib (and watch out IF those second wave of photos and videos are in fact released to the public, as they should be), in Afghanistan and elsewhere; and who knows about more terrorist bombings or other acts (e.g., ricin on subways or sabotage of chemical plants) especially in the U.S. or other allied countries. There seems to be NO good news that will help ordinary Americans, and therefore help Bush’s polls numbers.

The bottom line is that America is FINALLY seeing all of the B.S., and l expect that, as is especially demonstrated by the self-identified Independents in this most recent ARG poll, the American people are clearly unhappy — and pinning the blame where it belongs. Jimmy Carter got to the 20’s, as did LBJ and Tricky Dicky; won’t be long before Shrub joins this infamous club, too!!

Ezra seems to agree:

As Garance says, that likely means we’ve reached a sort of tipping point, with most everyone but hard Republicans fed up and finished with our hapless chief executive. Was it Sheehan? Was it Iraq? My guess, actually, is that it’s his vacation. If the guy can’t be bothered to remain at work while his various initiatives explode around us, he doesn’t deserve our support. For comparison, it’s interesting to note that Clinton’s second-term approval ratings never dropped below 40%. Not once.

http://ezraklein.typepad.com/blog/2005/08/the_incredible_.html

I’m with Bubba at 31%. (As a side note, I would give my left nut if Bubba were, in fact, Bill Clinton.)

The fact is Republicans are like their minister of morality Bill Bennett: they can’t haul themselves away from the slot machine no matter how much they lose because they are suckers at heart and simply cannot accept and certainly not admit that they were ever wrong.

But still, the Democratic leadership offers no meaningful alternative to the Bush agenda.

Hark is correct here. Even if last November’s election were run today, I’m not sure Bush’s unpopularity would change anything. Until the Democratic party makes a strong and organized push, swing voters will chose someone they don’t even like.

No president should take such a long vacation during war time, or tell the mother of a dead soldier that he has to get on with his life. I should not hear a Democrat speak in congress or the senate without hearing those two things everytime. Plus a Rove kicker at the end.

I’ve said it before, and again, I admire the GOP for their organization and ability to stay on message. If Democrats had one tenth of that, we’d probably live in a completely different world.

LOL. Thanks KTinOhio. I needed that!

as mcuh as i want to believe, unfortuantely a rasmussen poll says 48%
a little to early for Bilmon’s `Sic Transit Gloria Shrub` i’m afraid