Confirming months of rumors, Sen. John Breaux (D-La.) has decided not to seek re-election to the Senate. To state the obvious, his departure will make it even more difficult, if not impossible, for the Dems to mount a successful drive to re-take the Senate in 2004.
Were Breaux to run for a fourth term, his re-election would have been a cakewalk. He’s the most popular politician in the state, he won his last race by a 2-to-1 margin, and he would have likely faced minimal opposition.
His departure will mean yet another popular centrist Democrat in the South will be retiring, creating a competitive, open-seat race for next year. He’s the fifth to make such an announcement this year, following John Edwards (N.C), Bob Graham (Fla.), Fritz Hollings (S.C.), and Zell Miller (Ga.). Had any of them decided to run for re-election, they would have been heavy favorites and the national party would have been able to use its DSCC resources elsewhere.
Realistically, having to wage successful campaigns in each of these states will make it incredibly difficult for the Dems to pick up enough seats to reclaim the majority. I think we’ll probably pick up Fitzgerald’s seat in Illinois, Murkowski’s seat in Alaska, and maybe Nickles’ seat in Oklahoma, but it won’t be enough unless Dems win all of the five southern open races — and that may be too much to hope for.
In case you’re wondering, the race to succeed Breaux will probably come down to Democrat Chris John and Republican David Vitter, both current members of the U.S. House. A poll conducted last month showed John with a slim lead in a hypothetical matchup against Vitter, leading 37% to 32%.
Perhaps the most encouraging part of the Louisiana race is the state’s recent history. After Gore narrowly lost the state in 2000, the state has re-elected Mary Landrieu (D) to the Senate, elected Kathleen Blanco (D) as governor, and kept both chambers of the state legislature in Democratic hands. Keeping Breaux’s seat will be a challenge, but the state has supported Dems in nearly all of its recent statewide elections, so hopefully that’s a good sign of things to come.