Sure, Election Day didn’t work out for Dems the way many of us had hoped, but you don’t have to look too hard to see some silver linings.
* Out of 11 governor’s races this year, only one Dem incumbent lost.
* At the U.S. House level, Dems would have actually gained seats and narrowed the GOP majority were it not for Tom DeLay’s ridiculous (and probably illegal) re-redistricting scheme.
* Out of 34 Senate races this year, only one Dem incumbent lost. The GOP went +4 for the cycle, but that was because five popular southern Dem incumbents all retired at the exact same time, which, when you think about it, was kind of a historical fluke.
And, perhaps most importantly, Dems surprised a lot of people by excelling in state legislative races.
Democrats had great success in state legislative races this year, even as they performed poorly in the presidential race and campaigns for Congress. Many Democratic gains came in the heart of Republican territory.
Colorado Democrats took control of both the House and Senate for the first time since 1974. Montana Democrats won the state Senate and could control the state House, depending on the outcome of a legislative race that finished in a tie and is the subject of a court battle.
Overall, Democrats took power in seven legislatures and earned a tie in the Iowa Senate. Republicans won control in four chambers and added legislators in southern states that have been shifting to the party for 20 years.
Nationwide, Democrats added more than 60 legislative seats, reversing the 2002 results that gave Republicans more state legislators than Democrats for the first time in a half century.
Democratic state legislators now outnumber Republicans by two: 3,658 to 3,656. A pair of undecided races could leave it tied.
It’s easy to be discouraged right now when looking at DC, but success at the state legislative level could translate into long-term gains for Dems.
In a general sense, GOP gains at the federal level are interpreted as a sign of Republican dominance over the political landscape. But if that were really the case, the Dems would have lost ground in state legislatures, especially in “red” states. The reality is, the exact opposite happened.
North Carolina, for example, backed Bush 56-44 at the presidential level and Burr 52-47 in a Senate race. But down-ballot, Dems in N.C. won the governor’s race easily and now have majorities in both the state House and state Senate.
Even Montana (Bush 59, Kerry 39) saw some important changes.
In Montana, which Bush won with 59% of the vote, Democrats took control of the Senate 27-23. Before the election, Republicans had a 29-21 majority.
“To label Montana as a ‘red’ state based purely on the presidential race ignores what’s happening at the local level,” says Brad Martin, executive director of the Montana Democratic Party.
Martin says many hunters and other sportsmen in Montana are swing voters turned off by Republican policies they view as anti-conservation — support for mining, logging and drilling for oil and gas.
There are a variety of explanations at hand — some internal GOP divisions, local issues that cut our way, etc. — but these Dem victories also speak to a strong grass-roots operation.
Looking ahead, this could be the cornerstone of a Dem resurgence at the federal level. It’s almost as if the party is starting to realize that today’s state lawmakers are tomorrow’s governors and senators. Pick your sports metaphor — a deep bench, a wining farm team — because they all apply here.