One final word about last night’s War College speech. In highlighting some of the limited successes we’ve enjoyed in Iraq over the last year, Bush seemed particularly proud of oil revenue. His pride was misplaced.
“Iraqi oil production has reached more than two million barrels per day, bringing revenues of nearly $6 billion so far this year, which is being used to help the people of Iraq.”
Does Bush really want to go there? The White House argued before the invasion that Iraqi oil revenue would be so robust, it would produce enough money to pay for most of the post-combat reconstruction. On this point, like so many others, the administration was totally and embarrassingly wrong.
Let’s go back and consider what the White House was saying about this last year.
Wolfowitz told a House panel in March that Iraqi oil revenues could be between $50 billion and $100 billion in the next two years.
“We’re dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon,” Wolfowitz said in testimony March 27, a little more than a week after the war started.
Was the administration right? Of course not; not even close.
Current Pentagon estimates say that Iraq’s oil revenue will be about $12 billion to $15 billion next year and around $19 billion in 2005 — a fraction of Wolfowitz’s prewar claim.
With this in mind, it was a little bizarre to hear Bush boasting last night about “nearly $6 billion” in oil revenue. It was yet another reminder of yet another mistake, not something to brag about.