You’ll have to forgive my ongoing obsession over Bush’s weakening support among Cuban-American voters in South Florida, but I continue to believe the split in the community may ultimately decide which candidate wins Florida, and in turn, wins the election.
The LA Times had the latest report on the division, noting today that Bush’s support is far less than it was four years ago.
In 2000, when Bush won Florida by 537 votes — a victory that carried him to the White House — he garnered 82% of 450,000 votes cast by Cuban Americans.
A poll by a Democratic group released last week showed Bush still significantly ahead of Sen. John F. Kerry among Cuban Americans, but by a lesser margin: 70% said they supported the president, 19% his Democratic rival; 11% were undecided. The results have given Kerry supporters hope in a state pollsters say remains too close to call.
Another poll conducted in August by the William C. Velasquez Institute, a nonpartisan, nonprofit Latino think tank, showed that support for Bush among Cuban Americans had dropped to 66%.
A drop from 82% to 66% among the state’s largest ethnic minority represents a lot of votes. Four years ago, if one half of one percent of Cuban Americans had withheld support from Bush, Gore’s the president. Now we’re talking about far more than one half of one percent.
The Times also included several anecdotal examples that highlight Bush’s problem.
That political wake-up call, many say, resulted in the administration’s new sanctions. The rules angered Tessie Aral, a Cuban American who voted for Bush in 2000. She tells of a Miami man suddenly denied access to his 24-year-old autistic son in Havana. The man committed suicide, on the same day that Bush made a speech in Miami promoting his new policy.
That’s when the 46-year-old travel agent changed her political allegiance. And her 72-year-old mother, Maria Brieva, recently registered to vote for the first time — just to help defeat Bush. “Bush’s Cuba policy is a shameless political ploy,” Aral said.
Jorge Mursuli is haunted by not being able to keep the promise he made to his dying mother to help her oldest sister in Cuba — she is 80 years old, never married and has no children to support her.
“My aunt is an old lady who needs things,” he said. “The president is asking us to choose between ideology and family. It’s a stupid question. Don’t make me choose.”
The Kerry campaign, to its credit, appreciates the opportunity, even opening a campaign office in Miami’s Little Havana, a step that the Gore campaign never even considered.
Better yet, Kerry and other Dems picked up a key new ally in the community a few weeks ago.
Joe Garcia, the public face of one of the most influential Cuban-American groups in the country, is stepping down as executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation to lead South Florida recruitment efforts for a Democratic organization.
The move comes as both parties step up their efforts to court the massive Cuban-American voting bloc that has the potential to sway a close election in Florida. President Bush is to share the stage tonight at the Republican National Convention with his former housing secretary, Mel Martinez, who, if elected, would be the first Cuban-American U.S. senator.
But Garcia and officials with the Washington, D.C.-based New Democrat Network, said his hiring underscores what polls show is an emerging political division in a community traditionally viewed as staunchly Republican.
These efforts are worth the investment. Considering Florida’s electoral bounty, it may very well make a difference between defeat and victory.