As expected, the White House has embraced a new round of tough-on-Castro policies, just in time to pander to the (suspected) desires of voters in the king of all swing-states: Florida.
The Bush administration said yesterday that it would tighten the 40-year-old U.S. financial squeeze on Cuba and work to prevent President Fidel Castro from passing power to Communist Party successors.
In a series of moves quickly denounced by Democrats as an election-year play for votes in Florida, the White House said it would sharply limit visits to the island by Cuban Americans and cut the amount they could spend there.
[…]
The new approach is similar in spirit to earlier Bush proposals but includes a push to prevent Castro’s younger brother and his communist colleagues from running the country after Castro, 77, leaves the scene. Other measures combine intensified economic pressure with tens of millions of dollars more for pro-democracy efforts.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about Bush’s policy and intentions, but I think the most important point is that the new crack down may not have the desired political effect.
Kevin Drum notes the president’s target audience.
It’s good to know that even as his administration is crumbling around him, Bush is keeping his eye on what really matters: pandering to the Cuban exile community so that he can win Florida in November. Hell, it’s such a transparent vote-buying ploy that the FEC should count that $59 million against his campaign spending limits if any of it is spent in September or October.
My friend Poppy notes that the policy itself is wrong on policy grounds.
Colin Powell’s Chief of Staff, Larry Wilkerson, is quoted in GQ as saying that Bush’s Cuba policy is the “dumbest policy on the face of the earth.” That assumes the policy is to benefit the country, and not electoral wins. Assuming the latter, it just might be smart.
And the Kerry campaign, obviously unafraid to engage on this issue, thinks it’s too little, too late.
The Cuban people deserve to live in a free, peaceful, and democratic nation. And Cuban Americans deserve a president who will be honest with them and dedicated to the cause of removing Fidel Castro from power. But four years after candidate Bush came to Florida and promised Cuban Americans the moon, all they’ve gotten from this president is lip service and broken promises. Fidel Castro’s tyrannical grip is still tight, and conditions have not improved at all for the Cuban people.
Today, after four years of repeatedly breaking promises and failing the nation, George Bush is back with more promises for Cuban Americans. But this time his election year promises ring hollow.
All of this is true and, to be sure, Bush’s suspect motivations deserve to be criticized. But I’m still wondering if the new Bush administration policies may ultimately backfire on the president.
Bush is cracking down on remittances and unrestricted travel, obviously because he believes it will be a popular move with Cuban-American voters in South Florida. It’s not that simple. In fact, the opposite may ultimately be true.
NPR’s Ann Louise Bardach recently explained in Slate:
A viable position for Kerry would be to declare himself fiercely anti-Castro and then point out that Bush has no Cuba policy other than the embargo — a 45-year failure that has yet to make any progress toward its stated goals: free elections in Cuba and an end to Castro’s reign. Kerry should then champion what the majority of exiles want — unlimited remittances and unrestricted travel — and argue that increased contact with Cuba will lay the groundwork for civil society in the post-Castro years.
(Oddly enough, that’s pretty close to what Kerry is advocating.)
Keep in mind, Bush is apparently under the impression that Cuban Americans in Miami will be thrilled with a crackdown on remittances. But that overlooks the fact that 75% of post-Mariel exiles send money back to relatives in Cuba. As Bardach put it, “Most exiles believe [the remittances] feed their families.”
The irony is that Bush, in trying to pander to Cuban-American voters, may be embracing a policy that will be unpopular in South Florida. Bardach quoted Sergio Bendixen, who did polling on this with Cuban Americans, saying, “If this Administration cuts travel or remittances to Cuba, they lose the Cuban vote — and the election.” Yet, that’s exactly what Bush has done.
This may seem like a trivial point with one traditionally-Republican constituency. It’s not. Bush “won” Florida (and its 25 electoral votes) by 500 votes four years ago. If the new White House policy on Cuba doesn’t go over well in Miami, Bush will lose support in the nation’s biggest swing state, where there’s no room for error.
If for no other reason, it will be interesting to see how the new policy is received. It’s something of a gamble, whether Bush realizes it or not.