For reasons that are unclear to me, Bush has consistently enjoyed stronger support in Washington Post/ABC News national polls than any other. I’ve noticed about an 8-point gap between Post polls and everyone else for a couple of years now, always in Bush’s favor. (I’m really not making an accusation here, just an observation.)
But, the latest Post/ABC poll is great news for those of us who are anxious to see Bush lose in November. Across the board, just about every result to every question shows Bush’s public support falling to unprecedented levels for his presidency.
Let’s look at a few highlights:
* Bush’s approval rating stands at 50%, which is down 8 points since last month’s Post/ABC poll and is the lowest rating of his presidency. Meanwhile, 47% disapprove, also the worst of his term.
* Less than half of the public approves of Bush’s handling of every major domestic policy area, including handling the economy (44%), creating jobs (38%), education (47%), and the cost, availability and coverage of health insurance (32%).
* Barely half — 52 percent — now believe Bush is “honest and trustworthy,” down 7 points since late October and his worst showing since the question was first asked almost five years ago, when Bush was just a presidential candidate.
* Americans no longer support Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq — 47% said they approve, while 52% said they disapprove.
* A majority of the public — 54% — believe Bush exaggerated or lied about prewar intelligence on Iraq.
* In a head-to-head general election match-up, Kerry beats Bush, 52% to 43%.
But wait, there’s more. I noticed one thing in these poll results that was just as exciting — Bush’s support in the South. Or, in this case, lack thereof.
Going over recent polls, there have been predictable regional differences. Bush is weaker in the West and the Northeast, stronger in the South. Depending on the sample, Southern support could bolster Bush’s numbers, even when he was growing unpopular elsewhere. Indeed, this poll shows Bush’s approval rating considerably higher in the South than anywhere else. (His support in the South stands at 54%, which isn’t great for Bush, but it’s at least 4 points higher than any other region.)
The good news about the results from this Post/ABC poll, however, is that Southerners are hardly on board for giving Bush another term.
Consider, for example, a general election match-up with Kerry. Nationwide, Kerry leads 52% to 43%, but look at the breakdown by region:
East — 49% Kerry vs. 40% Bush
Midwest — 54% Kerry vs. 42% Bush
South — 49% Kerry vs. 46% Bush
West — 53% Kerry vs. 41% Bush
Not only does Kerry lead Bush in every region, but a Massachusetts Democrat is leading Bush in the South by three 3 points.
These are great numbers, and I don’t want to be a killjoy here, but expect fluctuations in the polls as time progresses. Bush is obviously having a very rough time right now — no WMD, an unpopular State of the Union, media interest in his AWOL cover-up, a Meet the Press interview littered with falsehoods — but there’s still over eight months until the election.
I’m thrilled, of course, with these poll results. But I like to remind readers (and myself) to tempter exuberance with patience. In other words, no one should panic if polls over the summer start to show Bush’s support creeping back up. The election season takes a while; expect peaks and valleys.
But in the meantime, there’s nothing wrong with enjoying Bush’s valley.