There are a total number of 4,049 Democratic delegates available in the presidential nominating process, making 2,025 the magic number for each candidate. If no candidate reaches the threshold in time, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will have themselves a good ol’ fashioned brokered convention in Denver this August.
I’ve gone back and forth on whether this likely to happen, or just a political science pipe-dream. With John Edwards in the race, it seemed possible. After he dropped out, it seemed less likely. But now, following a Super Tuesday that effectively amounted to a tie, I’m back to thinking it may very well happen after all.
The reason is pretty straightforward: Obama has a slight edge in pledged delegates (Dems who vote in primaries and caucuses), while Clinton has a slight edge in superdelegates (lawmakers, governors, DNC members, establishment types). Taken together, they each have about 1,000 delegates. As Jonathan Cohn explained, it’s going to be tricky for either of them to get to 2,025.
In the remaining primaries and caucuses, only 1,787 delegates are at stake. So to win the nomination on pledged delegates alone, a candidate has to win 57 percent of those at stake. And that won’t be so easy to do.
Remember, the Democrats don’t have winner-take-all contests anymore. The primaries and caucuses award delegates with formulas that are based on proportional representation. In a situation where two candidates, each with solid funding, are running strong, it will be difficult to run up large margins. It’s entirely possible we’ll see a lot of results like last night, in which — after all the back-and-forth over who won which state — the two finished nearly even in delegates won.
Exactly. Neither one can put the other one away.
This not only means a brokered convention, it also means a dynamic in which superdelegates pick the Democratic nominee.
To brush up on the details of the process, I recommend Sam Boyd’s American Prospect piece from a couple of weeks ago, but to make a long story short, superdelegates — 20% of the total — are “DNC members, all Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, and certain former party leaders. Essentially they represent both Washington insiders and the leadership of the state parties.”
Ordinarily, a candidate emerges through the nominating process, and the superdelegates are along for the ride. This year, they may be in a position to dictate the outcome. As Josh Marshall noted this morning, “With primary voters unable to settle it, it goes to Democratic officeholders, which is by and large who the super delegates are. So that’s what I’m looking at. Who has super delegate endorsements to roll out this morning? Who do elected Democrats want to run with?”
That’s basically all the superdelegates are looking for — a candidate who can win, and a candidate who’ll help other Democrats win. Who they’d back is still a matter up for debate.
Ezra argued, “I really, really hope the Democratic primary doesn’t come down to superdelegates — the privileged class of delegate that gets to vote however they want, and were created to ensure that party elites didn’t lose too much control over the process.” That immediately struck me as correct, though Kevin raises a fair point.
Maybe I’m just being contrarian here, but why would this be so bad? After all, the only way it could happen is if the voters themselves split nearly 50-50. And in that case, the nomination would end up being decided by a massive effort to sway uncommitted delegates anyway. So who cares if that massive effort is directed at superdelegates (senators, governors, etc.) or the more plebeian regular delegates (typically county chairs, local activists, etc.). And in any case, why shouldn’t the party elders, many of whom have to run on the same ticket as the presidential nominee, get a little extra say in the process?
Fair enough. I think the problem, which Kevin goes on to highlight, is that party big shots will be in a position to effectively override the will of rank-and-file Democrats. The people will come to one conclusion, powerful insiders will come to another, and it’s the establishment that will have the final call.
Barack Obama seems well aware of this scenario, and explained his perspective at a press conference in Chicago this morning.
Obama also made some interesting comments about his route to the nomination, saying that he’ll amass a higher total of pledged delegates as a way of putting pressure on committed super-delegates to honor the Democratic process, forgo back-room politics, and back the candidate with the most public support.
“If this contest comes down to super-delegates, I think we’re going to be able to say that we have more pledged delegates — meaning that the Democratic voters have spoken,” Obama said. “And I think that those SD’s who are elected officials, party insiders, would have to think long and hard about how they approach the nomination when the people they claim to represent have said, `Obama’s our guy.'”
If Clinton and Obama go to the convention tied (or practically tied) among pledged delegates, this is a moot point. Superdelegates can break tie. But the possibility for real ugliness emerges if Democratic voters have spoken, and Democratic insiders silence them by picking the candidate who came in second.