Charlie Cook and the possibility of a ‘tidal-wave election’

August 2, 2006

National Journal’s Charlie Cook, a non-partisan election analyst for, well, just about everybody, explained in his column this week that Democrats have every reason to be optimistic about the midterms.

In the House, where Democrats need a 15-seat gain to win a majority, Republicans have 15 seats that the Cook Political Report currently rates as toss-ups. No Democratic seats remain in that column. Another 21 GOP seats are rated as leaning Republican.

In a very large tidal-wave election, as this one appears to be, it would not be unusual to see all toss-ups go to one party, along with a few out of the leaning column as well. Republicans might lose their House majority just in the seats in which they are behind or in which their edge is within a poll’s margin of error.

In the Senate, while it is easy to get Democrats to a four- or five-seat net gain, six is tougher. But keep in mind that in the last four non-wave elections, between 67 and 89 percent of the races rated as “toss-ups” in the final Cook Political Report pre-election ratings broke toward one party each time, a domino effect, with the close races breaking toward the party with momentum.

Cook’s column dovetails nicely with this LA Times piece that talks about several GOP incumbents, who aren’t used to worrying about campaigning, looking a little rusty on the trail (one lawmaker ran TV ads that spelled her own name wrong).

Just to be clear, there are plenty of things that can reshuffle the deck over the next three months. Maybe the Dems won’t get an effective turnout operation going. Maybe Howard Dean and Rahm Emanuel will try and kill each other. Maybe Karl Rove has Osama bin Laden on ice, waiting for an opportune moment. I’m not prepared to guess. And I’m certainly not prepared to start celebrating now.

I’ll put it this way: all of the key factors are in place for this to be a very successful election year for Dems nationwide. The party could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory — we do have a habit of doing that — but Dems are where they need to be.

Consider this your morale boost for the day.

Well, there is still the question of the Diebold voting machines. They always seem to be the unknown factor in election results that differ vastly from the polling information. While I feel confident that the attitudes of the people in the country are shifting, and have shifted, as long as we still allow those machines with the, by now obvious ease involved in changing the votes, it will be business as usual.

I’d say be prepared for the tally to come up short.

  • Maybe Karl Rove has Osama bin Laden on ice, waiting for an opportune moment.

    I think the fat little pig has cried “WOLF” at the sheeple one too many times…

  • i continue to question whether winning the House (which is at least possible) is worth it just for the thrill of subpoena power.

    however bad conditions are now, they will get worse over the next years, both in terms of the economy and national security. right now, it’s all gop control. win one house and we open up the mccain “reformer with results” line.

    i want to win the presidency and the congress in ’08 so that we can start to repair this country from the damage of the bush years. i don’t know that a dem house does any good in keeping the rot from spreading….

  • I want the subpoena power just to start getting facts in front of the general public about what these monsters did. To me it’s not about 2008, primarily; it’s about history and the character of the nation, and how the Cheney/Rove/DeLay/Norquist/Dobson wrecking crew essentially raped it.

    If they aren’t called to account now, they’ll never be.

    But I’m still not confident that the Democrats will be able to close the deal; this all might prove to be academic.

  • Oooohh, crystal ball time, can I play too?… I see the color ‘orange’ for some reason…

  • howard,

    i want to win the presidency and the congress in ’08 so that we can start to repair this country from the damage of the bush years. i don’t know that a dem house does any good in keeping the rot from spreading….

    While not essential, I see Dem control of either house of Congress as helping ensure electoral wins in 2008. Subpeona power will help to shed light on the out-of-control executive branch with its GOP inspired emphasis on cronyism and patronage not expertise, and the dangers of a subservient GOP-led congress. We need to help America see the damage the GOP has done in order to get the broad middle to swing to the DEM candidates in 2008. Yes, we can do this without taking control of the House or Senate in 2006, its just harder.

  • Cook’s analysis is encouraging, but I don’t feel confident about any race “in play.” For one thing, Republicans always get out their vote. Democrats don’t. And Karl Rove has proven that there is no end to his effective Slime & Lies inventory.

    I don’t know about “Osama on ice,” but I’m certain that there will be an October Surprise. It could be “an almost certain, but under-investigation” stockpile of hydrogen bombs in Iraq or a brand new threat from Norway. Anything to scare. Or a “Democrats will take away our Bibles, babies, and gasoline” Big Lie. I’d like to think these tactics have become ineffective, but I don’t.

    By now, America should be outraged to the point of impeachment. That we aren’t is not a good sign for 2006.

  • Actually, I read this as giving Democrats only an outside chance to gain control of the House or Senate. I’m still predicting modest gains for the Dems in both, but not enough to change anything going forward.

    I think, unlike most, this is perhaps the most important election in our history. It is the only chance that the criminal misdoings of the Bush administration will ever be uncovered. It is the only opportunity for the American people to understand what a monumental disaster these eight years will have been. No revelations – no lessons learned.

    However, I don’t believe for a second that even if the spineless Dems do gain control of both houses, that they will conduct any meaningful investigations into the most corrupt administration in history.

  • After thinking about this while out on my walk with Karen (wife) and Lulu (Samoyed), I now consider my morale boosted. Thank you, CB.

    Incidentally, I wish we could send some of our Pacific Northwest weather to those of you in the oven elsewhere in the country.

  • The housing boom is rapidly turning into a housing bust and it seems to be Republican areas that are falling off the cliff first. Florida, inland California and southern California are all having real estate falloffs, just in time for November.

  • Six weeks of God, gays and guns should do the trick. Always has in the past.

  • Reply to Hark: It seems that every upcoming election is the most important ever. Don’t get me wrong, 2006 is important. But even if the Dems do not become the majority in either house, important progress is inevitable in terms of the pure numbers. Provided the Dems can promote an inspiring candidate in 2008, there is the opportunity for gains in that year to put the Dems over the top in both chambers. Chin up folks!

  • edo/dajafi: i’m not against the subpoena power, for the reasons you cite.

    but i think that’s all we’d get out of capturing the house, and in return, we will get branded as partly responsible for the recession, for iraq, and for every other disastrous chicken waiting to come home to roost.

    which, in my mind, improves the gop’s chances to win in 2008.

    are the subpoenas worth that much?

    now, edo, you think it will make it easier to win in 2008, but i don’t see exactly how: care to elucidate further?

  • Reality Check:

    General Polls show support for Democrats but that isn’t the story. Every district by district poll show Republicans holding both houses in 2006. .Both parties have effectively undermined democracy by gerrymandering their turf so that it’s almost impossible to lose. More so in the state legislatures but also on the Federal side. It doesn’t matter if Democratic strongholds rack up 100% of a poll or the vote. Nothing seems to keep the Democrats from repeating things that are clearly not true. They are not going to win either house and it’s within the margin of error for them to lose seats in most “real” district polls. Democrats really don’t have anything to offer but gay marriage, the right to kill your own child, redistribution of wealth to whoever will vote for them, and capitulation to terrorists demands.

  • how commenters like WER expect us to believe the piffle they peddle constitutes a “reality check” is beyond me. what a maroooon.

  • .. capitulation to terrorists demands (#17) ?? — You mean like arse-licking the bushfucks?

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