It’s hard to measure these questions with any reliable specifics, but it seems as if there’s been a relative ceasefire in Democratic circles the past couple of weeks. Hillary Clinton is still working hard, just as she has been, but it’s clear her campaign has shelved the “kitchen-sink” strategy first utilized in March, preferring not to attack Barack Obama much at all. Indeed, Clinton has been far more aggressive in targeting John McCain of late than Obama.
As such, it also seems the calls for Clinton’s withdrawal have dropped in volume, and probably in number. If Clinton wants to keep going, but she’s not campaigning in such a way as to hurt the party’s chances in the fall, and Obama can transition to general-election mode anyway, then anxious Dems no longer feel a sense of urgency about ending the nominating fight.
Given this, while Clinton hears from insiders behind the scenes about an inevitable defeat, she simply doesn’t feel as if she has any motivation to stop.
Rebuffing associates who have suggested that she end her candidacy, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has made it clear to her camp in recent days that she will stay in the race until June because she believes she can still be the nominee — and, barring that, so she can depart with some final goals accomplished.
Mrs. Clinton has disagreed with suggestions, made directly to her by a few friends recently, that her continued candidacy was deepening splits within the Democratic Party and damaging Senator Barack Obama’s chances of emerging as a formidable nominee. She has also disputed the notion that, by staying in, she was unintentionally fostering a racial divide with white voters in some states overwhelmingly supporting her.
Rather, in private conversations and in interviews, Mrs. Clinton has begun asserting that she believes sexism, rather than racism, has cast a shadow over the primary fight, a point some of her supporters have made for months. Advisers say that continuing her candidacy is partly a means to show her supporters — especially young women — that she is not a quitter and will not be pushed around.
Some of her goals and arguments are more compelling than others.
For example, there’s the notion that Obama could be forced to move closer to her position on the rare policy disputes between them.
Mrs. Clinton’s advisers also say that her popularity could lead Mr. Obama to fold some of her policy positions — like universal health insurance — into his platform, though they discounted the notion that her staying in the race was part of a larger bargaining strategy.
This strikes me as rather unlikely. For one thing, if Clinton will have no choice but to step aside soon anyway, Obama won’t have much of an incentive to drop his healthcare plan for hers (despite the fact, by the way, that I think her plan really is superior to his). For another, Clinton can have an enormous impact on the shape of healthcare legislation through her work in the Senate, rather than backroom negotiations as she exits the race. Besides, these two just don’t disagree on that much.
There’s also the notion that prolonging the intra-party fight even longer will ultimately help Obama.
[Clinton’s] advisers say that a major reason she does not want to be pressured out of the race is that she believes it will be easier to bring her supporters over to Obama once the primaries are over if they think she was able to finish the nomination battle on her own terms.
I’m not sure if this works either. As Christopher Orr put it, “Let me get this straight: Hillary Clinton gets her supporters riled up by declaring that she doesn’t want to leave the race, and then her campaign uses those riled up supporters as an argument for her not to leave the race? I understand Hillary Clinton not wanting to be pressured out of the race, and I understand her supporters feeling the same way. But the race is going to end in one of two ways: Either she will leave graciously and in a timely manner or she will be, to an increasing degree, ‘pressured’ to leave. The problem is that most of the people who don’t want her to be pressured, don’t want her to drop out either, and by discouraging the latter they’re helping to ensure the former.”
And perhaps my biggest concern is that Clinton may yet take steps that might give her a small, short-term boost, but hurt the party far more in the long run.
[Clinton] will travel to Florida on Wednesday to argue that [Obama] wants to win the nomination by disenfranchising the state’s Democratic primary voters, a visit that can only damage him in a swing state crucial to Obama’s chances in November.
No good can come of this.
So why bother? As far as I can tell, there’s one good reason: surprises happen.
While Mrs. Clinton believes that winning the nomination is a long shot at this point, she is also staying in the race because, in her experience, electoral politics can be a chaotic and unpredictable enterprise, scandals can emerge from nowhere, and Mr. Obama’s candidacy could still suffer a self-inflicted or unexpected wound. Picking up more primary votes and superdelegates could only strengthen her position if the party wants or needs to find an alternative to Mr. Obama.
And that makes sense. Should something dramatic and unforeseen happen, Clinton will be there to pick up the pieces. It’s unlikely, but what does she have to lose? Her reputation might suffer in Democratic circles, but it will recover in time. Her efforts might make it tougher for Democrats to win, but the Clinton campaign is reportedly convinced that Democratic ill will quickly fade after her withdrawal.
“I think in the end, when South Dakota and Montana go last and have their final result, she will sit back and see whether a win can be achieved or not — and if not, she is a class act and will do the class thing and get on board with the Democratic ticket,” said Jay Jacobs, a New York superdelegate and top fundraiser for Clinton.
I like to think that’s true. Time will tell.