When it comes to the “nuclear option,” the conventional wisdom tells us that most Republicans are feeling feisty and aggressive, while most Dems are worried and on the defensive. The situation is, fortunately, far more nuanced.
Dems, to a large extent, have been in a near-panic because the end of judicial filibusters means that Bush would have the ability, carte blanche, to stack the federal bench with as many right-wing reactionaries as he could, including when dealing with possible Supreme Court vacancies.
But there’s a growing group of people, most of whom are conservative and all of whom have the Republicans’ attention, who are beginning to realize that a “nuclear fall out” could, at least in the short term, do significant damage to the GOP agenda as well.
Worried that their agenda will come to a screeching halt, business leaders are urging Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) not to exercise a bold parliamentary tactic known as the “nuclear option” on judicial nominees.
Industry lobbyists and association heads so far have avoided taking a public role as the debate over stalled judicial nominations escalates. Instead, they are relying on one-on-one conversations with Senate leaders, comments in meetings on other subjects, and staff contacts. But, according to multiple sources on K Street, the employer community has concluded that, whatever its merits, the nuclear option is not worth the price of imperiling the GOP’s legislative agenda.
“If and when they play this nuclear-option card,” said one association head, “it’ll certainly make a big impact on how the legislative agenda is dealt with. … It’s less important to the business community than it is to others.” The association chief added that industry officials “have given advice to the leadership,” adding that business leaders who have pending “agenda items” undertook the initiative on their own.
It’s the kind of information that gives Dems leverage they may not have fully appreciated.
If Senate Republicans change the rules in the middle of the game, it’s well known that Dems will bring Senate business to a screeching halt. It’s no wonder business lobbyists are sweating this; there are a lot of lucrative deals in the GOP agenda for them. No Senate activity means no goodies for Corporate America.
To be sure, conservative grassroots activists and the religious right have been clamoring for the “nuclear option” for over a year, but this plays into another recent Republican problem: Who’s calling the shots on the Hill, the Christian Right or Big Business?
Several lobbyists and members of business groups acknowledged a rift between business groups and social conservatives, two cornerstones of GOP support.
The risk here for Republicans is greater than has been advertised. If Bill Frist doesn’t follow through and fails to change the filibuster rules, he’ll anger the activist base, and also be weakened and embarrassed after months of grandstanding and bravado-filled threats. If he does follow through, the Republican agenda can’t get passed, K Street lobbyists will very unhappy, and GOP lawmakers run the risk of a public backlash.
Frist has dragged the Senate GOP out onto a limb from which they can’t crawl back. Stay tuned.