At first blush it sounds pretty silly. Realistically, it seems foolish to think there are voters in Florida who think, “I prefer Democrats to John McCain on Iraq, the economy, the environment, and taxes, but I’m not going to vote for them in November because of a dispute over convention delegates.” Sure, people can base their votes on superficial reasons, but c’mon. No one is that foolish, are they?
Well, it’s a funny story.
Howard Dean and Barack Obama may insist Florida’s Democratic presidential primary was meaningless, but a new poll shows Florida Democrats aren’t buying it, and one in four may not back their party’s nominee in November if Florida winds up with no voice in the nomination. […]
“If there’s one thing that this survey says is you have to acknowledge the Jan. 29 primary on some level,” said pollster Tom Eldon. “You really can’t say the Florida primary was a non-event to voters. It was a non-event to Howard Dean according to the rules of the DNC.” […]
More than three out of four Florida Democrats say it’s “very important” that Florida’s delegates count toward the nomination, and one in four said they would be less likely to support the ultimate Democratic nominee if Florida’s delegates don’t count.
Specifically, poll respondents were asked, “If Florida’s delegates are not counted, are you any less likely to support the Democratic candidate for president?” Two-thirds said this would not affect their vote, but 14% of Florida Dems said they are “much less likely” to support the Dems’ ticket in November, while 10% said they are “somewhat less likely.”
It’s worth taking a moment to consider how truly ridiculous this is.
Last week, TNR’s Michael Crowley argued that this shouldn’t concern the Democratic Party at all, because there’s no way voters would actually do this.
There are plenty of variables for Democrats to consider as they debate what to do about Michigan and Florida. I would say the possibility that not seating the contested delegations could turn the states against Democrats in November is not one of them.
I don’t even really understand the claim. By the time election day rolls around in November, after all the bitter fighting between the Democratic nominee and John McCain, is it really credible that Michigan and Florida voters will base their decisions on what happened to their convention delegates? No way.
I want to believe this; I really do. I’d like to believe voters would put the nation’s interests — and their own interests — far above petty concerns about nominating calendars and convention delegates. But if this poll is any indication, there’s at least some chance that this dispute could cost the party one of the biggest and most competitive states in the country.
The saving grace may prove to be time. When the election rolls around in November, the convention will have been three months past, and the rule-breaking primary will have been 11 months past. I have no idea what’s going to happen with those delegates, but Dems can at least hope that the wound will heal by Election Day.