An email fundraising letter went out yesterday from Howard Dean’s presidential campaign, letting his supporters know that “every contribution makes a difference in our effort to take back our country.”
As part of the letter’s case that Dean is a popular candidate on the brink of national success, the appeal said, “We are tied for first in New Hampshire and tied for second in Iowa.”
If true, this point would be valuable proof that the campaign is “capable of winning the Democratic nomination and defeating George W. Bush in 2004.” The problem is the fundraising letter is wrong.
First, Dean isn’t tied for first in New Hampshire. An American Research Group poll released about 12 hours before the Dean email went out showed that John Kerry has extended his lead over Dean in New Hampshire, where Kerry is polling at 28% and Dean is at 18%. As ARG explained, “Kerry’s 10 percentage-point lead over Dean is the largest since January.” Moreover, Kerry leads Dean 31% to 16% among registered Democrats likely to vote in the primary.
Well, perhaps the letter was written before the poll was released. Fair enough. But the problem is no poll has ever shown Dean tied for first in New Hampshire.
Second, Dean isn’t “tied for second” in Iowa, either. A Research 2000 poll for an Iowa TV station showed Dean third, behind Kerry and Dick Gephardt. As before, I can’t find a single poll from a single source that has ever shown Dean tied for second in Iowa.
Looks like yet another misstatement for which the campaign will have to apologize.