I got several frustrated emails and phone calls yesterday expressing concern over the latest round of polls showing Bush edging ahead nationally. The concern is misplaced.
Instead of relaying the data from the slew of recent polls — some of which show Bush up, others Kerry up — let’s instead rely on Ezra Klein’s fine research and take a look at the national polls from this week four years ago.
* ABC (10/19) Bush 48, Gore 43
* Gallup (10/19) Bush 50, Gore 40
* Opinion Dynamics (10/19) Bush 45, Gore 42
* Reuters/MSNBC (10/19) Bush 44, Gore 44
* Voter.com (10/19) Bush 44, Gore 39
* ABC (10/18) Bush 48, Gore 44
* Gallup (10/18) Bush 49, Gore 39
* NBC (10/18) Bush 45, Gore 43
* Reuters/MSNBC (10/18) Bush 44, Gore 43
* Voter.com (10/18) Bush 44, Gore 40
You’ll notice, not a single poll showed Gore ahead, but two weeks later, Gore won the popular vote, and were it not for the Katherine Harris and the Supreme Court, the presidency. All the polls, in other words, were wrong. Gallup, which shows Bush’s lead growing right now, was the worst of the bunch.
It didn’t get better in the proceeding two weeks, either. Ezra noticed, for example, “[O]nly 3 of the 20 polls taken in the final two days gave Gore any sort of lead.” Again, they were wrong then, so there’s certainly no reason to panic now.
Further, and far more importantly, national polls are increasingly meaningless at this stage of the game. I’m not just saying that because Kerry is down a few points in a few polls; I’ve been saying this for months — this isn’t a national race; it’s a state-by-state race.
National polls are mildly interesting for trend lines, but by definition, they include data from the whole country. With all due respect to my friends in Texas and California, which when combined represent home to one in five Americans, we can already predict with some certainty how they’re voting this year.
As we know all too well, the name of this game isn’t to win a plurality of votes among Americans; it’s to win 270 electoral votes. National surveys tells us literally nothing about which candidate is closer to that goal. If you want to know how the race is going, see who’s up in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. This is where the campaign will be decided.