DeLay wins primary — but is there trouble ahead?

March 8, 2006

OK, so Tom DeLay won his Republican primary challenge by a 2-to-1 margin. That said, DeLay should still be concerned about the results.

Representative Tom DeLay survived a challenge to his renomination for Congress Tuesday night, outpacing three Republican primary rivals seeking to capitalize on the criminal charges and ethics citations against him.

Mr. DeLay, 58, an 11-term incumbent, turned out a disciplined army of poll workers and pledged his Washington influence on behalf of NASA’s Johnson Space Center and other big constituencies.

With nearly 88 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Delay had 19,684, or 61 percent of the vote, far ahead of his closest opponent, Tom Campbell, at 9,595, or 30 percent.

Let’s put those numbers in context a bit. DeLay won 61% of Republican votes in a district he’s represented for 22 years, running against a primary opponent who has never held elective office in his life. National Journal said yesterday that if DeLay didn’t get at least 65% of the vote, it “would spell major problems in a race against Nick Lampson,” DeLay’s Dem opponent in November. And sure enough, DeLay fell short.

The fact that there was a serious primary challenge suggests DeLay has a problem locally, and the fact that two in five Republicans in his district don’t even want him as their GOP nominee only highlights just how precarious DeLay’s future is. Put it this way, if DeLay enjoys similar Republican support in November, he’s going to lose. Badly.

Of course, there was one other House primary in Texas yesterday worth watching.

First-term incumbent Henry Cuellar passed his political rival, former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez, when the first votes from Cuellar’s home county were tabulated late Tuesday in the Democratic primary in House District 28.

With 190 of 276 precincts reporting, Cuellar had 16,705 votes, or 49 percent of the ballots tallied. Rodriguez, who narrowly lost to Cuellar in the 2004 primary in the South Texas district, had collected 15,408 votes, or 45 percent, and Victor Morales had 2,145 votes, or 6 percent.

This race, of course, has been a focus of major attention on a number of leading progressive blogs. As Chris Bowers noted last night, “This is the first election where the netroots have tried to knock off a Democratic incumbent.” Cuellar is the prototypical Democrat-In-Name-Only, prompting many leading blogs to rally behind Rodriguez in a bid to help the former House member regain his old seat.

At this point, Cuellar appears to have fallen short of the 50% support he needed to win the seat outright. (The winner of the primary gets the seat; there is no GOP candidate.) If those results hold up, a run-off between Cuellar and Rodriguez would be held on April 11. Stay tuned.

With 274 of 276 precincts reporting, Cuellar has received 23,546 out of 44,656 total votes or 52.7%. In all likelihood, there will be no run-off. Sorry for the bad news.

Link to the Texas Secretary of State Democratic primary election results for the 28th House District: http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/dem1race5.htm

  • Second what slip kid just wrote. The two remaining precincts are in Webb and Zapata counties.
    Both Cuellar strongholds.

    Ciro is out.

  • Is it possible for Rodriguez to run an independent in the general election? I saw, in earlier posts, that in principle, the DCCC endorses incumbents – but jeez, this incumbent, how has he been good for the party.

  • I don’t hold out any hope that the Republicans who didn’t vote for DeLay in the primary might continue to look elsewhere in November. When was the last time anyone saw “Republicans” (from the elected officials on down to the voters) do the right thing when they had the chance?

    40% of the Republican voters in DeLay’s district may have voted for his primary challengers, but how many of them do you honestly think will turn around and support Lampson in November?

    Remember what Tom Cambell said about DeLay a couple of days ago?

    Attorney Tom Campbell, DeLay’s principal GOP rival, said, “I think it’s amazingly ironic and callous he would be spending election night with a group of lobbyists. I don’t think he understands how unhappy constituents are with what appears to be a trade of principle for power.”

    Seems to me like DeLay knew exactly what he was doing after all. And it seems to me he understands his constituents better than his challengers hoped to. Until the voters stop voting for crooks, it doesn’t matter how much of their wrongdoing comes to light.

    As much as I enjoy reading the weekly proclamations that Tom DeLay’s days are numbered, I certainly don’t believe the voters in Texas will be the ones to shut him down.

  • They let DeLay win primary, to make the corrupters dump more money into the TITANIC, it is simply part of the plan, also it would expose the Corrupters backers, so they could be outed in November! Sugarland voters ain’t so dumb after all, they playing the Corrupters like the Grand Ole Piano! If they would have outed him in primary, the money he was given would have been used for viable candidates, and it would not have let public see just who is giving to TITANIC!

    They sink money into TITANIC, they see who dumps money into TITANIC after primaries they find out who the hard core corrupter backers are Sugarland is pretty smart, and they expose the dirty dumpers for who they are, cuz if you backin’ that your anti American, anti good, and operating against the public !

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