I know you’ve heard plenty about those trendy demographic sub-groups that political scientists get excited about — [tag]NASCAR dads[/tag], [tag]soccer moms[/tag], office-park dads, [tag]security moms[/tag], wired workers, freelance evangelicals, etc. The groups probably get a little more attention than they deserve, but from a poli sci perspective, I nevertheless enjoy keeping an eye on them.
And right now, they’re all backing away from the GOP, some faster than others.
“Security moms,” for example, is used to describe married women with younger children. Particularly in the aftermath of 9/11, it’s a constituency Republicans have counted on to keep their congressional majorities, but in recent months, they’ve largely given up on the [tag]GOP[/tag].
This critical group of swing voters — who are an especially significant factor in many of the most competitive suburban districts on which control of Congress will hinge — is more inclined to vote [tag]Democrat[/tag]ic than at any point since Sept. 11, 2001, according to data compiled for The Washington Post by the Pew Research Center.
Married mothers said in interviews here that they remain concerned about national security and the ability of Democrats to keep them safe from terrorist strikes. But surveys indicate Republicans are not benefiting from this phenomenon as they have before.
Disaffection with President Bush, the Iraq war, and other concerns such as rising gasoline prices and economic anxiety are proving more powerful in shaping voter attitudes.
In 2002, security moms supported Republicans, 53% to 36%. In 2004, 56% of them backed Bush. As of now, they support Dems, 50% to 38%.
In my favorite anecdote from the WaPo piece, the paper quoted Marylee McCallister, a mother of three who was a [tag]Republican[/tag] for 42 years until this April. She said she voted for Bush because she believed his warnings that the Democratic nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), would weaken the nation.
“I was dumb,” she said. “Now, granted, they came here and rammed bombs into us, but I am afraid we have gotten into something full scale which perhaps did not have to be.”
How bad is it? Even NASCAR dads are increasingly up for grabs.
The term “NASCAR dads” is shorthand for blue-collar, mostly white, southern men who support the U.S. military, like to hunt and enjoy watching cars race around asphalt tracks at speeds of up to 200 mph.
While politicians focused on NASCAR’s core in 2004, some polls indicate cracks may be appearing in the overall fan base of an estimated 75 million people.
Polling by Zogby International in August found that while more than half of NASCAR fans voted for President George W. Bush in 2004, 56 percent now say the country is on the wrong track.
Almost one-third of NASCAR fans now intend to vote for Democrats in congressional races this fall, similar to the number planning to vote Republican, according to the Zogby poll. According to political analysts, this has occurred despite no significant increase in Democratic campaigning aimed at this group.
If Dems have really pulled even with Republicans on a generic ballot with NASCAR dads, it’s likely to be a very good year.