Dems would probably be wise to look to the south and give up, at least on the presidential level, on states like Mississippi and Alabama. But, as I’ve emphasized before, not all southern states are created equal. Consider one of the two states with gubernatorial races this year: Virginia.
To be sure, this is, and has been, a “red” state. John Kerry’s support in Virginia, however, was the highest of any Dem candidate in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Kerry actually won Fairfax County, the state’s largest and most populous county, the first Dem candidate to do so in 40 years.
With a popular and successful Dem governor, Mark Warner, completing his term in Virginia and eyeing a presidential race, Dems have decided that this is one southern state that cannot be ignored — and they’re putting their money where there mouth is.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Terrence R. McAuliffe [announced Tuesday] that the party intends to invest $5 million in Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s bid to become Virginia governor, Democratic sources said.
State party officials said the contribution will represent the largest amount the DNC has ever given to a Virginia candidate for governor.
To put this in perspective, the DNC, pessimistic about a Dem’s chances in Virginia four years ago, invested only $1 million when Warner ran in 2001, and gave literally zero to Don Beyer when he ran for governor in 1997.
Dems, in other words, plan to make Virginia a swing state.
There are a few angles to this investment. Clearly, Warner, who is barred from seeking a second term under Virginia’s bizarre one-term limit, wants to see his lieutenant governor succeed him, proving to interested parties that he (unlike, say, Howard Dean, who was succeeded in Vermont by a Republican governor) can deliver for the party.
Dems are also positioning themselves for mid-terms.
Virginia’s election cycle does not match that of most states, so there are few competing demands for the DNC money in 2005. But Democratic sources said the national party views the contribution to Kaine as a longer-term investment that could pay off during the midterm elections in 2006 and the next presidential race in 2008.
“This makes a lot of sense,” said one Democratic source familiar with the DNC pledge. “Both Kaine and Virginia represent where the party needs to go. It sends a signal that we want to reach out to a red state and we want to target [GOP] voters.”
Keep in mind, after Warner’s victory in ’01, Dems made gains in the Virginia legislature for the first time in many years.
Dems also want to create a sense of party momentum. If we elect Dem governors in Virginia and New Jersey in 2005, it will be spun, somewhat persuasively, as an indication that Dems are bouncing back strong after setbacks in 2004.
The party is obviously anxious to expand the playing field in the coming years and move beyond the Kerry campaign’s 19-or-so-state strategy. There are a number of “red” states that are likely to be in the mix in the coming years, including western swing states like Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico, but keep an eye on Virginia.