Dems vs. GOP on the war? It’s not even close

April 26, 2007

I noticed last night that Atrios, highlighting the results of the latest NBC/WSJ poll, said, “People hate Bush and hate the war. I don’t know what it’ll take for that to enter the bloodstream of Official Washington.”

It’s exactly why I found it curious that Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who helped conduct the poll for NBC and the WSJ, suggested the results weren’t clear cut.

Yet Newhouse, the GOP pollster, says that there are dangers for the Democrats if they decide to go too far on Iraq. “The Democrats risk overplaying the Iraq issue by tying the president’s hands on funding. Yes, Americans want Congress to put pressure on the president for a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq, but that doesn’t mean they want Congress to sidestep the president and do it on their own.”

Has Newhouse not read his own poll? How much clearer do these results have to be?

As the Democrat-controlled Congress and the White House clash over an Iraq spending bill, with President Bush vowing to veto it because it contains withdrawal deadlines, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that a solid majority of Americans side with the Democrats.

In addition, a nearly equal number believe that victory in Iraq isn’t possible, and about only one in eight think the war has improved in the three months since Bush called for a troop increase there.

“They don’t see the surge working,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. Instead, they are saying “we need to get out.”

By any reasonable measure, the data should be considered unspinnable.

* The poll shows that 56% of Americans say they agree more with congressional Democrats about a timeline for troop withdrawal, as opposed to 37% who say they agree with Bush.

* 55% believe “victory” in Iraq is no longer possible.

* 49% (a plurality) believe Iraq has gotten worse since the start of the president’s so-called “surge” policy. (Only 12% believe conditions in Iraq have improved.)

* Only 22% believe the country is on the right track — the lowest in an NBC/WSJ poll since October 1992.

Newhouse think Dems should hesitate? That Americans are loath to see Dems “sidestep the president”? I’m not a professional pollster, but it’s hard to see how these results bolster this argument.

As for the White House, the president said on Tuesday, “Last November, the American people said they were frustrated and wanted a change in our strategy in Iraq. I listened.” That’s clearly ridiculous, but if Bush is really intent on “listening” to the public, we seem to be speaking rather clearly right now.

* Only 22% believe the country is on the right track — the lowest in an NBC/WSJ poll since October 1992.

What a coincidence, right at the end of the last Bush presidency!

When will the American voters start learning?

Oh yeah, maybe when the “liberal media” stops pretending that these numbers somehow mean that Bush still has support for his monumentally failed policies.

  • Newhouse’s response:

    “Well, they used skewed polling questions. They should have asked “Do you want the Democrats to surrender our country to bin Laden?

  • Guys, get a grip. Neil Newhouse is a “Republican” polster. What do expect?? Him to say “Why sure, we should get out of Iraq right now. The Democrats are correct”.

    It’s politics people and with politics there is spin. If you think that anyone, Democrat or Republican is going to say that the other side is correct than you your living in a dream world.

  • I think the right/wrong track number is probably not as it appears.

    A lot of us Lefties believe we’re still on the wrong track because we’re still in Iraq with no end in sight (Congress has only barely tried to stop the war, and the latest bill has “optional” timetables that Bush will ignore)

    Righties see the congress reaming Bush at every turn. (heh)

    So both sides have things they want to see change, and therefore the “wrong track” numbers could represent both.

  • This is also why Broder is nuts (sorry, still stuck on a prior thread).

    When Bush vetoes the Full Funding of our Forces bill and sends it back, Reid and Pelosi ought to make sure they personally hand a copy of these poll results to every Rethug just before moving the vote to override.

    At some point, the natural instinct for self-preservation has to kick in and trump loyalty to a same-party President who never has to face voters again and is dumber than a box of rocks.

    Once that point is reached, this administration will switch from merely lame duck to dead duck.

  • The message the Dems need to hammer home is

    We are trying to end Bush’s war but we need a Democratic surge in 08 to finish the job. Our nation is unsafe in Republican control. End the politics of terror by voting an overwhelming Democratic mandate.

  • What’s with MSNBC and the “Democrat-controlled Congress” thing? I immediately discounted the article author’s credibility. That is soooo 2005.

  • Zeitgeist,

    …to a same-party President who never has to face voters again and is dumber than a box of rocks.

    As regular readers here can attest, I agree with you much more often than not. But on this comment, you’ve gone too far. Too far!

    The above is a gross insult to rocks everywhere, and this amatuer petrologist, this petrophiliac if you will, won’t just sit here in a sedintary state and accept such an outrage. Please, for the sake of the good name of rocks everywhere, recant this outrageous analogy.

  • Just out of curiousity, how would Newhouse suggest Congress “put pressure on the president for a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq” as he says Americans want, if not by debating such timetables, and passing legislation that contains them?

    And just in what way is sending legislation to the President for his signature “sidestepping the President and doing it on their own?”

    Perhaps someone could play some Schoolhouse Rock episodes for Mr. Newhouse, so he might improve his awarenss of how our government actually works.

  • I recently sent an email to NBC about Brian Williams who is messing up his cute face trying to contort the news to be favorable to Bush. What I suggested is that Williams continue to handle the news from his right wing perspective on Mondays and Wednesdays and let Olbermann handle it with his left wing perspective on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Whoever gets the best ratings during the week gets to do Fridays. This would add a “survivor” hype to the show and demonstrate the accuracy of the polls.

  • I’m going to start hoarding popcorn. At the rate things are going, there’s going to be a whole lot of Republicans screaming like little girls, suddenly flying off the planet and into the void of space. Somewhat like that “Bridge of Death” scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail….

  • Thank you, Edo, for pointing that out; I would apologize to any rocks that took offense to my choice of words. Why, some of by best friends are rocks. I meant no offense to any rocks, whether pebbles or boulders, whether igneous, sedimentary or metamorphic. And you should note, I foten do good works, too, that should be considered. And rappers say worse things.

  • Newhouse let the genie out of the bottle and is trying to get it back in. Those poll numbers give more power to the Democrats to advance their agenda and Newhouse is asking them not to use that power. Bush calls it politcal capital, but a real capitalist would not spend his capital but would invest it wisely, as I think the Dems are doing.

  • thank you Zeitgeist. I recently looked into the eyes of several rocks (and potatoes, FWIW) and simultaneously realized that they have good souls (just like Putin!) and have forgiven you your uncharacteristic outburst.

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