In March, the first big contest of 2008 was a special election in Illinois’ 14th district. Republicans felt good about their chances — the district had been represented by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R), Bush won the district twice by double digits, and Republicans have held the seat for decades. But when voters headed to the polls, a Democrat won by six points.
Yesterday, the second big contest of 2008 was a special election in Louisiana’s 6th, and once again, the GOP went into the race optimistic. Bush won the seat by 19 points in ’04, and Republicans have dominated the district for decades.
And now it’s represented by a Democrat.
A Democrat won a special congressional election here Saturday, bolstering his party’s majority status on Capitol Hill by taking a seat Republicans have held since 1974.
Don Cazayoux, a lawyer and state lawmaker, beat Republican Woody Jenkins to cap a race that Democrats viewed as a chance to further tighten control over Congress. The seat opened when Republican Richard Baker, a 20-year incumbent, resigned to take a lobbying job.
With all precincts reporting, Cazayoux had 49 percent of the vote to 46 percent for Jenkins, a community newspaper publisher. Three independents combined to take 5 percent. The congressional district includes Baton Rouge and surrounding parishes.
Republicans, predictably, downplayed their latest embarrassing defeat, but let’s not forget that the NRCC and right-wing groups like Freedom’s Watch combined to pour nearly $1 million into the race, and most of the ads sought to tie Cazayoux to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Nancy Pelosi.
“For the second time this cycle, Republicans were reminded that ‘all politics is local,'” DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen said in a statement. “House Republicans tried to nationalize this election, illegally coordinated with Freedom’s Watch, used false and deceptive special interest smears, and funneled nearly a million dollars into a district that Republicans held for more than three decades. Don won by focusing on the concerns of LA-06 voters — good paying jobs, affordable health care, and better education.”
If yesterday didn’t make Republicans nervous, they’re not paying attention.
Chris Cillizza emphasized that Woody Jenkins was a weak candidate. He ran a largely unprofessional operation — he wrote, produced, and financed his own low-quality ads — and blew off GOP strategists in DC who tried to offer him advice.
But in response, publius adds a good point: “[F]ielding bad candidates is itself a function of the political environment. When the mood is anti-GOP (which it is), then higher-quality candidates hesitate to jump in.”
What’s more, I’d just add that Jenkins was hardly an unknown figure in the area. He’s been involved in Louisiana politics for 36 years; he had the enthusiastic support of Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, the NRA, and religious right leader James Dobson; and in 1996, narrowly lost a U.S. Senate race. This guy is extremely well known, and lost in a safe Republican seat.
Realistically, Cazayoux is very likely to be one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus. He frequently reminded voters of his opposition to abortion rights, his love of guns, and his desire to crack down on illegal immigration. A progressive champion he is not.
But he’s a Democrat in a Republican district, and the right test-drove a campaign message based on tying Dems to Obama and Pelosi. Dems won, Republicans lost.