Despite a wide-open race, Republicans sit on their hands

October 11, 2007

When it comes to the 2008 presidential race, Democrats and Republicans, for the first time since 1952, are in the exact same boat — no incumbent president seeking another term, no incumbent vice president looking for a promotion. In fact, this campaign will only be the second since 1920 that we’ve seen this dynamic play out.

For that matter, with at least nine candidates, and a credible, four-man top-tier, the Republican Party is looking at its most competitive presidential field in the modern era.

But the party can’t seem to snap out of its slumber.

This has already been documented in a variety of ways. Republicans are struggling to raise money. They’re struggling in the polls. They’re struggling to rally enthusiasm (Thompson has taken to asking for applause after his stump speech). Jonathan Martin takes a look at an angle I hadn’t considered: field organizations.

Representatives for Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are cagey about the precise number of boots on the ground they have in the early states — but it’s widely thought to be at least five times what the Republicans have.

And even beyond the Democrats’ well-financed top two candidates, the contrast is stark. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has more than 100 staffers in Iowa, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has over 70 and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd has 60.

Of all the Republicans, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the most aides heading into the caucuses — 17 (Romney does, though, have a cadre of more than 50 Iowa “super volunteers” who are paid a stipend each month to perform some organizational tasks typically done by unpaid help).

It’s not just Iowa. In New Hampshire, McCain and Giuliani each have about a dozen paid staffers. Clinton and Obama both have over five times as many.

If this were simply a matter of money, Dodd wouldn’t have more than triple the number of Romney staffers in Iowa. There’s obviously more to this.

This David-versus-Goliath staffing mismatch is yet another sign of trouble for Republicans in the general election, said a veteran Republican strategist in Iowa, as it reflects sagging spirits among hard-core GOP activists.

“That’s a function of several things — their race is more interesting, their field is perhaps stronger, they have far more resources, and yes, the number of staff and HQs also adds to their turnout,” said the strategist, who requested anonymity to speak frankly about his party. “Plus, Republicans are in a funk, a general bad mood. It’s a harbinger of tough things to come in 2008 for our down-ballot races.

I think this strategist is largely right, but there was one word that went missing throughout the analysis — Bush. Republicans may be “in a funk,” but that’s only because Mr. 28 Percent put them there.

Put it this way: how many grassroots activists are ready to pound the pavement in the hopes of getting “four more years”?

(Thompson has taken to asking for applause after his stump speech).

Ha ha.

  • CB wrote: “For that matter, with at least nine candidates, and a credible, four-man top-tier, the Republican Party is looking at its most competitive presidential field in the modern era.”

    I’m sorry, did you just call the Republican clown-car of candidates ‘credible’? I don’t see how any of these bozos can be considered credible in any way, shape or form. They’re the sorriest lot I’ve ever seen.

    (My apologies to Bozo the Clown for the negative clown references.)

  • This is because the “Money Party” to use David Sirota’s words, relizes that the only way they stay in control is to support the Democrats. In the process we (progressives and individuals) all loose and will see much more of the same that we have seen for the last 7 years. For every candidate we must ask ourselves whether they belong to the money party or the people party and vote accordingly. I am beginning to thing there is no way to change things working with the two major parties.

  • Infinity One, vote for campaign refinance reform. McCain and Obama are the only two major candidates even considering it.

  • Well… It’s not like these guys fight the good fight on principle. They do it for purely selfish reasons, and with all that self-enrichment gone, they must be doing a lot of soul searching about what they’re doing all this for. If not money and breaking stuff, then what? I guess they serve to stop stuff.

  • I’m pretty sure the True Believers will get their groove back once they have Hillary to hate. They really can’t function without a bogeyman, and until she wins the nomination they’ll be unfocused.

    The country will vote for anything with a (D) by it, come next November. But what a mess they will inherit.

  • Part of their problem is that they have spent 20 years – especially since 1994 – grooming a certain type of Republican. Unfortunately, when the electorate has decided that they are fed up with this type of Republican they don’t have anything else to draw from. They have either drummed out or marginalized any Republican that was a certain type (Chafee, Hagle) and many of the “acceptable to the party” Republicans possibly lost are either in jail or possibly on their way.

  • The sad truth is that no matter who gets the presidency from which party, it seems almost inevitable that they will be a one-termer since it will be nearly impossible to clean up Dubya’s messes in a mere four years. Besides, the only times in American history that a two-term president was followed by another two-term president were James Madison following Jefferson; James Monroe following Madison and, of course, Dubya’s eight-year nightmare following Bill Clinton’s two terms. If Lincoln had managed to serve two full terms and had then been followed by Grant’s two terms, that could have been another. William McKinley was elected twice following Grover Cleveland’s second term, but of course Cleveland’s terms weren’t consecutive and McKinley didn’t finish his second term.

  • Misread the title of the post. At first glance I though that it said, “Despite a wide-open stance, Republicans sit on their hands.”

  • Republicans may be “in a funk,” but that’s only because Mr. 28 Percent put them there.

    They willingly followed him there. They have only themselves to blame.

  • I just don’t understand how the modern Republian Party survives, much less thrives, as it has since it morphed into this monster under Reagan. Their two largest constituencies are angry white males and fundamentalist Christians. But their policies serve only their smallest group, wealthy individuals and businesses. Well, okay, you could say that attacking and beating the crap out of little countries serves the angry white guys. But mostly they just pay lip service to most of the people that vote for them.

    I wish I could say that this Republican Party is dying out, because it is totally bankrupt of policies which serve the interests of the American people. But that’s not the case. If anything, they believe they just have to become more so to get their mojo back. And they probably will. They’ll get tougher and meaner and stingier and more warlike and rise up again.

    How could this have happened to this country?

  • Quislings, one and all; Quislings, taking the fall.

    The reason they’re not coming out of the barn yet is that they’ve nothing to offer but the “scary thing” scenario that Coultergeist and company have been peddling for years now. Reskunklicans have no platform other than fear; they have no message other than hate; they have no vision other than absolute power.

    A “movement” (the term “bowel” make a good prefix here) that cannot promote the positives of its own position has but one weapon in its arsenal—attack the other side. Right now, these quadraplegic wombats can’t even figure out who they’ll have to face next year. Their party’s debts currently exceed assets, and their base is threatening to bolt. Dobson himself likens the GOP frontrunner to HRC, and dismisses UnAware Fred without so much as a second think. A lot of those ‘vangees won’t give Mormon-Boy a second look (many hardcore fundies still think of the LDS as lemmings of the AntiChrist), and the SBC wants to nail RampStrike’s hide to that part of Judge Moore’s “pet rock” that says, “Thou Shalt Not Lie.”

    The GOP is, to quote that evil Chuckie-doll occupying the Naval Observatory:

    “In its last throes.”

    They’re backed into a corner; they’re bleeding out from numerous self-inflicted wounds; there are no band-aid solutions left—Bush used the whole first-aid kit just to get through 2007, and the year’s not done yet.

    There’s also another thing to consider: Bush has so crippled his glorified “War on Everything” that his only option—other than to get out while the getting is good—may be to further expand the war into Syria and Iran. No one—not McCain; not Romney; not even UnAware Fred wants to inherit sole ownership of a war so botched that it makes Vietnam look like a glorious victory.

    And even this early, whoever works their butt off and takes on the “serious” role of frontrunner will be viewed as “heir apparent” to the disasterous failure that will befall the US if Mad George expands his insanity….

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