This year, there were far more reasons that not to believe Kerry’s post-convention “bounce” would be minimal. The Dem base has been with him for months, the number of undecided voters left is relatively small, he announced his running mate well before the convention itself, etc. Most of us thought it’d be great if Kerry came out of Boston up by a few points, which would put him in a strong position heading into the fall.
How do the polls look at this point? Pretty contradictory.
Newsweek released a much-discussed poll over the weekend, showing Kerry with a significant seven-point lead (49% to 42%) over Bush. When Nader is excluded, Kerry looks even stronger, leading 52% to 44%. Just as significantly, Newsweek’s poll showed Kerry with a larger lead after his Thursday night speech than before it. (For more on this, Ruy Teixeira has some good analysis.)
Kerry’s “bounce” may have been modest, but half the poll came before the end of the convention and Kerry still enjoys a solid lead overall. It’s very encouraging data.
Likewise, CBS News showed Kerry with a very small bump after Boston, but it nevertheless showed him solidifying an earlier lead. CBS shows Kerry up 49% to 43%.
So, the numbers are looking pretty good? Well, not all of them.
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Sunday had, shall we say, “mixed” news.
Kerry leads Bush among registered voters, 50-47, which is actually a slightly smaller lead than Kerry enjoyed before the convention. What’s worse, likely voters preferred Kerry 49-47 two weeks ago, but backed Bush 50-47 over the weekend.
This data really doesn’t make any sense, not only because it conflicts with similar national polls conducted over the same period of time, but because the internal data strongly backs Kerry.
Kerry’s acceptance speech Thursday was rated as “excellent” by 26%, a more positive response than Bush got in 2000. A 44% plurality said the Democrats were “about right” in criticizing Bush; 30% said they went too far.
Views of Kerry’s personal characteristics and leadership improved; views of Bush didn’t change much. Bush’s edge in handling terrorism was shaved to 12 points from 18. In a switch, Kerry now is trusted more to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief, by 51%-46%.
Kerry’s military service is seen as a plus. A 52% majority says it would help him be an effective president. More than one in four say it makes them more likely to vote for him.
Indeed, the same data shows people preferring Kerry over Bush in handling Iraq, handling the economy, and being more trustworthy. All of this points to the success of the convention and encouraging prospects for the next three months. And yet, the general election match-up doesn’t reflect this support.
Oddly enough, the LA Times’ Ron Brownstein suggested yesterday the other numbers — job approval, country’s direction, etc. — are more important than the head-to-head match-up at this point.
“It sounds a little odd to say, but often the horse race is a lagging indicator in the presidential race. And I agree with John that the real impact we won’t know until early next week, but if you look inside the Newsweek poll, what’s interesting is that it continues to send the message that President Bush is still facing a slight majority of the country that is open to change, 53 percent saying they want somebody new, only a 45-percent job approval in that poll, 58 percent saying that things aren’t going well in the country. To me that is the real challenge he faces more than John Kerry at this point.”
The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.
The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, having a strong favorability (56%), but his job performance is another story. Only 32% approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the right direction. The undecideds are not yet sold on Mr. Kerry, with only 49% having a favorable opinion of him. But Mr. Kerry can still sell his message to them: over a quarter (28%) are either not familiar enough or are not sure of their opinion yet. These undecided voters are generally dissatisfied with the President, but are still not acquainted enough with the Senator from Massachusetts to support him.
In other words, stay tuned.