Did the debate shake up the Dem race? Not really

November 3, 2007

This week’s Democratic presidential candidate debate certainly captured the attention of the political world, but did it really shake up the race at all? Not according to a new poll just out from Newsweek.

On Tuesday, at the eighth presidential debate among Democrats, front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton came under withering fire from her top rivals, Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards. But the attacks didn’t appear to do much damage, with her lead for the party’s nomination unchanged, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Almost exactly a year before election day, Clinton is also the favorite to win the White House–if only by a very small margin.

The New York senator gets 44 percent of the overall Democratic vote, compared to 24 percent for Obama (down a point since NEWSWEEK’s August poll) and 12 percent for Edwards (down two points). She is the first choice of 45 percent of self-identified Democrats (compared with 39 percent of Democratic “leaners”). She also trounces Obama among Democratic female voters (48 to 19 percent) and enjoys a marginal lead among male Democratic voters (38 to 32 percent). Obama runs better among younger Democratic voters and minorities.

Still, Obama and Edwards both run significantly stronger than Clinton among independents. For example, in a head-to-head matchup against Republican contender Fred Thompson (who commands just 15 percent of GOP support), Clinton attracts 47 percent of the independent vote. Both Obama (56 percent) and Edwards (57 percent) draw a majority of the independent vote against the retired senator and “Law & Order” star.

All of the usual caveats apply, including, of course, the fact that national polls are of limited significance at this point.

That said, the results offer a little something for everyone.

If you’re a Clinton fan, she’s the frontrunner who does fairly well in general election match-ups. If you’re not a Clinton fan, Obama and Edwards appear to be stronger in those same general election match-ups.

When you pit the two parties against each other, Giuliani gives the three Democratic leaders a close race. He trails Clinton by four points (49 to 45 percent) and Edwards and Obama by three points (48 to 45 percent in each instance). Still, the unpopularity of President George W. Bush will be a significant obstacle for any Republican nominee to overcome. A 58 percent majority of all voters and two-thirds (66 percent) of independents say they have an unfavorable view of Bush. […]

[T]he poll results do somewhat call into question the Democratic frontrunner’s electability come next November. Clinton’s support tops out at 49 percent in trial heats against Giuliani, Thompson and Romney. Her four-point margin (49 percent to 45 percent) over Thompson and Romney is significantly less than Edwards’s and Obama’s performance in those head-to-heads. Obama and Edwards both lead Romney by 53 to 37 percent. Edwards leads Thompson 53 to 39 percent; Obama leads him 52 to 39 percent.

What about if Bloomberg got into the race? It’s unlikely, but GOP insiders seems anxious to see him give it a shot, working under the assumption that he’d draw support from the Dems. That’s not the case.

If billionaire New York mayor Michael Bloomberg were to run as an independent, he’d do more to help the Democrats, according to the poll. In a three-way race against Clinton and Giuliani, Clinton leads with 44 percent to Giuliani’s 38 percent and Bloomberg’s 11 percent.

And what about the GOP field?

[F]ormer New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani has also held his lead over his field of competitors with 30 percent of the Republican vote. And Thompson has slipped from a high point of 22 percent support in August to 15 percent today–although he remains ahead of both Sen. John McCain (14 percent) and Mitt Romney (12 percent). The only Republican to have gained ground since August is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (at 7 percent, up from 2 percent). But, also like Clinton, Giuliani’s support is strongest among registered party voters (at 31 percent), before it softens among voters who “lean” Republican (23 percent.)

Stay tuned.

They aren’t polling anyone around here. Where do they get their polls from …DC? For all I know they just make this stuff up and then try to convince me this is the reality. Kucinich and Edwards top Clinton by 20 to 1 around here, MO. The polls must reflect voters who never give an opinion until the pollsters get in touch with them. I’m not buying any of it.

It’s like the “values” voters. Whose values? The religious Right’s conservative neocon values? Because that group certainly doesn’t represent my family’s values or the values of most of the people I know. Just like the “American Family” institute. Whose families would that be…Religious right conservative neocon families? I’m an American family and I disagree with nearly every thing this group stands for. My point…saying it doesn’t make it so. Kucinich/Edwards ’08…the only real change…the truth ticket. Make it happen.

  • Personally I’m astonished that Giuliani does so well in the GOP nominating race. If he wins it, as far as I’m concerned we should throw him in the face of every gooper pro-lifer from now on, telling them they obviously don’t believe a word of their own arguments if they’re willing to nominate Giuliani.

    OTOH if Giuliani wins the general, I’ll be seriously looking into emigrating. Not going to wait for the death squads to start making rounds of known Democrats.

  • Almost exactly a year before election day, Clinton is also the favorite to win the White House–if only by a very small margin.

    Nothing like “a very small margin” to instill confidence in the Donkey-party’s base.
    After what the mules have been through with Gore and Kerry…
    I can imagine they must be chomping at their bits to select “Hillary the hated” as their nominee.

    In other words: She’s the de facto nominee headed for yet another ipso facto train wreck.

    I feel for the donkeys… I really do.
    Not so much because they are a bunch of stubborn asses.
    But because they’ve let Big Media pull them by the bridle right up to yet another cliff edge…
    Are ya’ already to jump?
    Vote Hillary!
    Yip-eee-ah-yeah…..

  • Let’s see what the voters rather than the corportate-sponsored pollsters have to say. Hillary scares the crap out of the wingnuts. She’s the antithesis of their patriarchal, top-down, bullshit-laden party. She’s a woman, fer crissakes, and not only that, she refuses to bake goddamn cookies like some mindless wingnut fembot! No offense to the Edwards and Obama fans out there, but I think both of these guys are pretty boys, much the same way Kerry was, and the result could be the same: some piece of goddamn rightwing shit stinking up the West Wing, startin’ wars and bringing American down. Again. It’s time to clobber these piece-of-crap conservatives and I think Clinton is the right tool for the job.

  • Hmmm. Looks like at this point in 2003, George W. Bush was averaging around 8 points ahead of John Kerry in ballot tests and 10-12 ahead of Howard Dean. Perhaps more interestingly, Bush was also running about dead even with a generic Democrat at that same time, which of course is more or less where the race ended up a year later in terms of the nationwide popular vote.

    This year we’re already seeing the entire Democratic top tier edging out the entire Republican field in named ballot tests and begin the race with a 7 to 15 percent advantage on the generic ballot. Of course a lot can happen in a day in politics, let alone a year, but as of this moment I am still happier to rather be in our position than theirs.

  • I don’t believe any polls Clinton’s camp puts out, and that includes Newsweek. I can recall an op-ed there by Anna Quinlan before Obama entered the race claiming that Clinton had it all sewed up and that John Edwards should just quietly fold. This had to be last January or December.

  • Despite me left leaning political values, I can’t understand how so many people are supporting Hillary. I think my favorite part of the debate was when she mentioned that the New York driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants was a good idea, but then quickly argued that she never said that, only 60 seconds or so later. She is the epitome of why I don’t trust politicians. Does she have to be so overtly repulsive? She makes her oval office thrill seeking husband look like a saint. I love the politician in Bill, but do we really need a less refined, less charming Clinton in the oval office? I think not.

    Hillary needs pick a position and stick to it for a change. I’m sick of the lies.

  • Obama runs better among younger Democratic voters and minorities.

    There is an irony in this statement. “Runs better” means very little, since traditionally minority candidates reliably produce minority appeal. But Hillary is ahead of Obama among all minorities, so Obama doing “better” means absolutely nothing.

  • “if Giuliani wins the general, I’ll be seriously looking into emigrating. Not going to wait for the death squads to start making rounds of known Democrats.”

    Amen to that. People on the left underestimate Rudy because they’ve never seen anything like him. Moderate Repubican? Yeah, if Genghis Khan is your idea of a moderate. He’s not running the Bush playbook on abortion/gays. But he is building an unholy alliance with the Radical Right to suppress ‘choice’ in all forms — starting with the black vote in NYC. ‘Pro-abortion’ Rudy was handpicked by the Catholic Archdiocese to be mayor.

    Rudy would disembowel Obama. And John “I apologize” Edwards? The world won’t stop laughing for months when Rudy gets through with Edwards.

    Hil vs. Rudy – that’s a bloodbath. But she drives the woman vote, she’s a ‘sensible hawk’, she beats him on domestic issues. She’s got the ground game, the inside game, and she can take whatever Rudy can dish out. Can Rudy take what she dishes back?

    Bloomberg isn’t running. I think he switched parties because he doesn’t want to support Rudy. Bloomy the Billionaire is the smartest man in the world. If he’s not supporting Rudy, he thinks Rudy is going to lose.

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