Dobson waits until it’s too late, backs Huckabee

February 8, 2008

Some people have the gift of timing. James Dobson isn’t one of them.

There’s been ample speculation for months about when and whether the far-right evangelical would officially throw his support to one of the Republican presidential candidates. Dobson demurred, noting that he’s never formally endorsed a White House hopeful before, and he’s not going to start now.

Since then, John McCain has solidified his position as the prohibitive favorite, and his principal rival quit yesterday. And now that Republicans and conservative activists are starting to coalesce around the nominee, Dobson steps up to endorse a candidate with no shot whatsoever.

James Dobson, one of the nation’s most prominent evangelical Christian leaders, is about to endorse former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, The Associated Press has learned.

Dobson, founder of Colorado Springs, Colo.-based Focus on the Family, talked to the GOP presidential hopeful Thursday and later was to release a statement explaining his choice, said Gary Schneeberger, a spokesman for Dobson.

Huckabee had long sought Dobson’s endorsement, believing he is the best fit to advance Dobson’s conservative, moral worldview.

Until now, Dobson had never endorsed a GOP presidential hopeful during the primary campaign.

Well, this is likely to have … no impact at all. Huckabee’s campaign is effectively over, a fact which he and his supporters are well aware of. He doesn’t have any money left, and he’s unwilling to go on the offensive against McCain, whom he’s apparently been lobbying for the VP slot.

And now, given this landscape, the Focus on the Family Chief decides it’s time to rally the troops for the guy who’s campaign is practically finished.

For what it’s worth, Dobson wasn’t the only religious right leader stepping up yesterday.

Evangelical leader Pat Robertson told FOX News Radio Thursday morning that he and other evangelicals would not support McCain, citing his temper.

Robertson referenced a Wall Street Journal article describing him as a “capped live volcano,” adding: “You never know when he’s going to explode…. If you’ve got a guy who’s the commander in chief with his hand on the red button, I just don’t know, I wouldn’t like to be in WWIII, and I just have a feeling he wants to show how macho he is and we might just get ourselves in something we don’t want.”

Robertson couldn’t very well point to some of McCain’s less conservative policy positions, given that he endorsed Rudy Giuliani’s campaign, so he’s left with the temperament issue.

Reiterating a point from the other day, the truth is the religious right, and leaders like Dobson and Robertson, don’t have a lot of choice here.

While guys like Rush Limbaugh will do well no matter what happens in the presidential race, movement leaders like Dobson and Robertson don’t have the luxury of being deemed irrelevant. They collect checks from donors who expect them to help drive the Republican agenda. If they can’t even stop an annoying senator like McCain, why would their followers bother sending him more money?

The same is true on the Hill. Dobson and Robertson maintain clout based on fear — it’s their followers who provide the party with foot-soldiers. If McCain can persevere despite their bitter opposition, the fear factor is gone, and GOP leaders will begin to perceive the religious right as a bunch of paper tigers. Why jump when Dobson and Robertson demand it if they have no real electoral influence?

With that in mind, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Dobson and Robertson became very active campaigners during the general election, working to undermine McCain at every turn. If they are successful, and McCain loses, Dobson and Robertson will say, “See? We still have power, and you still need to take us seriously.”

And if McCain wins in spite of Dobson’s and Robertson’s enmity, their power and influence may never be the same.

February 8, 2008 at 9:27 am

I just want as many people as possible to go on record saying “There is NO way I can every vote for McCain.”

I am confident that Dobson will live to regret his remark and end up backing McCain because it will be in Dobson’s self interest to do so.

The end result will be a loss of credibility for people like Dobson.

The more often wingnuts lose credibility the better off we will all be.

Dobson’s praying that Huckabee gets the VP slot.

Dobson and Robertson are both older than Old Man McCain. God has their influence on a relatively short fuse in any case.

I’m becoming more convinced the wingnuts know the Dems will win and are just setting up the scenario of blaming John McCain. Come January of next year, they can fundraise as the put upon underdogs while still saying “Don’t blame me, I voted for Huckabee.” Any discussion of principle is completely irrelevant.

Let’s see, a feeble old man running for president with a religious nutcase as his VP. I like it!

I’m wondering why Dobson and the rest of the movement conservatives didn’t come out for Brownback. He seems, in retrospect, to have been an ideal candidate for them all. It doesn’t seem as though the religious right ever loved Romney. Were the movement conservatives too busy selling themselves on Romney, too busy working up a hate for McCain, too enamored of Giuliani, or were they all waiting for Thompson to catch fire?

Hoping that better minds than my own can provide some insight.

Dobson’s ~~praying~~ working this so that Huckabee gets the VP slot.

These guys want to push the Huck into hear-attack distance from in charge. It ain’t first place, but it’s pretty darn close.

And if it happens, Dobson can try to argue that he’s not totally irrelevant.

And now that Republicans and conservative activists are starting to coalesce around the nominee, Dobson steps up to endorse a candidate with no shot whatsoever.

Reminds me of all the Ron Paulites on this blog’s message threads.

I’m becoming more convinced the wingnuts know the Dems will win and are just setting up the scenario of blaming John McCain.

Bingo.

The Republicans are hopeless at actual governance – everything they touch goes terribly wrong, and in any case they’re only really happy carping from the outside at the “liberals” who are doing the heavy lifting of cleaning up the GOP’s mess. Another Clinton administration would be their wet dream, but even an Obama administration would work great for them – they could be all “Barack Hussein Osama” and racial dog-whistles, 24-7.

Let’s see, a feeble old man running for president with a religious nutcase as his VP. I like it!

You’re forgetting one thing. The media.

They like McCain and will not show his feebleness. They are afraid of the American Taliban, and will not expose Huckabee’s retarded beliefs.

This will not be as easy as it might look, remember that Bush “beat” Kerry, and the reason he was able to was because of the media.

Speculation about Dobson’s and Robertson’s credibility and influence based on a McCain win is misplaced, as their influence does not rely on credibility, but on the blind faith of their followers — and that isn’t going to be shaken by inconvenient facts or events.

Hard to know what’s in the mind of folks like that, but would it be possible that they believe if they pump up Huckabee, maybe help him get more money to make a strong showing of second place, then he will be more likely to look like a viable VP candidate? And then Dobson et al could say, “Well, maybe we’ll support you if you choose the Huckster,” and gain some leverage with a McCain administration. Makes your blood run cold just to think it, eh?

Let’s talk about the assumption: only due to poor timing, Dobson will have no impact on the race.

My question is, if he had perfect timing and had endorsed Huckabee at the best moment right down to the hour, would he have had enough influence to turn the tide? Or is he simply not as influential anymore?

Dennis @ 6: “I’m wondering why Dobson and the rest of the movement conservatives didn’t come out for Brownback.”

You overestimate the principle and underestimate the pragmatism of Dobson.

Well, it’s sad to hear that Huckabee is out of money. I loved hearing the Club for Growth and other ‘fiscal’ and ‘foreign policy’ conservatives describing an evangelical as unworthy of the Republican’t nomination. Nothing seemed to work better at seperating a new generation of evangelicals from the GOP then telling them they can serve as foot soldiers but not as generals.

Ohioan at #13—– “Or is (Dobson) simply not as influential anymore?”

From what I can tell, as someone who grew up evangelical and still tracks the movement, is that he has lost influence.

Most big megachurches are not overtly political; their pastors avoid overt politics like the plague. Megachurches are all about bringing in new members quickly because they lose members pretty quickly too. The trouble with a consumer approach to churches is that consumers are fickle. They come. They go. Right now, any church or religious movement that openly identifies itself with Republicans loses members.

The other problem with Dobson’s holier-than-thou approach to the world is that he’s sees himself as more holy, more pure, more right than other evangelical leaders. Which is one reason why he is widely disliked among his peers. Many of them have been bullied by Dobson in the past and they’re sick of it.

This is a no-lose for Dobson. If miraculously Huck wins, Dobson is all powerful. If this puts enough pressure on McCain to make Huck VP as the price of solidifying the party, Dobson looks pretty darned powerful. If that happens and McCain dies, it is the will of the Lord that a minister becomes President – and Dobson looks great. If McCain doesn’t put Huck on, and loses as is most likely, Dobson claims it is because he didn’t placate the Religious Right. About the only negative is if McCain puts Huck at VP and they lose. In which case Dobson still blames McCain.

A politically smart, if electorally ineffective, move by Dobson.

Is it just me or does anyone wonder if Huck was the VP choice and McCain, how long it would take before we hear stories of how McCain loathes Huck and just wishes he had someone else? Personally, I just don’t see McCain having much patience for Huck.

‘Let’s see, a feeble old man running for president with a religious nutcase as his VP. I like it!

You’re forgetting one thing. The media.’

I’m more concerned about voters not being allowed to vote, inadequate facilities to handle voters, votes not being counted… If that is allowed to happen again, we dont deserve to win. As soon as the nominee is decided, the dems should have a transparent national campaign to determine the adequacy(in all senses) of all ballots, voting machines, parking, physical facilities. Every good democrat should know everything about the process in their precinct, make that info available to nat’l party, and scream like hell if things arent right months before the election.

I’m also more concerned about turnout. Whoever is the nominee, goods dems HAVE to work to get a good turnout. National sites should offer advice as to how to do that. Winning is not enough. The rabid beast(conservatism) is down; it must be killed.

The media are not going to do their job. That’s a given. But dems can and will win, if they do their jobs, even without a fair media.

Right now, any church or religious movement that openly identifies itself with Republicans loses members

It should also lose status as a church under the tax code, because — openly or not — that’s illegal. I guess we have to wait for a Democratic trifecta to actually enforce our laws. I think we should all probably go rob the banks now, while the Republicans are still in office. As long as we have two lapel pins, we’re protected from the rule of law: one GOP elephant and one American flag. Gahbless and good night.

Michael @ 19 –

I agree with all of that, but it will also take more steel in the candidate and the party elites.

In 2004, Kerry worked to make sure every competitive precinct in every competitive state had election law trained attorneys as poll watchers (I was one of them, despite being a hardcore Deaniac in the primary). Fortunately, all was clean where I was, but I can’t imagine doing that same job in Ohio.

And I suspect the Ohio attorneys made frantic cell phone calls all day long — only to have Kerry and the party decide not to do much about it.

So Hillary, Barack – since I know your staffs faithfully read The Carpetbagger – you should again have trained attorneys at every key precinct, but when they call with potential legal problems, be ready to go to the mattresses.

“Robertson referenced a Wall Street Journal article describing him as a “capped live volcano,” adding: “You never know when he’s going to explode…. If you’ve got a guy who’s the commander in chief with his hand on the red button, I just don’t know, I wouldn’t like to be in WWIII, and I just have a feeling he wants to show how macho he is and we might just get ourselves in something we don’t want.”

My God, I never thought I’d agree with Pat Robertson about anything, but he’s spot on about McCain.

Dobson doesn’t have “poor timing”, if fact he planned this out perfectly. He could have helped Huckabee enormously if he had endorsed him earlies, but Dobson wanted Thompson in. Dobson dislikes Huckabee but has to save face with his followers.

I agree 100% with Zeitgeist @17.

Dobson has very little downside with this endorsement. He can’t endorse McCain (the presumptive nominee), but since Huckabee is such a likely candidate for VP (at least in a lot of conservative eyes) then he can endorse the future VP and thus the ticket by extension. So he gets to put his eggs in the Republican frontrunner basket without having to do an about face on McCain. And if McCain/Huckabee lose, or Huckabee isn’t picked and McCain loses, he still has his “credibility.”

His ONLY worst case scenario is McCain picks a running mate not to Dobson’s liking, and then winning the general.

His ONLY worst case scenario is McCain picks a running mate not to Dobson’s liking, and then winning the general.

Oh, yeah – I guess I let my optimism run rampant and didn’t think through all of the scenarios that involved the R’s winning. 🙂

“With that in mind, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Dobson and Robertson became very active campaigners during the general election, working to undermine McCain at every turn. If they are successful, and McCain loses, Dobson and Robertson will say, “See? We still have power, and you still need to take us seriously.””

It’s almost enough to make me wish for a McCain victory. But I won’t sacrifice my country’s future just for a few giggles at the Religious Right’s expense.

Coral said: “Dobson doesn’t have “poor timing”, if fact he planned this out perfectly. He could have helped Huckabee enormously if he had endorsed him earlies, but Dobson wanted Thompson in. Dobson dislikes Huckabee but has to save face with his followers.”

Not quite. If Huckabee wins the nomination he’s going to be the leader of the Theocratic wing of the Republican’t party.

Not Dobson. Not any of them. Huckabee.

That’s NOT what they want.

Because for all his faults, Huckabee is a Christian first. Something Dobson, Robertson and the late Falwell aren’t.

re. #22 comment from Phoebes-
I think this is the telling statement there-
“… we might just get ourselves in something we don’t want.” Robertson and Dobson think they know so much about God’s will and are so anxious to “help” God acheive it that the only thing they have in mind is bringing about the 2nd coming via Armageddon. They are worried that McCain won’t always see things as they do, won’t always give Isreal a free pass for its behavior, and thus, put us in opposition to Isreal and thereby on the losing side in their version of the future.

Rich, isn’t it???

Zeitgeist @21

A big turnout won’t help if people have to wait hours to vote. Given the very high turnout for the primaries, the precincts should be forced to anticipate the same in the general.

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