I’m a sucker for stories about history and political trends. With this in mind, I was fascinated by a Gallup Poll analysis showing that the frontrunner in January of a presidential election year often does not end up winning the Democratic nomination. And if you’re a Dem and your favorite presidential candidate does not have the initials “HD,” you may find this report encouraging.
Gallup looked back over the 10 races from the last 50 years in which there was a “significant contest” for the Democratic nomination. The analysis omitted 1964, 1980, and 1996 when Democratic incumbent presidents were running for re-election.
Gallup found that in only 4 of the 10 elections did the front-runner in late December/early January win the Dem nomination — Stevenson in 1956, JFK in 1960, Mondale in 1984, and Gore in 2000. The rest of the time, someone came from behind as the primary season unfolded.
Let’s look at the other six races a little closer:
In 1992, an early-January Gallup poll showed Jerry Brown with a four-point lead over Clinton nationwide. (Hmm, a liberal former governor leading a Rhodes scholar from Arkansas by four points in an early-January Gallup poll…why does that sound familiar?)
In 1988, Michael Dukakis was in third place in mid-January with 10% support, behind frontrunner Gary Hart (25%) and Jesse Jackson (19%).
In 1976, Jimmy Carter was in third place in early-January with 4% support, behind Hebert Humphrey (29%) and George Wallace (20%).
In 1972, George McGovern was a distant fourth going into the election year with 5% support in a national Gallup poll, behind Teddy Kennedy (32%), Ed Muskie (25%), and Hubert Humphrey (19%).
1968 really shouldn’t count for this analysis, because by the beginning of the year, it was still assumed that Lyndon Johnson would run for re-election. He dropped out in March, causing a flurry of Dems to jump into the race. ’68 was also an unusual year for this analysis because Bobby Kennedy, who was well-positioned for possibly earning the nomination after winning the California primary, was assassinated the night of his victory.
And 1952 was another slightly unusual year. Harry Truman had not yet announced whether he’d run for re-election. But even when Adlai Stevenson was included in Gallup polling by the spring of 1952, he received very low vote percentages before winning the Dem nomination a few months later.
To make a short story long, the point is the early frontrunner doesn’t always win. Sure, every race is different and so these historical trends are better suited for interesting conversation points than reliable predictors. But, as the Gallup analysis explained, “[M]uch can and does change during the course of the campaign leading up to a national presidential election in the early months of the election year…. [W]hat we are seeing in the polls now is much like the first or second quarter score in a football game. It certainly gives us clues as to what is going to happen as the game continues to unfold, but it quite often bears little relationship to the final score when the game is ultimately over.”