Giving a boost to hopes that Democrats can reclaim the Senate in 2004, four-term Oklahoma Sen. Don Nickles (R) announced today that he is retiring from politics.
Speculation had swirled in recent months that Nickles may not run for fifth term in the Senate. The conservative lawmaker ended the suspense today, saying he didn’t want to be a Senate “lifer.”
I can’t say I’m going to miss the guy. Nickles is one of the most conservative senators in the chamber today. He’s consistently enjoyed immense support from his allies in the religious right, and when Nickles’ first ran for the Senate, his platform was the destruction of the Department of Education, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Nickles wouldn’t admit it now, but he was clearly getting restless. He made no secret of the fact that he wanted to be Senate Majority Leader, even working behind the scenes to get a promotion when Trent Lott came under fire for his racist remarks last December. Ultimately, the Senate GOP went with Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), which was probably about the time that Nickles started contemplating retirement.
Regardless, Nickles’ announcement is likely to have a significant impact on the parties’ strategies for the Senate next year. Nickles had been urged by GOP leaders in Congress and at the White House to seek re-election. If Nickles had run for another term, chances are he would have won without any Democratic opposition. This was supposed to be a race the GOP didn’t have to worry about.
An open-seat race in Oklahoma, however, changes the national equation. Rep. Brad Carson (D-Okla.) is a popular Democratic lawmaker who has been rumored to be interested in running for the Senate. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on Carson announcing his interest fairly soon.
Among Republicans, meanwhile, several current and former House members have expressed an interest, including Ernest Istook, best known for his repeated attempts to amend the U.S. Constitution on the issue of school prayer, as well as J.C. Watts, the college football player-turned politician who retired from the House before the 2002 elections. (Divisive right-wing primary fight, here we come!)
To be sure, Oklahoma tends to be a conservative state. In the latter-half of the 20th century, Republican presidential candidates carried Oklahoma in 12 of the 13 elections. Six of its seven member congressional delegation (House plus Senate) is made up of Republicans. The GOP delegation to Congress from Oklahoma is so offensively conservative, Slate’s David Plotz once recommended we force the state to secede from the Union. (I think he was kidding.)
But there’s still plenty of hope Dems can win this Senate race next year. Despite its track record, there’s still more registered Democrats in the state than Republicans. Plus, last year, professional football player-turned politician Steve Largent (R) ran for governor and was considered a shoe-in, until he lost a narrow election to Democrat Brad Henry.
Would the Senate race be tough? You bet. But every penny the national party has to pour into the Oklahoma race is money they a) didn’t plan on spending, and b) won’t be able to spend somewhere else.
In a closely-divided Senate, every race will matter a great deal. What was once a lost cause in Oklahoma is suddenly an exciting opportunity.
If Bob Graham seeks re-election in Florida, Dems pick up a seat in Illinois and Alaska, and run competitive campaigns in GOP strongholds like Oklahoma, Georgia, and South Carolina, the Senate may not be completely out of reach after all.
One last point. It’s interesting to me to see how much White House influence has fallen off over the last year. Just within the last few months, Bush and Karl Rove have personally asked a number of politicians to either run for the Senate or seek re-election, but most of them have said no. The list includes Nickles in Oklahoma, Jim Edgar in Illinois, Bob Martinez in Florida, Jim Gibbons in Nevada, Mike Huckabee in Arkansas, and Jennifer Dunn in Washington state. Each of them effectively said “thanks for your input” to the president and decided not to take Bush’s advice.
I wonder if Bush’s approval ratings hadn’t dropped so much whether he’d be a little more persuasive with some of these Republicans.