Don’t call it a comeback

June 14, 2006

News outlets are filled with items emphasizing the new media [tag]narrative[/tag]: [tag]Bush[/tag] and the [tag]GOP[/tag] have [tag]momentum[/tag] and are on the [tag]upswing[/tag]. Looking at the “[tag]evidence[/tag]” of this not-so-dramatic turnaround is like living in a Twilight Zone episode.

Knight Ridder said Bush “is on a bit of a [tag]roll[/tag].” Roll Call reported that “Republicans are taking the past two weeks’ run of good news as evidence that the party’s political fortunes may be on the [tag]rebound[/tag].” The WaPo emphasized the “spate of positive developments” that may interrupt “the president’s months-long slide in opinion polls.” The New York Daily News quoted a top [tag]Republican[/tag] source saying, “We’ve got so much [tag]good news[/tag] popping out these days I don’t know where to start.”

Please. I never root for bad news, but the recent events that have the GOP so excited aren’t indicative of a party — or an agenda — on the [tag]comeback[/tag] trail.

* [tag]Zarqawi[/tag] — There’s no doubt that killing a top terrorist in Iraq is a positive development, but this was a victory for the country, not the Republicans. Besides, Bush had three chances to take Zarqawi out before the war began, and decided not to.

* [tag]Plame[/tag] investigation — The White House faced a three-year criminal investigation that led to a top presidential aide getting indicted, the first time that’s happened in 130 years. Only a Republican could look at this and consider it good news.

* [tag]Iraq[/tag] — One well-executed, substance-free photo-op does not a policy make. The civil war continues.

* [tag]Busby[/tag] — The Republicans narrowly won a House seat in a very conservative district they expected to win easily, and had to spend $5 million to eke out a victory where the GOP enjoys a huge advantage. Why they’d find this encouraging is beyond me.

* [tag]Treasury[/tag] — After a series of top choices turned them down, the Bush gang finally found someone willing to be the Treasury Secretary. I’m glad Harry [tag]Paulson[/tag] is qualified for the job, which is more than we can say about most of the president’s personnel choices, but finding an elite Bush fundraiser to head the Treasury isn’t exactly a breakthrough.

* GOP agenda — In the last week, Congress has defeated an anti-gay amendment and a repeal of the estate tax, and appears completely incapable of finding an agreement on immigration legislation. Lawmakers haven’t passed a meaningful bill in months, and may not even try again for the rest of the year.

If these factors combine to highlight a GOP “[tag]resurgence[/tag],” then the word has lost all meaning.

Shame on you Benen for so resoundingly respinning the resurgence…

  • Don’t forget the mysterious soldiers who removed Zarqawi from the medical vehicle. It’s getting buries, but I would imagine once the autopsy is out, all hell is going to break loose.

  • Yesterday, Laura Bush was doing fundraisers in Pennsylvania and New Jersey–and the candidates (Rick Santorum and Tom Kean, Jr.) were actually present. When George W. Bush stops letting his wife do his fundraisers for Republican candidates and those candidates stand on the same stage with President Bush, then Poor George will be back.

    I just don’t see much of that happening between now and November–particularly in any blue state.

  • Good title, by the way. As someone who really makes an effort to have catchy titles, I like to recognize the efforts of others…

    LL would be proud.

  • What bounce back? Bush’s polls are still in the toilet. In fact, his approval ratings fell again, AFTER the news of Zarqawi’s death hit the papers.

  • If they spin it like this, the public will eat it, and the polls will reflect it. It’s all perception. The Republicans understand this. There is no reality anymore.

    Actually, Bush did bottom out. His poll numbers were at their lowest in April when CBS recorded the famous 29%, that went
    to 35% in May, and is now 33%. Liberal blogs are still ballyhooing 29%, so we’re a bit gulity, too.

    But it will all come out in the polls, whether the media succeeds in giving Bush a boost or not. They seem intent upon doing that. What can you do? Corporate America prefers a Republican government, and they own the media. How can their bias not filter down to the “news” they deliver?

  • I’ve got faith that Bush feeling the fresh surge of confidence will feel bold and empowered to act…and thus will step in his next political cow pie.
    Confident Bush is good news for Democrats.

  • The sad fact is President Bush has been winning the battle of the daily news cycle for the past week or so. His “wins” have nothing to do with actual policy successes. “Winning” in this context is based solely on superficial perception. Traditional media report Zarqawi, et al, as if they were good news for Bush. Reporting those incidents as successes transforms them in the public mind into successes. In the looking glass world of traditional media and the general public, when traditional media say a thing is good that act alone makes it good because, by and large, consumers of traditional media don’t look any deeper into the issues or events reported.
    [p]
    Now, we can rail against traditional media for misrepresenting the issues or events they report, as many do, but it seems to me the real fault resides in the undiscerning consumers of traditional media, our fellow citizens, neighbors and friends.

  • Even if the stock market continues to tank?

    I love how Bush & Co. take credit for when it’s good– our tax cuts are responsible!– but when it goes south then they have no control.

    To be fair, every POTUS does this, for sure. But if investors and people with 401ks continue to watch their money disappear the mood in this country will not be in Bush or the GOP’s favor.

  • Don’t worry about “the daily news cycle.” Bush can’t help himself at this point. He bound to screw something up or piss somebody off. Short of an invasion of aliens from outer space (not Mexico), he will never reach 50 percent in the approval polls again.

    Even if Iraq improves, the propped-up economy could fall. You could say that in my pessimism, I am optimistic.

  • Truth is, much as we might prefer not to admit it, we Democrats/Progressives/Liberals are many times glass half empty types while this is a total example of Republicans and their glass half full attitude. They just ignore all their bad news while we agonize over ours

  • All I can say is, if you set the bar low enough, anything seems like a ‘resurgence’.

  • Don’t call it a comeback, call it a return continuance. I do wish, purely for vengeance, that Rove hadn’t been let off (actually, I wish that smug, bloated marshmallow would get run over by beer truck).

    On the other hand, it is kind of nice to have him around reminding us and the voters what a smarmy slime-bag he has been. A fresh new face at this point would be of no vallue the Democrats.

  • From pollingreport.com, It looks like W has moved from low-30s to mid-30s. There is plenty of time for him to get to the low 40s by November – which may be enough for him to help prevent the Dems from winning a house of Congress. The GOP has managed to take very small advantages in 2000, 2002, and 2004 and turn them into big electoral wins. I’m not saying it will happen this way, I’m just saying that he doesn’t need to break 50 to still be a key factor in tight races while pulling in millions for the GOP.

  • It’s not a glass half full scenario, it’s that the press assumes that as go the fortunes for the president, so goes the fortune of this country. … And that’s a crock. W didn’t have to see if he could afford the gas to fly to Iraq for a 5 hour trip, unlike many Americans are doing about taking long driving trips.

    I agree with Zoe — the economy will be the Repubs undoing. More interest rate hikes, a softening housing market, inflated consumer prices due to energy increases, stagnant wages and out of control healthcare and education costs will be on voters minds this fall.

  • Bush’s number’s have gone up a bit because gas prices have come down a little. However, it looks like we are heading for recession just in time for the elections. The stock market, inflation, job creation, deficit, import inbalance, none of it looks good. And don’t forget, August seems to always be the month to show us what he made of. I predict Bush will hit a ceiling of 37% before reaching new lows of 26%.

  • I think the main effect will be a loosening of the Republican donor’s purse strings, and that won’t be as noticeable as the media adulation or poll numbers.

    Bush may not see a huge bounce in the polls, but the third of Americans who still support him will be bolstered. As the base becomes more confident in Bush and the GOP they will donate more, and that just makes November that much harder.

    Oh, and as far as glass half full or glass half empty, as far as I’m concerned, either way it’s 50%, and that’s failing. 😉

  • Obviously this belief in a windfall of good news is a sympton of the illness caught living in the alternate universe where up is down, black is white, and Bush is a good president.

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