Don’t get caught up in the Huck-mentum

A poll in Iowa this week showed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) a close third, right behind Fred Thompson and only seven points back from Mitt Romney, who’s in the lead. A day later, another Iowa poll also showed Huckabee in third, and closing in on second. The notion that Huckabee, who also fared well in the Ames Straw Poll several weeks ago, could finish second in Iowa suddenly seems quite plausible, if not likely.

And today, the NYT’s David Brooks pens a gushing love letter to Huckabee, describing why he “might have a realistic shot at winning the Republican nomination.”

First, Republican voters here and in Iowa are restless. That means that there will be sharp movements during the last 30 days toward whoever seems fresh and hot.

Second, each of the top-tier candidates makes certain parts of the party uncomfortable. Huckabee is the one candidate acceptable to all factions.

Third, Huckabee is the most normal person running for president (a trait that might come in handy in a race against Hillary Clinton). He is funny and engaging — almost impossible not to like. He has no history of flip-flopping in order to be electable. He doesn’t seem to be visibly calculating every gesture. Far from being narcissistic, he is, if anything, too neighborly to seem presidential.

Brooks kept going — by the time he got to “seventh…” I started rolling my eyes — but you probably get the point. The NYT columnist sees a conservative Baptist minister who seems to have a genuine understanding of the plight facing American families who are struggling financially.

Fine. Then, there’s the flip side.

First, I’d argue that Huckabee is not, Brooks’ claim to the contrary, “acceptable to all factions.” Club for Growth, which does a fair enough job representing the all-tax-cuts, all-the-time faction, hates Huckabee, and created a website devoted to attacking him relentlessly.

Second, while I agree that Huckabee does a fine job expressing concern for working-class families, he’s also an enthusiastic supporter of a national consumption tax, which is ridiculously regressive.

Third, his position on Iraq is a bit of a joke. He’s still arguing that “we broke it, so we bought it.”

And fourth, there’s no gentle way of saying this, but Huckabee is a bit of a nut.

During a house party in New Hampshire over the weekend, Mike Huckabee was asked if his Christian values would prevent him from supporting funding for safe-sex programs. Huckabee then replied that it would be more important to ask people to simply not engage in reckless behavior.

“The best thing to do is to encourage people to make good choices,” Huckabee said. “For example, if we were really serious about stopping a problem, whether it’s drunk driving, we don’t say, ‘Okay, don’t drive as drunk,’ do we?”

Huckabee offered another example: “We don’t say that a little domestic violence is okay, just cut it down a little, just don’t hit quite as hard. We say it’s wrong.”

Moreover, just a few weeks ago, Huckabee added he’s “reluctant” to support programs that promote condom use in combating AIDS in Africa.

Huckabee clearly has his media admirers. Brooks sounds smitten, and David Broder recently described himself as a “Huckabee fan” on Meet the Press. Media adulation like this can help sustain a candidate who is otherwise struggling.

But I’m really not feeling the Huck-mentum.

CB wrote: “And fourth, there’s no gentle way of saying this, but Huckabee is a bit of a nut.”

I’m still shocked by his disbelief in evolution and his attitude that this is irrelevant to being President of the United States. That anti-science and anti-empirical evidence attitude is what makes him so ready to be against condom use in Africa.

  • Funny how Ron Paul gets described as “nutty” here at the Carpetbagger Report (amongst other pejoratives), but Mike Huckabee doesn’t often receive the same kind of indignation although he supports a “theological war” in Iraq –to use his own words. Glad to see CB calling a spade a spade today.

    I’ll tell you who I think is nutty –anyone who cast their vote(s) in favor of the “Patriot” Act. Yes, I harp on that a lot, but it’s a pretty goddamn big deal to me.

  • Although I agree that he is a nut, one thing you can say about him is that he doesn’t just parrot a conservative line — look at his “conversion” on health care. If you heard him talk at the Lance Armstrong cancer event in Iowa in August, you would have heard about how in Arkansas he has supported government spending on health care and nicotine patches and hypnosis, etc. because of the 7-1 returns to the state in terms of lower health care costs. He’s not a reflexive conservative. Here’s a

    And, on the evolution point, don’t something like 75% of the people in this country not believe in evolution? Doesn’t our current preznet? Don’t discount the ability of such a person to get elected.

    Yes, there is enough to make lots of people hate him, but I would rather have him than Rudy, for example — I think that Huckabee honestly wants to do the right thing, and is willing to question orthodoxy. That’s all you can ask from somebody — the willingness to challenge things.

    I have thought for a couple of months that he would become the alternative to Rudy, and I really think he’s #2 in terms of likelihood of becoming the nominee.

  • Sorry about that prior comment — Steve, can you delete it — bad link.

    Although I agree that he is a nut, one thing you can say about him is that he doesn’t just parrot a conservative line — look at his “conversion” on health care. If you heard him talk at the Lance Armstrong cancer event in Iowa in August, you would have heard about how in Arkansas he has supported government spending on health care and nicotine patches and hypnosis, etc. because of the 7-1 returns to the state in terms of lower health care costs. He’s not a reflexive conservative. Here’s a

    And, on the evolution point, don’t something like 75% of the people in this country not believe in evolution? Doesn’t our current preznet? Don’t discount the ability of such a person to get elected.

    Yes, there is enough to make lots of people hate him, but I would rather have him than Rudy, for example — I think that Huckabee honestly wants to do the right thing, and is willing to question orthodoxy. That’s all you can ask from somebody — the willingness to challenge things.

    I have thought for a couple of months that he would become the alternative to Rudy, and I really think he’s #2 in terms of likelihood of becoming the nominee.

  • One of the pundits, might have been Bill Press, said yesterday that Huckabee is a right winger without fangs. I think that explains it all.

  • Alex wrote: “And, on the evolution point, don’t something like 75% of the people in this country not believe in evolution? Doesn’t our current preznet? Don’t discount the ability of such a person to get elected.”

    Actually, the numbers are a bit lower and somewhat ambiguous, if you read them carefully. They suggest, not surprisingly, that a lot of people don’t quite know what they believe. (I’m texting the link, since href-ing it is causing trouble in the preview.)

    http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=581

    However, your point is well taken. Huckabee’s denouncing of evolution doesn’t hurt him amongst the Republican voters. I was responding more to CB’s observation that he’s “nuts” than to his discussion of “electability”.

  • Yeah gg, Americans don’t know what they beleive…

    No, I do not think human beings developed from earlier species. 54%

    No, apes and man do not have a common ancestry. 47%

    While not a huge difference, I would still think they would be pretty much the same, since it is the same question.

  • Where the Huckster does well, IMHO, is that he’s running as himself.

    Guliani shtick seems to be the crazy tough guy (but he’s in bed with the Gays and the abortionists).
    Mitt! will be whatever you want him to be and say whatever you want to hear.
    McCain has tried to turn himself into John the Baptist.
    Fred08 is has all the substance of styrofoam.

    The Huckster on the other hand is running as a compassionate conservative because that’s what he is. He has goofy ideas on taxes, but they all do don’t they? If loyal Bushites was to stay the course, why not give the Huckster a look?

    So I think he’ll do well in Iowa.

  • Democrats should warm up to Huckabee for at least one of his stances.

    Jeesh more Larry Craig jokes.

  • Jack S.: It gets even weirder when you look at recent polls (I’ve been snooping around more):

    Two-thirds in the poll said creationism, the idea that God created humans in their present form within the past 10,000 years, is definitely or probably true. More than half, 53%, said evolution, the idea that humans evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, is definitely or probably true. All told, 25% say that both creationism and evolution are definitely or probably true.

    The last sentence is quite surprising. Apparently a significant percentage of people think that the world is simultaneously 10000 years and millions of years old. I’m guessing that the problem lies more in the difficulty of coming up with unbiased and accurate poll questions for such a hot topic than the idea that people consciously believe such a huge contradiction.

  • Hucklebee is another narrow minded bigot driven by belief rather than reason. Let him run for church leader not US president. Maybe he should just say to the terrorists…”Just don’t do it, it’s wrong.” These news pundits praise those that should embarrass them, and as usual they are always wrong.

    Fear drove the “Un-Patriot Act” but many of us saw it for what it was…a means to prevent receiving anthrax in the mail. The only 2 reps in DC who were going to challenge and block the Patriot Act from coming up for a vote were the only ones who received anthrax. The Patriot Act was written before 9/11. That huge bulk of paper didn’t just suddenly appear as suggested. That huge volume of crap would have taken months to write but they claim it was only days in the writing. This has all been the biggest con job ever and it began not with 9/11 but with the beginning iof the Bush administration.

  • He is the perfect Repub FRONT MAN that the base can rally around.
    He has the same LIKEABILITY factors that were touted for Reagan and W.
    BUT
    He has the same weaknesses that will allow the Neocons, the Corporitists and the Religious Right to drive their hard line agenda under the radar of or with actual help from the MSM.
    He will actively push Alito type nominees throughout the judiciary.
    He will actively over ride science and fact based reports with ideology.
    He will restrian federal oversight of corporations by EPA, OSHA, etc
    He will allow media and corporate mergers and weaken the SEC, FCC, etc.
    He will try to repeal the Estate/Death tax along with weakening any progressiveness of the income taxes.
    He will allow Repubs candidates for Senate/House look better with his “fresh” face.
    He will give any Dem candidate a tough race and could make things close enough for repeats of Ohio and Florida.
    I think he could do well in Iowa and NH and SC and at least be the VP candidate.

  • ***gg***Noway. The problem is in the question not in how the people believe such a contradiction. Even the Pope has no problem conflating the two. That 25% (more if the question were asked properly) believe God created the earth and had a plan of natural laws that would produce through evolution a human which god breathed his life(soul)into. The two don’t disagree out of necessity and the phrasing of the question should exclude the ‘10,000’ yrs part except for the Christian right who are opposed to science. Time really only exists in our minds and reality not in Gods.

  • Oh Steve, I’m sure you could have gotten your list up to seven too, if you tried.

    Also the claim that Huckabee is “acceptable to all factions” can be made only if you don’t know what “factions” that the GOP has nowadays. Huck is unacceptable to the anti-tax loony fringe of the GOP (as you mention), but he’s ALSO unacceptable to the “afraid of the brown people” faction of the party – Huck supported a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants (known to the “afraid of the brown people faction” as “amnesty”), and that’s a mortal sin to that particular faction.

    These two issues are why Huck is not better loved by the GOP in general. Sure he LOOKS like their kind of candidate – he hits everything the SAY they want – but he’s insufficiently militant, insufficiently anti-tax, and insufficiently racist. The ONLY group in the GOP he’s going to be attractive to are the honest-to-god, single issue voters who ONLY vote on abortion and ONLY vote on abortion because they feel that it’s all about “saving the babies.” Despite what the GOP would have you believe, that’s a small constituency in the GOP – most of the “pro-life” voting bloc is the “culture warrior” voting bloc who want hard-line stances on immigration and the War in Iraq too, and Huck just isn’t the guy to deliver to those culture warriors.

  • Huckabee has received many favorable comments beyond his natural supporters for a variety of reasons. Compared to others in the religious right, he sometimes makes sense, such as when he’s spoken against school prayer as being unnecessary when people can pray privately.

    I think Huckabee often comes off as less nutty because, even though I disagree with him, he’s presenting his real views which he has thought about. He doesn’t feel a need to take the most extreme view all the time. In contrast, some politicians like Romney are obviously faking it–which might make them more dangerous as they feel they must appease the most radical components of the religious right in their attempts to appear credible to them.

    Another reason it has been easy to occasional say complimentary things about Huckabee is that he appeared to have no chance at the nomination. I might disagree with him, but at least he seemed harmless so there was no reason not to say something complimentary when he occasionally made sense, and less need to criticize when he said something off the wall. It might be necessary to reconsider how harmless he is. He still appears to be a long shot, but I’m no longer so sure we can say he has no real chance.

  • bjobotts wrote: “The problem is in the question not in how the people believe such a contradiction. Even the Pope has no problem conflating the two… The two don’t disagree out of necessity and the phrasing of the question should exclude the ‘10,000′ yrs part except for the Christian right who are opposed to science.”

    That’s more or less what I was getting at when I suggested, “the problem lies more in the difficulty of coming up with unbiased and accurate poll questions for such a hot topic…”

    The confusion in the answers suggests that the poll questions meant different things to different people, and were interpreted incorrectly by the pollsters. In other words, it suggests a not very good poll job.

  • We ignore the appeal Huckabee and Paul at our peril. Far better to pay attention to why they appeal even to some progressives in spite of some of their kookier positions. We can learn from them…

  • I’ve been a lot more favorably disposed toward Huckabee than any of the “first-tier” dimwits for two reasons. One, it simply seems like he’s not the kind of guy who will look at me and mine–all of us here, aside from the trolls–and say, “you’re not truly Americans, and you have no representation in my government”… as Bush has done. To some extent, I think McCain is like that as well, but I can tell you with absolute certainty that Giuliani will give us all both middle fingers, because he genuinely hates us, and Romney is so desperate for the support of the haters that he’ll do it too. Huckabee, for whatever reason, doesn’t seem to be fueled by the hate and rage that is the lifeblood of modern pseudoconservatism. That’s kind of nice.

    Second, the actions that make him unacceptable to the Hair Club for Growth–a greater concern for the quality of governance than self-flagellation upon the altar at the Church of Taxes Are Icky–give me some confidence that he’d run the government in a way that would take into consideration the well-being of people not rich enough to own yachts. Also kind of nice, and unique amongst the Republicans.

  • I think Huckabee is the candidate to be most feared. When I first heard him speaking (on the car raido some 4-6 months ago), it became clear to me that he was the most “electable” of all the Repub candidates. He just “comes across” as so reasonable. And even though the leadership of the Repub Party is a bunch of soundrels, it’s the voters that count in this next election. Without someone like Huckabee as the Rep candidate, a lot of moderate R’s are going to vote D in 2008; and a lot of independents will too.
    With Huckabee, the fact that he often doesn’t even sound so bad to me is why I consider him so dangerous; He can get a lot of those moderate Rep votes and Indep votes. Not good, because at root, he believes in the world view that we are “at war” with “Islamofacism”. That is the LAST thing we need now. Huckabee is another wolf in sheep’s clothing.

  • Why does Bush Hate the FISA court and love warrantless wire tapping on Americans?
    Because it lets him snoop on a class of people no judge would ever let him snoop on —
    Congressmen and Senators, (of either party). When I see Republicans supporting
    Bush policies that are politically suicidal, or Democrats (like majority leader Reid) refusing
    to honor a leading Democratic senator’s hold on a piece of legislation, I assume that the
    oddly behaving member is simply responding to an administration blackmail threat, based
    on overheard information.

  • I’d like to thank NonyNony for making my point. Of course, there’s also the possibility that he could be a representative of some group that profits from illegal immigration and he’s just pretending to be a Dem.

  • Yes, Huck – please don’t tell anyone. I’m secretly a shill for the farm industry, the construction industry, the meat packing industry, the restaurant industry, and the manufacturing industry. I spend my days hanging out on liberal boards posting random thoughts about politics in my role as “industry shill” because that’s the most effective use of my clients’ money and my time – because NOTHING convinces people to come to your way of thinking more than blog comments from a pseudonymous commenter!

    No, I’m just someone who doesn’t hate brown people and thinks that there might be a more effective use of our law enforcement resources than rounding up and deporting law-abiding, hard-working people who are just trying to make a living the way my own Irish immigrant ancestors did. The cries of “illegal immigrant” coming from the right today sound a bit much like the historical “anti-Irish” bigotry my own great-grandparents had to put up with, and it offends me as an American to watch my country do that.

    I’d love to see some immigration reform, but mainly it would involve increasing the number of legal immigrants we allow into the country every year – especially from Mexico – because bringing folks who want to work for us into the country legally would prevent employers from the exploiting them the way that they do now.

  • I’ve long thought the ol’ Huck was potentially one of the most potent candidates the Republicans have running this cycle. He comes across as very genuine, personable and down-home, he speaks very well and is an ordained minister to boot. He is also a former governor, doesn’t wear dresses or cozy up to homosexuals and has never been caught suggesting that a woman had any right to any options regarding whether to carry a child to term. Add all that to some of his zanier ideas about economic policy and you’ve basically got a right-wing crazy’s wildest wet dream of a presidential candidate.

    Let’s just hope that Giuliani and Romney don’t become so preoccupied with each other that they neglect to strangle the Huck’ster in the cradle before he has a chance to grow. If he managed to stage an end run around those two while they were too busy flogging on each other to notice, he could be real trouble down the road.

  • Why anyone takes Brooks seriously, even slightly, is a mystery. The guy writes like a mediocre high school junior, has his head up his ass, or some other worthy’s, almost all of the time, and the arrogant SOB wouldn’t know reality if he tripped over it. Why he’s fallen in love with Huckabee we’ll probably never know, but David takes one for the team all the time because no matter what the party shoves up his butt it’s always smaller than his swelled head.

  • It looks like many agree that Huckabee knows how to come across as less scary than many other Republicans.

    The question then is whether this is good or bad. Is it good that at least he is sufficiently grounded in reality to know what is somewhat acceptable to say as opposed to what scares away voters (beyond the far right)? Or is it bad that someone with his views is able to pass as being sane?

  • Only David Brooks could talk about Huckabee’s flaws as a presidential candidate without mentioning his denial of evolution.
    Only David Brooks could gush about Huckabee’s so-called “normalcy” after the disastrous years we’ve had with a good drinking buddy in the White House.
    Only David Brooks would place Ronald Reagan in the heroic mold.
    The intellectual dishonesty and myopia of this man is a weekly disgrace to the New York Times and NPR.

  • …while I agree that Huckabee does a fine job expressing concern for working-class families, he’s also an enthusiastic supporter of a national consumption tax, which is ridiculously regressive.

    Actually, the research is showing that the progressivity of the FairTax is quite credible. Prices after FairTax passage would look similar to prices before FairTax – not “30% higher” as opponents contend – competition would see to it. So, the FairTax rate (figured as an income-tax-rate-non-comparative, sales tax) on new items would be 29.85% (on the new, reduced cost of items because business isn’t taxed under FairTax – thus lowering retail prices by 20% to 30%), or 23% of the “tax inclusive” price tag – this is the way INCOME TAX is figured (parts of the total dollar).

    The effective tax rate percentages, that different income groups would pay under the FairTax, are calculated by crediting the monthly “prebate” (advance rebate of projected tax on necessities) against total monthly spending of citizen families (1 member and greater, Dept. of HHS poverty-level data; a single person receiving ~$200/mo, a family of four, ~$500/mo, in addition to working earners receiving paychecks with no Federal deductions) Prof.’s Kotlikoff and Rapson (10/06) concluded,

    “…the FairTax imposes much lower average taxes on working-age households than does the current system. The FairTax broadens the tax base from what is now primarily a system of labor income taxation to a system that taxes, albeit indirectly, both labor income and existing wealth. By including existing wealth in the effective tax base, much of which is owned by rich and middle-class elderly households, the FairTax is able to tax labor income at a lower effective rate and, thereby, lower the average lifetime tax rates facing working-age Americans.

    “Consider, as an example, a single household age 30 earning $50,000. The household’s average tax rate under the current system is 21.1 percent. It’s 13.5 percent under the FairTax. Since the FairTax would preserve the purchasing power of Social Security benefits and also provide a tax rebate, older low-income workers who will live primarily or exclusively on Social Security would be better off. As an example, the average remaining lifetime tax rate for an age 60 married couple with $20,000 of earnings falls from its current value of 7.2 percent to -11.0 percent under the FairTax. As another example, compare the current 24.0 percent remaining lifetime average tax rate of a married age 45 couple with $100,000 in earnings to the 14.7 percent rate that arises under the FairTax.”

    Further, per Jokischa and Kotlikoff (circa 2006?)

    “…once one moves to generations postdating the baby boomers there are positive welfare gains for all income groups in each cohort. Under a 23 percent FairTax policy, the poorest members of the generation born in 1990 enjoy a 13.5 percent welfare gain. Their middle-class and rich contemporaries experience 5 and 2 percent welfare gains, respectively. The welfare gains are largest for future generations. Take the cohort born in 2030. The poorest members of this cohort enjoy a huge 26 percent improvement in their well-being. For middle class members of this birth group, there’s a 12 percent welfare gain. And for the richest members of the group, the gain is 5 percent.”

    On the strength of this, it would seem well past time to scrap the tax code and think about paying for government the way that America’s working men and women are paid – when, and because, something is sold.

  • Economic treatises aside, do you really believe that by jiggering the tax system everybody can have more money? Do you approve of the idea of wealthy people paying a mere 23%, and not even on their income but just on their consumption? You can put all the lipstick you want on the Fair Tax or Flat Tax pig, but it’s still just regressive taxation that lets the richest get ever richer. Progressive taxation is, to this citizen, inherently fairer than regressive. If you want to believe otherwise, just come out and say it, no need to hide behind an academic argument. As far as I’m concerned, there should be an upper limit on assets that one person can have. Greed is no virtue, Gordon Gecko’s claims notwithstanding.

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