Edwards declares Democratic race ‘over’; will endorsement matter?

May 15, 2008

With most of the Democratic Party’s heavyweights already having weighed in with their presidential preferences, there were a few high-profile holdouts who remained on the fence. Near the top of the list was John Edwards, who made quite a splash when endorsing Barack Obama yesterday in Grand Rapids, Mich.

John Edwards gave his long-awaited endorsement to Senator Barack Obama on Wednesday, bolstering Mr. Obama’s efforts to rally the Democratic Party around his candidacy and offering potential help in his efforts to win over working class white voters in the general election.

“The Democratic voters in America have made their choice, and so have I,” Mr. Edwards told a roaring crowd of more than 12,000 people here in the Van Andel Arena, on a day when Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton was trying to capitalize on her victory on Tuesday in West Virginia and convince superdelegates and contributors that she still has a chance to capture the Democratic nomination.

“There is one man who knows in his heart that it is time to create one America — not two — and that man is Barack Obama,” Mr. Edwards said at an event that resembled the closing night of a party convention, with the two men standing arm in arm and waving as the crowd chanted “Yes we can!”

Edwards added, “The Democrats have made their choice. The primary is over.” For the Clinton campaign, the Edwards endorsement was problematic enough, but that sentence had to sting a bit.

While Edwards has rejected talk of future political aspirations, the NYT noted last night that the former senator has privately told aides that “he would consider the role of vice president, and favored the position of attorney general, which would appeal to his experience of decades spent in courtrooms as a trial lawyer in North Carolina; and his desire to follow in the footsteps of Robert F. Kennedy, one of his heroes.”

So, what’s the likely impact of Edwards’ Obama endorsement? There are two schools of thought on this.

This can make a big difference.

Edwards’ appeal is strongest among working-class whites, who’ve been largely skeptical about Obama, and who might be inclined to give Obama a second look in light of Edwards’ support. This might be even more likely if Edwards begins actively campaigning for Obama.

For that matter, Edwards’ endorsement helps signal the end of the Democratic nomination fight, and may help pull still more undecided superdelegates off the fence. Plus, the timing of the announcement was huge — Edwards shifted the story away from Clinton’s landslide victory in West Virginia, and gave Obama some major headlines in Michigan, where he’s largely starting from scratch.

This won’t make much of a difference at all.

In general, endorsements don’t amount to much, and Edwards’ base of support in the party is relatively modest. Even his support among working-class whites is probably exaggerated. If Edwards had thrown his support to Obama in February, it might have had a greater impact. Now, it’s less significant.

I suppose which of these you embrace depends largely on your disposition.

Post Script: And what of Edwards’ delegates? I’ve seen competing estimates, but it appears the former senator has between 16 and 19 pledged delegates, and will likely get a couple more in June at the Iowa state convention.) They’ll probably switch to Obama, with Edwards’ encouragement, but they’re free to back Clinton if they choose to.

This definitely can be used to put to rest the lie that Obama cannot get the support of white voters and that somehow uneducated white voters are so much more important than the rest of Americans that support REAL liberal and progressive ideals.

Because Obama has also been a media sensation – literally drawing tens of thousands to events – perhaps the media will have to be more “objective” when they cover Edwards and the issues he has expertise in.

The MSM has done everything it can to keep Edwards from getting his message out – hooking up with Obama has to be a good thing for all concerned.

Edwards understands what progressives have actually stood for. Edwards know what it is like to take action. Edwards is more than empty rhetoric.

It is time to wrestle control of the Dem party from the crowd that is all talk/blog and no action.

Given that Americans overwhelmingly want change and that even extremely repug districts are not safe this year, 2008 represents a unique opportunity in history to take back the proud tradition of liberal and progressive politics.

And to those that don’t want to see that happen – no problem – if we have an honest vote count, you won’t matter anyhow.

  • His endorsement came at a very interesting moment. Immediately following West virginai, one week before Kentucky. Everyone knew for a long time that Obama would lose both of those states to Clinton. I’ll be courious to see if Edwards campaigns seriously in Kentucky for Obama. The timing of the endorsement could very well be a test to see if there is a difference in the West Virginia and Kentucky results. If Edwards stumps for Obama in Kentucky and the result is an improved showing that will probably telegraph the direction Obama will go with his vp choice. Obama/Edwards could be a very strong ticket, but Edwards will have a spot in an Obama adminstration whether its as vp or AG. I think the important thing is whether John Edwards can help in Kentucky. If the answer is “yes” then we’ll definitely see a “workingclass white VP.”

  • Though the radical party division certainly plays out the Two Americas division this year (as always), this endorsement is more about One Party than it is about One America. Like the NARAL endorsement, this once is a show of much-needed leadership. Edwards intentionally waited until it was “too late to make a difference” in terms of delegates – because the point is not to choose the nominee but to begin rebuilding the party.

    I loved Edwards’ speech. I was a very strong Edwards supporter for POTUS, and I was deeply disappointed when he dropped out. However, I would much rather see him as AG than as VP. I would like him in a position of real power, AND as far as campaign strategy goes, I think Obama needs more contrast – preferably a governor who strongly supported Clinton and will help deliver a key swing state (yes, I do mean Strickland).

  • Edwards endorsement is a bigger nail in the Clinton coffin than most, but coming so late has athe not-so-faint smell of political opportunism on Edward’s. While yesterday’s timing was great, If he’d announced prior to PA and made some critical appearances, he might have helped Obama more. If he makes some critical appearances during the general, relating his campaign points to Obama’s, he still might help. I never thought much of his campaign, but would have voted for him simply because of the issues he was raising. They’re still valid. AG would be a good slot for him. Or HUD, even though I wouldn’t wish that job on an enemy.

  • LOL. little bear, i assume you’re one of those all blog no action types – when would you possibly have time to act when you are constantly posting here? 🙂

  • PJ

    Gotta agree with you on the two points of your last paragraph. I loved Edwards’ speech, too. And I’d rather see him as Obama’s AG than VP. It sounds to me as if he’d prefer that, too.

    If he actively campaigns for Obama with the same message he had in his own campaign, I think he’ll draw many “working class” Americans to Obama. This is not an issue that McCain has addressed at all as far as I know, with his war whoop-de-do statements and his ignorance about financial and economic problems.

    I’ve thought that Edwards’ supporters have probably moved on to choose someone to support after he dropped out and have wondered what his delegates would do. His coming out in support of Obama and campaigning for Obama will likely turn most of them to Obama if they weren’t already.

  • I’m from Ohio so I’d love to see Strickland on a ticket. But I’m not sold on him with Obama, because he came out AGAINST Obama, not just in favor of Hillary.
    When Hillary went after Obama for his Health Plan ad that she said was an attack on her, there was Ted, nodding away in agreement.

  • aristedes gave shout to PJs second paragraph, so i’ll agree with the first. i think Edwards’ timing made a lot of sense (and likely waiting until it was realistically over was the only way to keep peace at home – Elizabeth could kick his ass). He looks like the guy leading the unity effort, which was what I always assumed he and Gore were saving their chips for.

  • Doubt Edwards’ endorsement will have much effect on voters in Kentucky, nor was it expected to. Most voters in this primary season made up their minds a long time ago.

    It does, however, send a strong message to superdelegates that the party is closing ranks around the nominee and invite those who haven’t yet come forward to do so. In its timing, it also absolutely coopted the media at a time when Clinton would otherwise have been getting the positive coverage. So it’ll likely do no more or less than it was intended to.

    Add me to the people who’d like Edwards as AG or HHS secretary.

  • Wilco – Obama will not offer Strickland a VP spot, and neither will Ted accept if he did…

    Also Edwards as AG sounds good, but I like Edwards as Labor Secretary even better – when was the last time Labor Dept had a strong Union advocate? Plus, that’s what Edwards does best as opposed to his law background.

  • This is going to put a big dent in whatever’s left of Fortress Hillary—but it’s going to do some heavy damage to McPhony’s aspirations. Just the idea that Obama could put Edwards in at AG has got to be sending chills through the GOPer spines—whatever spines they’ve got left, that is—because he’ll not only offer the middle-class (especially those lunch-bucket types whoi rallied around HRC) a polar reversal to the “Gonzorrhea/Moo-kaka” era, but he’s likely the one guy who can bring the Bushylvanian Cartel to justice.

    Oh, yeah—this is good. Very good….

  • and to the list of positives about the Edwards endorsement Maria, beep52 et al have started, I would add that it ensured big crowds, excitement, and tons of media play in Michigan. gee, why would that matter? Hopefully at some level, even if subconscious, Michigan is feeling the love from such a big announce being made on their turf.

  • This might seem a bit out there, but you have to wonder what effect the Edwards endorsement might have on certain white working class voters simply because of what the media says it might have. In other words, might those people who aren’t solidly against Obama be more open to giving him a shot because the media says John Edwards will help him do that? Like I said, the idea sounds weird, but consider the effect of the media narrative on John McCain as a maverick.

    I also want to see numbers on white working class voters in Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, as opposed to those in West Virginia and Kentucky. Might he have an alleged problem with those voters in certain states only?

  • Edwards missed his opportunity to make a big difference. He knew we had a close race on our hands, and if he has any smarts he knew who was closer to his positions. But he failed to endorse, for whatever reason, until a winner had emerged, and his lack of leadership made the last two months possible. I welcome Edwards to the party, but he’s way late and he really could have made a big difference, because by now most or all of the Hillary folks would have gotten on board and we’d be taking down McBush instead of fighting a Clinton zombie campaign.

  • The impact of the endorsement will be far greater with regards to media coverage of the campaign than on actual votes. Clinton was already receiving only a minimal boost from the media after West Virginia, and the Edwards endorsement distracted attention even further from the win. It doesn’t matter much that it won’t affect the vote much as Obama will win by this metric regardless of endorsements, and there aren’t many states left to vote.

  • Three words to give Dickhead Cheney his final, fatal, heart attack:

    Attorney General Edwards

    Actually that should cause a mass infarction among the whole gaggle of back-alley assassins, bank robbers, perverts, and war criminals who make up the Bush Administration.

  • Oh, and in about the middle of the second Obama administration, change those three words to four others:

    Mr. Chief Justice Edwards

  • I think the endorsement was late. It was meant to step on the Clinton Win WV Big story (decided on Tuesday my ass). And if it doesn’t mean an improvement of Obama’s numbers in Kentucky over West Virginia you can count Edwards out as VP and lucky to get AG.

    I see that the ‘new politics’ includes stepping on your opponents message and achievements to promote your own interests. Different how?

  • AG Edwards would be great, but forget about any prosecution of Cheney, et al. They will all be pardoned before noon on 20 Jan 09. The only possible exception is Bush, but the Supremes may be sufficiently weighted to rule that he can, in fact, pardon himself.

    The only the AG Edwards could do would be to clean house, although government civilians are immune to the political machinations. Many of those placed in the DoJ are government civilians.

  • I think Edwards as AG might finally bring up the question: “Does a pardon remain valid if it was granted with the intention of covering up a crime?” If he can fight that fight, and win, we’ll see Cheney and the other Bushylvanians looking for their suicide pills PDQ….

  • As a voter from Michigan, I definitely noted where the announcement took place … this was a strategic move and the timing was pretty good. Yes I think Edwards could have made a bigger difference earlier in the Democratic primary, but Obama crushed Hillary in NC anyway. Perception-wise, a 15-point victory probably isn’t that much different from, say, a 20-point victory that Edwards *might* have provided.

    Let’s face it, all moves by the Obama campaign are now designed for the general election, and this one was a reach out to both working white class voters and Michigan.

  • Brian (#15) said: I also want to see numbers on white working class voters in Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, as opposed to those in West Virginia and Kentucky. Might he have an alleged problem with those voters in certain states only?

    As a matter of fact, Brian, you have hit the proverbial nail on its head. Obama has trouble in Appalachia with working class whites. There is an excellent analysis of this phenomenon, including some very good historical background (which is only wrong in saying that immigration into Appalachia was east to west, instead of north to south, which it was, coming down from the old Northwest Territory, which was why there was an anti-slavery tradition) over at Talking Points Memo, likely now on the second page at the home page.

  • Give us a break with the tortured analysis, already. The punditry is neck deep here.

  • I see that the ‘new politics’ includes stepping on your opponents message and achievements to promote your own interests. Different how?

    Whew, the rampant sore losing of this campaign has resulted in some bizarre and amusing twists from some Clinton supporters pretending that Obama’s message of change means he’s not a politician. To hear some of them tell it, the only way Obama could prove he’s serious about wanting a better way of doing business in the party and in Washington is by…losing to the person who represents the old style of Democratic leadership.

    Dood, we’re running a nomination process here. If Clinton can’t grab the Republican-owned media’s attention now after a huge win, how could she possibly manage to do so in the fall? 🙂

  • Now if Obama picks Edwards for the running mate, we’ll have something to talk about. I have lots of friends who backed Edwards, were truly disappointed he dropped out so early, and are considering not voting at all if Obama gets the nomination. I understand how they feel.

  • This endorsement is meaningless, and his timing was insulting, to try and take the glory away from Hillary’s landslide victory in such a way was truly disgusting, but it does not erase the fact that she won by 41 points in W. Virginia.

    If in fact HRC wins the overall popular vote and the super delegates do not switch to her, they have effectively stated that the popular will of the people means nothing and the person with the stronger GE polls and the most votes should NOT be our candidate.

    On to Kentucky and Oregon, Obama had better hope he wins Oregon convincingly and doesn’t get his ass whipped in Kentucky as bad as it was last week in W. Virginia.

  • Edwards has lost two elections including his own state. Thats right Edwards, you can show Obama how to lose gracefully.

    Now that Senator Cllinton has won more votes, the delegates should go with the will of the people and Obama should quit.

  • This is Obama having no back bone to formulate his own candidacy by accepting an endorsement of one who opposed him with opposite view points. This is frightening because Obama has not proven longevity toward policy making in his first term Senate. He said he was for gay rights yet has taken on this endorsement, which looks like a possible VP ticket share, who was strictly opposed to gay rights druing his previous campaign with Kerry. I remember watching the debate and crying thinking my own party sold me out. I know Obama was arrogant to run this year. But I didn’t think he would alienate the gay community. A wolf in sheeps clothing is always a Republican. Hillary is the only one who will stand by her word and policies.

  • West Virginia needs to secede from the Union. They have proven that they want to be alone, as Marlena once said. To not vote for Obama just because he is black embarrassed and angered Caucasian people who are not racists. Edwards is one of them. And for Hillary to capitalize on their ignorant thinking, instead of criticizing them for it, makes her look very small and short-sighted. She is taking all those African-Americans who are her supporters and camp workers for granted by not chastising West Virginians for being out of touch with the rest of the country. This is what she should have told them the day of the election in West Virginia: “I am telling all of you, don’t vote for me just because I am Caucasian. Vote for me because I am the best candidate.” This I could respect.

  • As I was listening to Edward’s endorsement speech last night I was amazed at all the things he says Obama and the democrats are going to do to right this country. Personally, I am middle of the road so I am yet undecided which party to go with but to hear Edwards say all the problems they are going to solve kind of turned me off. It made me realize that he is just saying what people want to hear. If it were that easy to do all he said it would have been done already at some point in the last 200 years. How naive of him and people that support obama to think that once obama takes office he can “change” Washington. Have you forgotten about all the lobbyist that will squash any types of reform attempted. Obama will not be able to control how Congressmen vote but the lobbyist can and will and do. Plus, who is going to pay for this grand idea? The tax cuts being reversed will not be enough.

  • So now its about the popular vote. Never mind that the only way her royal highness is ahead in the popular vote is if you count the votes for her in MI and FL but don’t count votes in caucus states. I thought this was about delegates. I am so amused to see the shifting justifications. First it was “small states” or “caucus states” don’t really count. (Yeah, WV is really a huge state). Then it was only “swing states” and the popular vote didn’t matter. Now that its possible that under some twisted metrics she might have the lead in the popular vote, its all about the popular vote. Except…it ain’t. It’s about who has the most delegates at the convention. Personally I think the DNC rules committee should tell MI and FL to stick it where the sun don’t shine. They broke the rules knowing that it meant they would be stripped of their delegates.

  • Ah, the Clinton trolls are back.

    Face it, children. You’ve lost. Obama is ahead in the popular vote (the *real* count, not your gerrymandered version), delegates won, and states won. Clinton fought well but came in second in every measurable way.

    Try to act with the same class your losing candidate is acting with, now that the primary is over.

  • What a slam dunk Edwards and Obama together on stage. The message is right on and the momentum is back!!! Look at the revolutionary campaign and money raised by Obama. Do not underestimate what he can do. With John Edwards bringing us together, it is a powerful message. The grassroots organization brings in money like never before in history. It speaks and the government will have to listen.

    Hillary is old world. It is a tired old fear mongering message. It is a divisive message. “Working class white people support me”. We don’t need that in the Democratic party.

  • Now that Senator Cllinton has won more votes …

    Not in this reality she hasn’t.

    And how in the holy hell can all the Clinton folks whine about the “will of the people” when their candidate won in a state (Michigan) where she was the only one on the ballot>

    Sweet lord … the only place that could be considered a democratic election is in Russia.

    From shifting what it takes to win (first is was delegates, then it was states, then it was states that matter, then it was the popular vote, then it was states again, then it was a new number of needed delegates, and now it’s back to the popular vote), to throwing mindless and false crap out there without any thought whatsoever, a lot of you remind me of the average Freeper than an actual Democrat.

    It truly is sad to see so many folks so out of touch with reality, and so intent on destroying everything and anything that gets in the way of their preferred candidate.

  • I’m for Edwards as AG. Even if he doesn’t prosecute Bush/Cheney/et al, he has a lot of work to do bringing the laws back to the side of democracy and away from torture and kangaroo courts in Gitmo…

  • People have suggested Edwards for Attorney General. He’d be a good one, no doubt. But I’d rather see him as Vice President.

    The Attorney General’s office has been so politicized by the Bush Crime Family that it ought to be restored to its presumptively non-political stature. Edwards could do that.

    But he’d be far more effective if he occupied the clearly political office of Vice President. What I’d particularly like is for him, as VP, to head a Presidential Commission dedicated to tracking down and prosecuting war criminals, a la the Truman Commission of WWII. He could broaden his Commission’s function to reverse all the Bush Crime Family’s distortions of our democratic government.

  • I’ve never been that impressed with Edwards, myself. He got put on the Dem ticket in 2004 because he was tagged as a good campaigner, but then he disappeared while Cheney ripped Kerrey a new a–hole twice a week until the election. Timing on the anouncement served mainly to upstage Clinton for a day. What will determine if it’s worth anything in the long run will be if he can put NC in play in November. That should be Edwards’ main goal.

  • 25 hours a day? – funny you should ask – I can key faster than people talk. But more important, at least I am willing to discuss the difference between our cyber-conversations and real action.

    You aren’t, just spew crap – probably a regular at atrios and c&l too

    ROTFLMAO

  • Yep one loser supporting another, that makes good sense, I hope they go down in flames. The Good Ol’ Boyz club is still alive and well in Washington.
    I bet they even slap themselves on the back side.
    So nice to see that they both are so weak that they had to team up to beat Hillary.
    She is that good.
    They did this at the last few debates before Edwards lost big, so no suprise here, and the voters haven’t completed their job, when did an endorsement take the place of a voter?

  • uuuuummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…

    sam…..

    clinton is more of the “ol’ boys club” in washington than either Obama or Edwards.

    concern trolls pretend to be dems and then argue that we have to go against the majority of dems and trash democratic ideals by pandering to the least educated white vote because if we don’t become racist copies of the repugs, well, then we are not dems…

  • Wow, white voters without college degrees supported Clinton by over 60%. Shows you can take Cletus and Clayboy out of the confederacy, but you can’t take the confederacy out of Cletus and Clayboy.

    I have no respect for Clinton and their clan anymore. or Klan I should say….

  • Anti-Clinton Pathetic A**holes, as most “progressive” men have always been. Nice to know they’ve kept the low-end gene pool trait within the family.

    And really nice way to insult blue-collar working class voters. Hit a little close to home?

    Well, Obama and his crew have insulted just about every voting constituency necessary to win a GE: Women, the over-45 crowd, seniors, Jewish voters, Catholics (you know, those who are religious, whether you like it or not), non-urban (aka rural) voters, voters with less than $50K lying around to play with, and just about anybody else who doesn’t live in urbia, call themselves a member of the “creative class”, sit around and ponder their navals all da and, of course, the young.

    Good luck capturing the WH with that crowd. I guess you missed the MEMO: older voters alone comprise the majority of voters these days. But, hey: just keep on dissing and minimizing them/us. You think we’re pissed now? Wait…

    For some good reading, you should check out David S. Broder’s WaPo OP-ED yesterday and John Mercurio’s OP-ED over at MSNBC. Ignoring WV voters was a very bad decision on Obama’s part.

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