This morning I’d made a bunch of notes for a post about whether the delegate-free Democratic primary in Florida was of any real consequence. The Clinton campaign, not surprisingly, was aggressively making its case that it did, the Obama campaign argued the opposite.
My conclusion was going to be that it mattered if the media said it mattered — what Clinton hoped to gain was a boost in momentum, driven by a perception of success. If Americans saw a lot of footage today of Clinton surrounded by cheering Floridians, with reports about her “big victory,” then the results from Florida would matter, possibly quite a bit. If not, it was largely inconsequential.
In this sense, John Edwards’ announced departure — initial media reports started around 9 a.m. — was awful news for the Clinton communications team. All of a sudden, the results from Florida, and the discussion of their significance, vanished. The withdrawal of a top-tier candidate vs. a primary with no delegates? It was no contest.
(I’m not suggesting the Edwards campaign intentionally sought to step on Clinton’s win in Florida, just that the timing didn’t help the Clinton campaign’s case.)
We talked earlier about some of the big-picture significance of Edwards’ announcement, but let’s go a little further with some of the details. The Democratic Convention Watch Blog, for example, tackles what happens to the delegates Edwards already won.
First, all of his superdelegates go back into the no endorsement pool. (Give us some time to get the posts updated). Second, his 4 delegates from New Hampshire and his 8 delegates from South Carolina will go to the convention as Uncommitted. And finally, his delegates from Iowa don’t exist anymore, but will be replaced with Clinton or Obama delegates. That’s because delegates to the national convention haven’t actually been picked yet in these two states. There are Congressional District and state conventions still to come, and all his delegates to the Congressional District conventions will have to vote for one of the remaining candidates to the state level convention.
And what about Edwards voters?
That’s considerably more complicated. Just yesterday in Florida, for example, 47% of Edwards backers said they would be “satisfied” with Clinton as the nominee, and 13% said they would be “very satisfied.” Similarly, 47% said they would be “satisfied” with Obama as the nominee, and 19% said they would be “very satisfied.”
Looking outside Florida, John Judis finds other states’ exit polls offer a mixed message — Dems who backed Edwards in Iowa and South Carolina show a “slight tilt” towards Clinton, but that wasn’t the case in New Hampshire.
Either way, both Obama and Clinton wasted no time this morning praising Edwards and reaching out to his supporters. Edwards apparently called his rivals last night, telling them that he was considering dropping out, and asking if they would be willing to pledge to make poverty a top issue of their campaigns and presidencies. Both Clinton and Obama, not surprisingly, agreed.
Moreover, Obama was first out of the gate with an effusive statement, noting that Edwards “has spent a lifetime fighting to give voice to the voiceless and hope to the struggling, even when it wasn’t popular to do or covered in the news.” Given Edwards’ frustration with his lack of media coverage, the statement showed that the Obama campaign was sensitive to the former senator’s concerns. Clinton quickly followed suit with praise of her own — and one-upped Obama by saluting Edwards on her campaign’s homepage.
As for endorsement talk, it’s the one question everyone’s curious about, but which we won’t be able to answer right away. An Edwards campaign aide said the former senator won’t make any endorsement “for the moment,” but wouldn’t rule out the possibility of an endorsement before Feb. 5.
Plenty more to come, I’m sure.