I mentioned this briefly earlier, but the NYT had an interesting report today on the state of John Edwards’ campaign, and I suspect Edwards fans won’t find it at all encouraging.
Even his closest advisers are acknowledging that he no longer expects to come in higher than third place, in the state where he was born [South Carolina] and where his campaign had anticipated a strong showing.
And one thing was obvious from Mr. Edwards’s performance in Nevada: the already-murky rationale for continuing his campaign had suddenly become much less clear. […]
[H]is aides have said privately that they do not expect Mr. Edwards to win a single primary state. And the results of the Nevada caucuses threw the campaign’s top advisers into hours of strategy meetings Saturday night, debating how the shellshocked campaign could feasibly continue.
In the end, the campaign held onto its longstanding position of simply hanging on. “There’s just no reason not to go to South Carolina, pick up delegates and watch the dynamics of the race play out for a while,” one adviser said.
The advisor’s quote was oblique, but the meaning is pretty clear. Edwards will settle for third-place finishes, indefinitely, and keep picking up a few delegates here, a few delegates there. That will likely give him some relevance at the convention, should it remain a close contest. Edwards can also continue to “watch the dynamics,” which effectively means, “see if one of the other two stumbles badly.”
Is Edwards going to win the Democratic nomination? At this point, that seems unlikely. Should he drop out? That depends entirely on what Edwards hopes to achieve in the coming months.
Josh Marshall notes that talk about Edwards being “obligated” to drop out seems foolish.
…I can see supporters of Hillary or Obama wanting him to get out. That makes sense to me. But I don’t see any reason that Edwards is under any obligation to get out of the race as long as his supporters are willing to fund his campaign.
And in the case of Edwards specifically, I would say two things. First, as others have noted, his campaign has had an effect on this race out of proportion to his poll support in as much as he’s forced the two other leading candidates to grapple with issues they would not have otherwise. And in this race specifically, there is at least a chance we could come into the convention with neither candidate having a majority of the delegates, in which case he might play the kingmaker. Not likely, but not impossible.
Just to be clear, I don’t have any brief for Edwards campaign. I think it’s clear his support is falling off now as the race becomes more and more a Clinton/Obama race. The result in Nevada must have been a sobering wake-up call. But I don’t see where insider know-it-alls get off saying he’s under some sort of obligation to ‘do the right thing’ and pack it in.
Agreed. There’s simply no reason that compels Edwards to get out of the way. He doesn’t have a day job, and he’s doing what he wants to do. It may be embarrassing to Edwards personally to come up short time and again, but that hardly speaks to any obligations to stop trying.
But then there’s the next step in thinking this through. Edwards isn’t under an obligation to withdraw, but if he’s not going to get the nomination, and he doesn’t expect to win any of the remaining primaries/caucuses, he’ll have to consider his campaign in a strategic way.
I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Edwards appears to prefer Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton, so his future in the race may consider who benefits from his ongoing presence.
Chris Bowers made a compelling case last week that the longer Edwards stays in, the more it helps Obama, at least through Feb. 5, most notably in the South.
Obama is dominating Clinton among African-Americans nationwide, and even stronger in states where campaigning has actually taken place. Edwards draws very little of the African-American vote from Obama, but is competitive for white southern votes. This means that in states like South Carolina (Jan 26th) and Georgia (Feb 5th), Obama’s lead is largely dependent on Edwards staying in the campaign. In Alabama, which will take place on February 5th, Obama leads Clinton 36%-34%. However, that lead would be gone if the 9% of voters who support Edwards, most of whom are white, have to choose only between Clinton and Obama. While there are no recent polls out of other February 5th states, like Kansas and Missouri, given the strength of Edwards in those two states, I imagine the situation is very similar. Further, while Obama’s winning or losing in Arkansas, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Tennessee is not dependent on Edwards staying in the campaign, for exactly the same reason I cited in the previously mentioned states, Obama’s delegate totals from these other states will probably be better with Edwards in the campaign than with Edwards out of the campaign. In every case, Edwards will take a larger bite out of Clinton’s advantage among white voters than he will from Obama’s advantage among African-American voters. […]
Obama’s only chance in this campaign is if Edwards stays in the race through February 5th, and stays in the double-digits in just about every state through February 5th. If Obama can put together a string of victories from January 19th through February 5th, he might be able to compete with Clinton one on one. Right now, however, he can’t do that. So, if you are an Obama supporter pissed at Edwards for staying in the campaign, or frustrated that Edwards has maintained large support online, remember this: if Edwards drops out, or sees his poll numbers collapse before February 5th, this campaign is over.
Something to consider.