So this is what it feels like to have a good election year. I’d almost forgotten.
Just 24 hours ago, National Journal’s Charlie Cook, a non-partisan election analyst, said, “For Republicans, pulling out a statewide victory anywhere would at least slow the snowballing anxiety and pessimism that is pervading the beleaguered GOP.” That sounded about right, but it didn’t happen.
Dems won the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, while defeating all of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ballot initiatives in California. The Republicans’ saving grace was New York’s mayoral race, where an up-until-recently liberal Dem gave the GOP its only high-profile victory.
The Republican spin, at first blush, sounds fairly compelling. Dems won in Virginia and New Jersey in 2001, they say, but it didn’t mean a thing in 2002.
But a closer look at yesterday’s results highlight just how poorly things went for the GOP. Kaine not only won in Virginia, he won by a larger margin than expected, in a very “red” state, with a progressive message. Corzine not only won in New Jersey, he cruised to an easy victory against some of the nastiest Republican smears in recent memory.
As for the president, Bush rallied to Jerry Kilgore’s aid the night before the election in a state Bush won easily just 12 months ago. It didn’t help Kilgore — nor did it help soothe GOP anxiety about the political power of the least popular president in recent memory.
Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, seconded that assessment. “I think the basic lesson is that Bush is at a point where he is going to pull down all Republicans a few points in 2006,” he said. “He has got to restore a good 10 points on his popularity if Republicans are even going to hold their own in ’06.”
Sabato added, “[Are the results] a harbinger? Who knows. But it’s unadulterated bad news for Bush and the Republican Party and great news for Democrats as they attempt to make a comeback in 2006.”
Virginia’s results, in particular, offer all kinds of warning signs about the Republicans’ decline.
Especially ominous for Republicans were the results among swing voters in suburban and exurban communities across northern Virginia.
Kaine significantly increased on Warner’s 2001 margins in affluent but socially moderate suburbs outside Washington, such as Arlington and Fairfax counties. Those results could reflect the weight of Bush’s dwindling approval rating among independent voters — which sagged to 29% in one national survey released Tuesday — and a backlash against the conservative positions Kilgore emphasized on such social issues as gun control, the death penalty and gay adoption.
Even more intriguingly, Kaine also ran well in the fast-growing exurban communities that have become an increasingly important stronghold for the GOP not only in Virginia but around the nation. In 2001, Warner lost both Loudoun and Prince William counties, the two largest northern Virginia exurban counties, by nearly 7,000 votes. In 2004, Bush beat his Democratic opponent, Sen. John F. Kerry, in those two counties by nearly 22,000 votes.
But late results showed Kaine leading Kilgore in both counties.
One more election result of note: voters in St. Paul, Minn., crushed the only Dem office holder who endorsed Bush last year. Former City Council member Chris Coleman routed Randy Kelly by a more than 2-to-1 margin. It’s petty of me, but I’m glad.