I know there have been occasionally strained relations between House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) and progressive activists, but I think he’s on firm ground this week, urging the caucus to show some resolve in the political fight against the White House over war funding. This is the right message at the right time.
A memo from a top House Democrat says party leaders must not yield to White House pressure on Iraq and should cast President Bush as increasingly detached from public opinion. […]
In a memo to party leaders, Rep. Rahm Emanuel says that so long as Democrats continue to ratchet up the pressure on Bush, the president loses ground.
If Bush continues to refuse to negotiate, his “continued insistence on a blank check for the war will only further damage his standing with the American people,” wrote Emanuel, D-Ill., a member of the House Democratic leadership.
Emanuel said he believes Democrats should continue to push to negotiate with the president. Despite differences, “there are areas of agreement that should offer fertile ground for negotiation and compromise,” he wrote.
That’s good advice, and an encouraging message. I hear occasional rumors that there are some Dems on the Hill who are wavering, worried that they’ll lose a showdown over war funding with Bush. Emanuel is reminding them that this is no time for backing down — Dems are pushing the right policy and have the country behind them.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) appears to be on the same page, insisting today that Dems will send Bush a bill by the end of the month that will include some sort of timetable for withdrawing troops, though the details are open to some negotiation. “Certainly we’re not going to back down on what we think is right for the country,” Reid said.
Indeed, for every Dem who looks back at 1995, and the Gingrich/Dole decision to shut down the government (twice), the Center for American Progress reminds us that this is an altogether different dynamic.
The debate in Washington over Iraq has been narrowed to a basic choice: whether to endorse a blank check for President Bush to continue his war in Iraq, as conservatives are demanding, or to begin the safe and responsible redeployment of U.S. forces, as Congress has endorsed. Put on the defensive, Bush has adopted a strategy “patterned after Bill Clinton’s 1995-96 showdown with the then-Republican Congress: shift blame to lawmakers for failing to fund the troops.” Bush’s arguments justifying a veto are easily debunked. But the power of the president’s bully-pulpit have some in the media suggesting that Bush will end up victorious, as Clinton was. The problem is that President Bush is no President Clinton, and defending an unpopular policy of war without end is much different than fighting to preserve Medicaid. Bush cannot recreate the outcome of 1995-96 because he is missing the crucial ingredient that ensured Clinton’s success — the support of the American people.
Prior to the first government shutdown, which began on November 14, 1995, Clinton’s job approval ratings were “significantly higher than Bush’s are now.” The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research “noted that Clinton had a 54 percent job performance rating in a November 10-13, 1995, ABC/Washington Post poll and a 52 percent job performance rating in a November 6-8, 1995, USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll.” Meanwhile, Bush’s approval ratings are lodged in a ditch. According to Gallup polling, Bush’s poll numbers have been mired in the 30s for seven consecutive months. “Since the advent of modern polling, only two presidents have suffered longer strings of such low ratings. One was Harry Truman, whose popularity sank during the final 26 months of his tenure as the Korean War stalemated. The other was Richard Nixon during the 13 months leading up to his resignation amid the Watergate scandal.”
In 1995-96, “polls also showed stronger support for Clinton’s position on the budget problem that led to the shutdown than for the position held by the then-Republican-led Congress,” as Media Matters documented. Days before the first government shutdown, the New York Times reported “a continuing erosion of public support” for the conservative budget program, with Americans opposed 45 percent to 35 percent. A USA Today/CNN poll released on November 10, 1995, “suggested Americans by wide margins have soured on the Republican agenda, with 60 percent saying he [Clinton] should veto the budget bill and 33 percent saying he should sign it.” In contrast, a CNN poll last month found that 58 percent of Americans “want to see U.S. troops leave Iraq either immediately or within a year,” with a majority saying they “would rather have Congress running U.S. policy in the conflict than President Bush.” According to a March Pew poll, 59 percent of Americans wanted their congressional representatives “to support a withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq by August 2008,” while a March Gallup poll found 60 percent of Americans “favor a timetable for withdrawing all U.S. troops from Iraq by fall 2008.”
Note to Dems: Do. Not. Cave.