Two significant new polls were released in the last 24 hours, both of which are welcome news to supporters of Wesley Clark’s campaign.
First up is the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup national poll that shows Howard Dean continuing to lead the race for the nomination, but by a far smaller margin than before.
Just a month ago, Dean, enjoying a bounce after receiving an endorsement from Al Gore, had a huge lead in Gallup polling. In a poll released on Dec. 14, Dean had 31% support against Clark’s 10% — a 21 point gap.
The new Gallup poll released yesterday, however, shows a much tighter race. (margin of error +/- 5%)
Dean — 24% (down from 31% in mid-December)
Clark — 20% (up from 10% in mid-December)
Kerry — 11% (up from 10% in mid-December)
Lieberman — 10% (down from 13 in mid-December)
Gephardt — 9% (up from 8% in mid-December)
Edwards — 6% (up from 4% in mid-December)
The other three below 5%
This is easily Dean’s smallest lead — within the poll’s margin of error — since the Fall. While it appeared that Dean’s national support was surging to new and perhaps insurmountable heights, these Gallup results show Dean’s lead shrinking, not growing.
This poll, however, was taken before Dean received an endorsement from Bill Bradley, though it’s unclear exactly how much that support will help. The poll was also conducted before Clark’s new tax reform plan, which has been well-received, was unveiled.
A closer look at the Gallup results show that Clark’s new-found strength has come as a result of support from Democratic men. Since December, Clark has picked up 14 points from men, compared with only a 6-point increase among women. In fact, among Dem men voters, Clark is now the top choice among the field of candidates, not Dean.
Of course, all of this reflects national support, and as I’ve said many times, national poll results aren’t nearly as important at this stage as state polls. After all, it’s a state-by-state race for the nomination. Fortunately for Clark, there’s some good news there as well.
The American Research Group started a daily tracking poll in New Hampshire the day after Christmas, in which ARG combines daily polls in three day groupings — Jan. 1-3, followed by Jan. 2-4, then Jan. 3-5, and so on.
As of Dec. 26-28, the top three candidates in New Hampshire (the only three in double digits) were as follows:
Dean — 37%
Kerry –19%
Clark — 12%
As of today, however, Clark has surpassed Kerry for second place. From the Jan. 4-6 grouping, it’s:
Dean — 36%
Clark — 16%
Kerry — 13%
Unfortunately for Kerry, these results may be even worse tomorrow. ARG analysis explained that Clark was in front of Kerry by 4 percentage points on Sunday and by 6 percentage points on Monday.
Obviously, Clark would benefit greatly from a strong second-place showing in New Hampshire, and like Clinton’s second-place finish in N.H. in ’92, the media would give Clark a boost as a result of a “better than expected” finish. It would also be a valuable momentum builder going into the slate of Feb. 3 primaries a week later.