Endorsement Watch — Some jump in, some wait

It’s been a busy 12 hours on the presidential candidate endorsement front, so let’s take a quick review of which candidates have lined up what support.

Barack Obama has been faring well among California’s newspaper editorial boards, winning the endorsements of practically all of the state’s largest newspapers, including the Oakland Tribune, the San Francisco Chronicle, the San Jose Mercury, the Sacramento Bee, the Modesto Bee, the Santa Cruz Sentinel, and San Francisco Bay Guardian. Today, however, Obama picked up the biggest of them all, receiving the LA Times’ endorsement. (The LAT decided to make its first endorsements since 1972.)

Democrats preparing to vote in Tuesday’s California primary can mark their ballots with confidence, knowing that either candidate would make a strong nominee and, if elected, a groundbreaking leader and capable president. But just because the ballot features two strong candidates does not mean that it is difficult to choose between them. We urge voters to make the most of this historic moment by choosing the Democrat most focused on steering the nation toward constructive change: We strongly endorse Barack Obama. […]

In the language of metaphor, Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama is a poem, lyric and filled with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and competent executive, but Obama matches her in substance and adds something that the nation has been missing far too long — a sense of aspiration.

On the other side of the aisle, the LAT backed John McCain.

At a different moment in American history, we would hesitate to support a candidate for president whose social views so substantially departed from those we hold. But in this election, nothing less than America’s standing in the world turns on the outcome. Given that, our choice for the Republican nominee in 2008 is sure and heartfelt. It is John McCain.

McCain opposes abortion and rejects the right of gays and lesbians to marry — two positions we reject. He supports the war in Iraq, whereas we see this nation’s interests better served by a prompt and orderly withdrawal of U.S. forces. But the Arizona senator’s conservatism is, if not always to our liking, at least genuine. It reflects his fundamental individualism, spanning his distrust of big government, his support for immigration reform and his insistence on a sound American foreign policy.

Of course, the LAT was hardly the only endorsement of note.

California’s SEIU is making the switch from Edwards to Obama.

The Service Employees International Union made its decision two days after its first choice, John Edwards, dropped out of the race.

“Obama’s pledge to ensure working families have a strong voice, that health care is not a luxury and that our children are given the tools to succeed best represents the values that our members care about,” said Annelle Grajeda, president of the SEIU California State Council.

The 650,000-member union’s backing could help Obama cut into Hillary Rodham Clinton’s lead in the polls among Democratic base voters, many of whom are union members.

Gay Republicans are making the switch from Giuliani to McCain.

Gay Republicans are in a state of mourning over Mayor Giuliani’s exit from the presidential race, but they are moving swiftly into Senator McCain’s fold despite concerns that he has not always been faithful to their agenda.

Bill Richardson won’t endorse until after Feb. 5, but he certainly seems to be moving towards Clinton.

CNN has learned that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will watch the Super Bowl this Sunday with former President Bill Clinton in Red River, New Mexico.

Despite the obvious implications for the much sought after endorsement of Richardson, a Hispanic who holds sway in the community, a top Democratic source describes this as “two old friends getting together, and not to be “construed as a coming endorsement.”

Nonetheless, Richardson is not unaware of the power of that picture. The former president has been phoning Richardson “with regularity” since he dropped out of the Democratic presidential race.

In Connecticut, a closely-watched Feb. 5 state, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D) will announce her support for Obama today.

DeLauro will be the third House member from Connecticut in recent days to throw support behind Obama. Reps. John Larson and Christopher Murphy also announced endorsements this week, providing a boost to the Illinois Democrat in one of the 22 states to cast ballots on the February 5th super primary.

DeLauro is also a superdelegate to the 2008 Democratic convention; she had backed Sen. Chris Dodd — for whom she had once served as chief of staff — before he ended his presidential bid.

John Edwards is staying on the sideline — for now.

Sources close to John Edwards tell CNN not to expect him to endorse either of his former presidential rivals before Super Tuesday. “That’s just not something he’s going to do,” said one source.

So is Chris Dodd.

And one of Obama’s highest-profile endorsers is headed back to the campaign trail.

On Sunday, Oprah Winfrey is returning to the presidential campaign trail to headline a California event for Senator Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has yet to announce details, but people familiar with the event say the television talk show magnate will join Michelle Obama at a campaign rally in the Los Angeles area.

Never a dull moment.

I’d call Richardson an endorsement for Clinton. Don’t be surprised if he endorses sometime tomorrow before the Super Bowl. It will be hard not to if your offered the VP job.

  • One other Obama endorsement that shouldn’t be ignored is Paul Volker, Fed Chairman from 1979 to 1987 (appointed by Carter, reappointed by Reagan). He was replaced by Greenspan and almost immediately the stock market crashed. He’s not completely uncontroversial, though. Bloomberg.com says “Volcker risked his reputation on a 1979 strategy to raise interest rates and crush inflation that soared to 13 percent that year. His policy produced a 16-month recession in 1981 and 1982 and a 10.8 percent unemployment rate in December 1982. But the consumer price index, which had risen to 14.8 percent in the year ending March 1980, fell to 6.8 percent two years later and 3.6 percent in March 1983.” He also led the investigation a couple years ago into fraud in the UN.

  • Rasmussen—the tracking system that many Fortress Hillary fans seem to rely on, now has Hillary over Obama, 43-37. Gosh, people—what happened to that insurmountable 25-point lead that was being bandied about less than two weeks ago? He’s gaining now at the rate of 1 to 2 percentage points a day now, which puts him well within striking distance by Tuesday.

    And that’s “before” all the heavyweight support moved into his camp….

  • I think this is going to be a close race for the Democrats. Whoever wins will need all of us to support them. While I have already voted for Clinton, if Obama is the nominee I will set aside my reservations about him and do what I can to get a Democrat in the White House.

  • I’VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE: Gore got more votes, but with media adoration and endorsements [except NYT] going to Obama, even if HRC wins more (pre-convention) votes, won’t Super-Delegates reason it was probably because of racism, and put Obama over-the-top, saying he’s more electable? With home prices in free-fall, people want inflation. With trillions in unfunded liabilities, Washington needs inflation. And who better to order a withdrawl from Iraq; HRC or BHO? Add charisma, and it all points to an Obama win.

    And like Gore in 2000, the Clinton’s may be in for some potentially ghoulish [political] death throws, and should look for an exit, because Hillary can’t win, and doesn’t want the V-P job, so there’s no upside? Back in the Senate she’d get $10 billion for her Universal Pre-K, and Bill can go back to his charitable foundation work while the rich still have money to burn?

  • As nice as it is to get the endorsements, how many people do you think, when they head to the polls, have made it a contest not about one candidate against another, but about the endorsements?

    If you think about it, what, exactly, do most people even have in common with those doing the endorsing? For the most part, they are made by people who live in worlds that the rest of us just do not inhabit, whose concerns are not the same as ours. And how many people read the newspaper these days, much less take to heart what their editorial boards have to say? Pauk Volker? I agree that he knows economics, but ask the next 10 people you encounter while you’re out doing errands today if they know who Paul Volker is and if they care who he’s voting for, and I will be shocked if you find a single person who knows who he is or cares who he’s voting for.

    Of all the endorsements, those made by the unions are probably most influential, if they are coming from the rank-and-file.

    As for the shrinking leads, what did you expect? We now only have 2 candidates, not 8 – and those candidates are both good ones. It may be not so much that people like Hillary less, but that they know Obama better and realize they like him, too.

  • I think Anne (#6) summed up my feelings about endorsements. I’d just add that public endorsements seem more like a one-up game played among the endorsers than for the benefit of the voters or even the candidates. You and I express our views here. Celebs (show biz or political) do the same thing but on a larger stage. I see no reason to respect anyone’s opinion simply because they’re famous. Often that’s reason enough to question their opinion.

  • Anne, People running errands may not know who Paul Volker is, but people who watch CNBC, Bloomberg, subscribe to Money, Forbes, or the Economist, or know more than the marital status of Alan Greenspan do. For those concerned about experience on economic issues, and who know anything about economics, this is a big endorsement. If you have read Malcolm Gladwell’s “Tipping Point,” these people are the mavens, and they are influential.

  • In the 70’s, the Ford Administration launched a p/r campaign called WIN (Whip Inflation Now!). But it took the Federal Reserve, under then Chairman Paul Volker, raising interest rates to well over 10% to bring inflation down. Causing by-the-way a deep recession.

    Now, with home prices falling and record debt levels, the new rallying cry is SIN (Start Inflation Now!). And spending by an overwhelming Democrat majority could do that (again). But in a clever head-fake, the Obama campaign trumpets Volker’s endorsement…It’s not unlike when Bush ran against Gore, he’d mention regulating greenhouse gases. But after the election Ari Flieischer in effect proclaimed “That’s a big no!” And so EPA Administrator Whitman resigned.

  • Yuor average uninformed citizen might well remain unaware of endorsements, and politically aware citizens have probably already made up their minds about high-profile races.

    Nonetheless, a Volker-level endorsement undoubtedly opens coffers and support networks. A Kennedy-type endorsement also opens connections and provides donor lists and the like, and probbaly can shift conventional wisdom among Washington insiders & pundits. People do go out of their way to buy newspapars to check endorsements (and newspaper endorsements can also be influential with people like me who follow politics fairly closely but still end up pretty ignorant about judges and most state politicans). And even if all else fails, a high-profile endorsement garners a quick mention on TV news in a way that is much better than a “Vote for me” ad.

  • Paul Volker? I agree that he knows economics, but ask the next 10 people you encounter while you’re out doing errands today if they know who Paul Volker is and if they care who he’s voting for, and I will be shocked if you find a single person who knows who he is or cares who he’s voting for.

    Among people I know, Paul Volker is considered a stunning “get.”

    Volker is well-respected by people on both sides of the political spectrum — for a certain (admittedly limited) demographic that includes quite a few semi-conservative or politically amorphous intellectuals, Volker’s endorsement carries a lot more weight than Teddy Kennedy’s or Al Gore’s or Bill Clinton’s endorsement ever would. The fact that Volker felt like it was important to weigh in after all these years is interesting in itself.

    I suppose it’s a matter of perspective. In the grand scheme of things, you’re right. The average person doesn’t give a shit about Paul Volker, and endorsements have limited effectiveness. But that doesn’t mean it’s a worthless endorsement to everyone.

  • As nice as it is to get the endorsements, how many people do you think, when they head to the polls, have made it a contest not about one candidate against another, but about the endorsements?

    If you’re already passionate about one candidate it probably doesn’t matter. I’ve decided for Obama, and when the NYT – which I respect quite a bit – endorsed Clinton, I didn’t so much as twitch in her direction.

    But I don’t think many people are strongly on one side, they’ve decided on rumors or surface details, and an endorsement essay from a newspaper they trust IMO could change their minds.

  • Having all the major papers stand behind an Obama campaign will, whether the Hill-istines want to admit it or not, make a difference. People in California read newspapers. Minorities and immigrants in California read them, too. What’s Fortress Hillary gonna do—sneak around and steal all the newspapers? They’re everywhere—on the bus, in the back seat of a cab, on a table in every restaurant, on the check-out racks of the groceries, and in the classrooms and libraries. An editorial endorsement can go into a million places that a television can’t—and that extrapolates into the voting community as the number of papers choosing to take this course increases.

  • All the major dailies favor Obama. All the major elected Democrats (SF Mayor Newsome, LA mayor Villaraigosa, Senators Feinstein and Boxer) favor Clinton. Not sure what that means. Newspapers want something new? Politicians want someone as corrupted as they so they know they can deal?

  • 4. On February 2nd, 2008 at 10:39 am, jen flowers said:

    I think this is going to be a close race for the Democrats. Whoever wins will need all of us to support them. While I have already voted for Clinton, if Obama is the nominee I will set aside my reservations about him and do what I can to get a Democrat in the White House.

    Whoa, obviously someone hasn’t gotten the memorandum from the “cool” Democrats Progressives that Hillary is one and the same as W and the Neocons. If she had, she would know that the 90’s under Bill were no different than the W error era and that W to Hillary would be a seamless transition. Please try to keep up. You aren’t allowed to say you are supporting and will vote for the Democratic candidate. Another Republican and more of the same would be much more desirable than Hillary. Personally, I’m voting for the Democrat regardless.

  • According to Newsweek, Obama just picked up another interesting endorsement (though much less influential than Volker in my opinion) – Susan Eisenhower – Ike’s granddaughter.

    Newsweek calls her “more than just another disappointed Republican”

  • Endorsements matter because they’re publicity, and because they can provide an authority to make it “okay” for a wavering voter to choose a candidate who they like but they’re not sure is worth committing to. In an age of 24-hour cable news and the Internet, that’s not as important as it used to be, but it’s still something.

  • My knowledge of economics is sort of foggy, but given that inflation is the devaluation of the dollar, wouldn’t deflation be far more preferable in the long run?

    I understand that deflation would probably deepen the recession for the short term, but it would greatly help the economy in the long term, as would “fixing” NAFTA and the like. Obviously throwing money at things hasn’t really helped if recent history is any clue.

  • I do not think endorsements are about influencing individual voters as they head to the polls. In addition to access to fundraising resources, they are about creating a narrative or refuting a narrative and drawing that all important “MO” to your side. I think they can also cause some voters to take either a second look or a a more serious look at a candidate they may otherwise pass by. Many of my friends consider themselves to be “fiscal conservatives / social liberals.” Since they think McCain is really a social liberal waiting to be “set free,” I could see them gravitating to him. A Volker endorsement could cause them to check into Obama to find out what someone like Volker sees in him.

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  • EXACT OPPISITES: Although President Bush and I are both originally from Texas, he’s a nice guy who takes tough action, whereas I (sometimes) am a mean guy who (compared to those I’m being critical of) is a pathetic pushover…So again, apologies!

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