How bad have things gotten for Bush since the debates started? Even Gallup says he’s losing.
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry head toward their third and final televised debate this week with voters increasingly pessimistic about the economy, the war in Iraq and the battle against terrorism, a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.
Unease about the country’s direction has eroded Bush’s job approval rating into dangerous territory for an incumbent president. And Kerry holds a decided advantage on the domestic issues that will be the focus of their last face-to-face encounter.
In a head-to-head race, Kerry leads Bush 50%-48%. In just the battleground states, Kerry is at 48%, Bush at 45%.
While I still believe national polls have a fraction of the importance of state polls at this point, it’s worth noting that this is the first time Gallup has shown Kerry leading in the race since July.
A couple of other interesting tidbits from the Gallup data:
* Bush’s approval rating — the most reliable measure of a president’s election prospects — has dropped to 47%, the lowest since July.
* Kerry is preferred on almost every domestic issue over Bush, with an edge of 29 points on the environment, 19 points on health care, 13 points on the federal budget deficit. He also holds an advantage on handling Medicare, Social Security, education and the economy.
* If the Gallup data, which has consistently been weighted in Bush’s favor, is to be believed, we’ve seen a whopping 15-point turn-around in just one month (Bush had a 13-point lead on Sept 13, while Kerry has a two-point lead now). Ruy Teixeira would know better than I, but I’m hard pressed to think of a similar swing in any presidential race in recent history.