Civilian casualties remain high, sectarian groups can’t get along, al Qaeda in Iraq is still pulling off high-profile attacks and “to date, Iraqi leaders remain unable to govern effectively,” said the declassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate released Thursday.
The intelligence community briefed the media on the assessment hours after senior Bush administration officials told CNN the classified version of the report expressed doubts that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is able to lead the war-torn country.
The report concluded that al-Maliki may not have the ability or capacity to “push forward” legislative reforms, according to one of the officials who read the classified version.The declassified version, however, points to the security situation, political system and economy as hindrances to Iraqi progress and states that improvements in these areas are “unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.”
In other words, for all the talk about “progress” and “turning the corner,” the reality is just as we’ve feared: Iraq isn’t getting better and there’s no reason to believe it will improve.
Indeed, the intelligence estimate indicated that security conditions are precarious (Iraqi security forces have not improved and are still dependent on us) and political conditions may get even worse “over the next six to 12 months.”
Let’s not brush past that too quickly. According to the best intelligence we have, no matter what we do in Iraq, if we stay, there is no reason to expect conditions to be any better in August 2008 than they are in August 2007.
This tidbit from the AP report is a real gem:
The estimate says that Iraqi Security Forces, working alongside the United States, have performed “adequately.” However, it says they haven’t shown enough improvement to conduct operations without U.S. and coalition forces and are still reliant on others for key support.
The findings could provide support for the Bush administration’s argument that coalition forces need to stay in Iraq in order to avoid letting security lapse, should they withdraw from certain areas.
Iraqi security forces still can’t operate, which means we should stay to help them. Except, if they could operate, we should still stay because two effective armies are better than one. And if they could kinda sorta operate, well, you get the picture.
And what about Maliki? Spencer Ackerman explains.
The NIE doesn’t predict that he’s going to be ousted — legally or otherwise. Rather, it seems that the intelligence community thinks Maliki will remain in office out of fear among Shiite leaders that “searching for a replacement could paralyze the government.”
The trouble is that the government is paralyzed right now. The cardinal factors characterizing Iraq’s political scene are Shiite fear of losing dominance, inter-factional fighting, and Sunni unwillingness “to accept a diminished political status.” Levels of “insurgent and sectarian violence remain high.” Most importantly, no meaningful political compromise is assessed to be likely “unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.”
The reaction from Harry Reid’s office is a pretty solid response.
“Today’s National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq confirms what most Americans already know: Our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the President’s escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people.
“Our troops have done everything asked of them and more. Unfortunately Iraq’s leaders have not. And as today’s NIE makes clear, a political solution is extremely unlikely in the near term. Further pursuit of the Administration’s flawed escalation strategy is not in our nation’s best interests Every day that we continue to stick to the President’s flawed strategy is a day that America is not as secure as it could be.”
I don’t doubt the White House and its like-minded allies are going to argue that this latest estimate is exactly what they wanted to hear, and further proof that the status quo is exactly what we need in Iraq. I only wish I were clever enough to imagine just how foolish their talking points will be.
Frankly, how anyone outside the Weekly Standard and Joe Lieberman’s office can perceive today’s news as anything but a disaster is beyond me.