I’m not quite sure why, but some conservative [tag]Republicans[/tag] seem excited about the fact that that their constitutional amendment to [tag]ban[/tag] [tag]gay marriage[/tag] will lose this year, but by a smaller margin than last year.
A majority of the [tag]Senate[/tag] this year will support the [tag]Federal Marriage Amendment[/tag], an outcome that both the left and the right say will energize their respective bases in November.
In the summer of 2004, the effort to define [tag]marriage[/tag] as between a man and a woman failed in the Senate, on a 48-50 vote. Now that [tag]Republican[/tag]s have increased their majority, the amendment has collected more support. If all senators vote the way they did in 2004 and the freshmen vote as expected, the bill will attract 52 votes — well short of the 67 needed to amend the Constitution.
First-term Sens. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), John Thune (R-S.D.) and David Vitter (R-La.) have all co-sponsored the amendment. These four legislators replaced Democrats who voted against the amendment in 2004. Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), who won the seat vacated by Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), has also co-sponsored the new legislation.
Bill Frist has already promised the base a vote in June on the so-called Federal Marriage Amendment ([tag]FMA[/tag]), and everyone knows it’s not only going to lose, but it’s not even going to be close. Proponents don’t even have the votes for cloture.
In this sense, the vote on the FMA will just be political theater. But who, exactly, are the theatrics for?
The right will be reminded that, despite a huge GOP advantage in the Senate, they’re still 15 votes short of sending the amendment to the states for ratification. The left will be reminded that most Republicans want to enshrine bigotry into constitutional stone. And the middle will be reminded that the Republican majority can’t seem to govern, but it can devote limited time in an election year on a divisive measure that they know in advance can’t pass. Even Bush has indicated he has no plans to invest time and political capital in an amendment that will inevitably fail.
So what’s the point? Even if the idea is to rally the far-right base before Election Day, isn’t the message essentially, “Vote GOP, so we can lose the vote on the FMA again next year”?