Bush may want a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but unless he’s figured out a way to get one ratified without the U.S. Senate, it doesn’t much matter.
Several sites are posting updated head counts on senators’ positions on the so-called Federal Marriage Amendment. With a two-thirds threshold for passage, 34 senators can block this proposal from moving forward.
And it looks like that’s not going to be a problem.
Josh Chafetz at Oxblog has a running tally based on specific statements made by the lawmakers about the FMA. So far, he’s identified 33 senators (27 Dems, 5 Republicans, and 1 Independent who caucuses with the Dems) who are formally opposed. That’s not including several Dem Senators who will definitely vote against this but whom Chafetz has not yet heard from, including Feinstein (D-Calif.), Harkin (D-Iowa), Inouye (D-Hawaii), Kohl (D-Wis.), Lautenberg (D-N.J.), Levin (D-Mich.), Lieberman (D-Conn.), Mikulski (D-Md.), Reed (D-R.I.), and Sarbanes (D-Md).
When you start to add these senators to the mix, one starts to see that the amendment not only won’t get two-thirds, it may have trouble getting a bare majority.
Like Josh Marshall, I find it encouraging that there are so many Republicans who have already expressed opposition, including everyone’s favorite New England moderates — Chafee (R.I.), Collins (Maine), and Snowe (Maine). But it’s also great to see a few unpredictable GOP mavericks — Alexander (Tenn.), Hagel (Neb.), and McCain (Ariz.) — announce they’ll vote against it, too.
I don’t like making predictions, but it’s safe at this point to say this amendment will not be passing Congress this year. They’ll probably try again next year, with some fairly significant changes in the Senate’s makeup due to a series of retirements, but with a little luck, the amendment’s backers won’t have an ally in the White House to lead the call anymore.