Speaking of polls, I thought I’d take the luxury of updating an item Ryan Lizza wrote for The New Republic in May. (Sorry, Ryan, if I’m stealing one of your ideas)
There’s plenty of attention, with some justification, focused on the Kerry vs. Bush poll numbers. But let’s not forget a different number, which got more attention before the Dem primaries: presidential approval ratings.
In March, Bush pollster/advisor/guru Matthew Dowd offered us this gem:
“Normally, presidents finish roughly the same as their job approval numbers.”
I happen to largely agree. In fact, with this quote in mind, I thought I’d take a look at how Dowd’s boss is doing right now.
Bush job approval:
Washington Post/ABC News (July 30-Aug. 1): 47% (tied for the lowest of his presidency)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup (July 30-31): 47% (tied for the second lowest of his presidency)
Newsweek (July 29-30): 45% (the second lowest of his presidency)
CBS News (July 30-Aug. 1): 44% (the second lowest of his presidency)
If Bush finishes Election Day with these job approval numbers, according to his own pollster, he’ll lose.