There was a point a few months ago in which the anticipation in Republican circles about Fred Thompson’s candidacy was palpable. The GOP’s three most-competitive candidates — Romney, Giuliani, and McCain — each caused consternation, for one reason or another, among conservatives, and Thompson was going to be the guy on the white horse who would save the day.
Fairly quickly, 21 congressional Republicans endorsed the former senator, which is nearly as many endorsements as McCain and Giuliani. Polls showed him surging to second place nationally, nearly second in Iowa, a strong fourth in New Hampshire, and a strong second in South Carolina. That, coupled with support from the still-searching religious right suggested Thompson would make a credible run for the nomination.
That was the late-summer. Now, even some of Thompson’s backers are wondering whether they’ve bet on the wrong horse.
Several House Republicans who endorsed Fred Thompson for president now say that they are frustrated with what they view as an apathetic campaign, and at least one regrets having committed to the former Tennessee senator.
“I think he’s kind of done a belly flop,” said an estranged Thompson backer who indicated he will not pull his public support before the “Super Tuesday” primaries. “We’ll just wait till after Feb. 5 because I think he’s going to get beat.”
The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.
“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”
Another GOP lawmaker said, “I’ve kind of pulled back. I’m not not supporting him, but I’m not doing anything.” With six weeks to go before the first contest, that’s not quite the enthusiasm a presidential hopeful wants to hear.
The belly flop metaphor is borne out in the polls. Take a close look at the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and in each instance, you practically see an upside-down U — Thompson went down nearly as quickly as he went up. There was excitement; Thompson announced; and the excitement disappeared. His poll momentum is completely gone.
It’s clearly not over, and Thompson’s endorsement from the National Right to Life was a big shot in the arm, but it’s not exactly a mystery as to why Thompson has gone from a possible nominee to a disappointment.
One Republican lawmaker who backed Thompson said he’s been hearing from activists outside DC who are saying, “Now they’re calling me and saying ‘What’s he doing?’ It’s almost like he doesn’t want it.”
If Thompson comes up short in the primaries, as I suspect he will, the campaign will probably look back and wonder what might have been if Thompson had been a more active candidate out of the gate. Just a week after announcing, Thompson was already taking it pretty easy, limiting himself to no more than three campaign stops a day (Romney often holds six town-hall-style forums a day when in Iowa) and having no public events at all in his second week as a candidate.
It’s a pattern that’s held up, with Thompson just not hitting the trail the way his GOP rivals have.
I won’t pretend to understand why Thompson has decided not to campaign aggressively. As a late entrant, he should be hustling to do more events than his rivals, but he’s chosen a very laid-back path.
I assume when he drops out of the race next year, though, Thompson will look nice and relaxed.