I have a small confession: I really believed that Fred Thompson would be a major force in the presidential campaign. When Thompson was still in the “testing the waters” phase, he was generating quite a bit of excitement, while the rest of the GOP field was faltering. While each of the major GOP players had serious ideological and/or consistency flaws, Fred Thompson seemed to meet just about all of the party’s litmus tests.
He had some name recognition, face recognition, and fundraising potential. The media liked him. Soon after announcing, Thompson quickly picked up some support from the Republican establishment, and I thought he was well on his way.
What I underestimated was his capacity for being one of the worst presidential candidates I’ve ever seen. Today, mercifully, Thompson’s journey came to an end.
“Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for president of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people.”
The announcement surprised no one. Thompson had effectively bet his campaign on South Carolina, and he finished a distant third. Low on money, and with no prospects of ever getting ahead, Thompson quietly told Fox News yesterday that he would not participate in its Republican debate later this week, making clear that he wouldn’t be a candidate much longer.
So, what happens next?
There was some talk a couple of weeks ago that Thompson was poised to withdraw and endorse John McCain — Thompson strongly denied it — but Chris Cillizza reports this afternoon that the former senator, who has been tending to his sick mother this week, has no endorsement plans.
While one source close to Thompson suggests that several candidates have sought to reach out to him following his disappointing finish in South Carolina, campaign officials for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former governor Mitt Romney (Mass.) insist they have had no contact with Thompson.
It’s not clear what if any value would come from a Thompson endorsement — should he choose to proffer one. The arc of Thompson’s campaign has been almost straight downward since he floated the idea of running for president last spring. Polling in the late spring/early summer showed Thompson surging into the lead nationally and in key early states. But a series of staff departures, slipups and a delayed formal announcement took the shine off of the movie star-turned senator’s candidacy. Thompson placed third in Iowa, took just 1 percent of the vote in New Hampshire and, despite an intense push over the past ten days, could only muster a third place finish in South Carolina. […]
Thompson’s conservative credentials could help McCain in northern Florida and in the state’s panhandle in the increasingly crucial vote there on Jan. 29. But, if he is committed to not immediately endorsing McCain or any other candidate, that may well be a moot point.
A Huckabee endorsement seems exceedingly unlikely — Thompson is rumored to hate him — but I suspect he’ll just keep his powder dry, at least for a while.
As for his supporters, if the conservative blogosphere is any indication (and it may not be), Romney is likely the beneficiary of Thompson backers, partly because he’s not McCain.
Of course, the most obvious question is why Thompson went from serious contender to afterthought in just a couple of months, and why his poll numbers look like an upside-down U. It’s not complicated — in order to succeed as a candidate, one has to work really hard. Thompson, from the outset, wanted to be president, but he didn’t want to run for president. He expressed nothing but disdain for giving speeches, meeting voters, making appearances, and doing interviews. He would simply disappear for days, while most of the field was working furiously to rally support.
That, coupled with near-constant staff turmoil, an inability to raise money, and a jaw-dropping ignorance of public policy and current events, gave Thompson almost no hope at all.