Like last Friday, I thought I’d wrap up the week with some state-by-state polling data. All of these results come from polls conducted and/or released in the last 10 days.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Ohio Poll — Kerry 46, Bush 44, Nader 5
Comment: This is consistent with other recent polls showing Kerry capitalizing on Ohio’s poor economic growth under Bush. Expect both campaigns to spend enormous money and time on this one; Ohio is already being called this year’s Florida.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 46, Bush 43, Nader 4
Comment: Gore won Wisconsin by just .2% in 2000, but it remains a state that should go with Kerry this year. Hell, if Dukakis can win here…
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 46, Bush 46, Nader 2
Comment: West Virginia was a big disappointment for the Dems in 2000. After winning the state in five of the previous six elections, Bush carried WV by a surprisingly strong 6%. It may only have 5 electoral votes, but Kerry will definitely focus on the state this year.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 51, Bush 41
Comment: Since Gore’s narrow victory (4,000) votes, the state has become more Dem, not less. I know Bush thinks he’s got a shot here, but I think he’s wrong.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 47, Bush 43
Comment: Another state that’s gone Dem in each of the last four presidential elections, I’d be surprised if it becomes a Battleground state this year. The bigger concern in Washington is Nader support.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 47, Bush 44
Comment: Minnesota is the only state in the Union to back the Dem in each of the last seven presidential elections. It may be close, but if Kerry has to worry a lot about Minnesota, he has a bigger problem.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 42
Comment: A classic swing state, Missouri seems to be drifting further and further into the Red. I’m frankly pleased Kerry’s within seven.
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Mobile Register — Bush 59, Kerry 27
Comment: One of the reddest of the Red states, but what happens if Roy Moore jumps into the race? Hmm.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
McLaughlin and Associates — Bush 46, Kerry 42, Nader 4
Comment: Keep your eye on Colorado. It’s one three western Red states Kerry will be focusing a lot of attention on, it’s home to a major Senate race and at least three competitive House races, and as this poll shows, it’s competitive. If you live in Colorado, expect to see a lot of political advertising between now and November.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Las Vegas Review-Journal — Bush 49, Kerry 38, Nader 4
Comment: This poll is not encouraging. Nevada should be more competitive than this (Clinton won here twice), but the Review-Journal poll shows Bush with a surprisingly large lead. We can only hope that the poll was an aberration and that it’ll be closer than this in the fall.
And, finally, it’s not a statewide poll, but the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel had a very interesting poll this week about Cuban-American voters in South Florida. Since the ’60s, Cuban Americans have been one of the most loyal GOP constituencies in the country, primarily the only ethnic minority group in the U.S. that consistently and overwhelmingly backs the Republicans.
There are signs, however, that Cuban-American support for the GOP is beginning to fade. (for more background on this, check my post from last August), as the Sun-Sentinel poll shows.
Six in 10 Cuban-American voters say they likely will cast ballots for President Bush in November, a substantial drop from the support he received in 2000, possibly reflecting tensions between exiles and a White House that some in the community feel has fallen short of its tough anti-Fidel Castro rhetoric.
Bush is estimated to have garnered about 80 percent of the Cuban-American vote in the 2000 election, thanks in large part to anger over the Clinton administration’s return of Elián González to Cuba.
But in a recent poll of Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, only 58.4 percent of registered voters said they would definitely or probably vote for Bush in November.
Florida is already poised to be another nail-biter. If Bush’s support with the Cuban-American community drops to 60%, that could very well be the difference between winning Florida’s 27 electoral votes and losing them.