Friday’s campaign round-up

May 23, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* There was a little movement in superdelegate news this morning, with Obama picking up two new supporters from Congress, Reps. Jim Costa and Dennis Cardoza, both of California. This is actually a net gain of three for Obama over Clinton, because Cardoza had been a Clinton supporter before this morning’s switch. Two New Hampshire delegates for John Edwards also switched to Obama this morning.

* I’ve been wondering the extent to which age would be an issue in the campaign, but I didn’t think McCain would be the one playing the age card: “Senator John McCain mocked Senator Barack Obama here today at an airport rally, repeatedly calling him a ‘young man’ with ‘very little experience.'” McCain said, with obvious sarcasm, “I admire and respect Senator Obama. For a young man with very little experience, he’s done very well.”

* Obama indicated yesterday that he believes the idea of cutting Florida’s delegation in half would be “a very reasonable solution” to the party’s stand-off, and would mirror the punishment Florida Republicans received from the RNC. Though Bill Clinton and Terry McAuliffe have both indicated they would perceive this as fair, Hillary Clinton said yesterday this would be unacceptable, saying she would insist on 100% representation, despite having already agreed to the opposite.

* New York Gov. David Paterson, a Clinton superdelegate, criticized Clinton yesterday, saying her Florida/Michigan comments this week were a mark of “desperation.” He added, “Candidates have to be cautious in their zeal to win, that they don’t trample on the process.” Paterson went on to say that no one “in their right mind” would buy into Clinton’s approach to Michigan.

* Speaking of Michigan, 40% of Michigan voters preferred “uncommitted” when they went to the polls in January. Howard Wolfson, a senior Clinton campaign aide, said earlier this month that under a compromise, those votes could go to Obama. Yesterday, the campaign reversed course, and said the “uncommitted” had to remain that way.

* In a head-to-head match-up, Obama leads McCain by seven points in Virginia in a new SurveyUSA poll.

* Speaking of polls, Obama may have lost California’s primary back in February, but he seems to be faring quite well there now. A poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows Obama leading McCain, 54% to 37%.

* In Nevada, a state likely to be a key battleground in November, Rasmussen shows McCain leading Obama by six (46% to 40%), while Clinton leads McCain by five (46% to 41%).

* And speaking of purple states, Greg Sargent reports, “In a sign that Obama is shifting more aggressively into general election mode, the Illinois Senator will undertake a tour of three purple states — New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado — on the first three days of next week, a senior Obama campaign aide confirms to me. Obama will visit the Las Cruces area on Monday, the Las Vegas area on Tuesday, and the Denver area on Wednesday, the Obama aide says.”

* In case there are any lingering doubts, Florida Republicans are not solely to blame for the state moving up its primary to Jan. 29.

* Ted Kennedy believes his wife, Vicki, should replace him in the Senate if he dies.

Write to your superdelegates now – we have 8 days by which if 90 out of 210 remaining supers don’t decide in favor of Obama (thereby allowing Obama to give Clinton what she wishes in MI and FL), Clinton will destroy the party as she has announced (by taking the fight to the convention).

8 days, people.

  • I’m a Michigan voter. It was a clusterf**k. Among other things, I heard that a vote for uncommitted was a vote for Al Gore. There’s simply no way the original vote can be honored.

    Furthermore, since my vote wouldn’t have counted in the Democratic primary, I of course voted for Ron Paul in the Republican primary (crazy as he may be, at least he knows the Iraqi war was illegal and stupid). This action, however, would have prevented me from participating in any Democratic re-vote. I know other people who did the same thing, who would have voted for Obama if possible, and wouldn’t be able to do so in a re-vote.

    This is why you don’t change rules on the fly.

  • Though Bill Clinton and Terry McAuliffe have both indicated they would perceive this as far, Hillary Clinton said yesterday this would be unacceptable, saying she would insist on 100% representation, despite having already agreed to the opposite.

    I increasingly get the impression that Bill and Hillary Clinton rarely talk to each other. Certainly Bill doesn’t seem to find it necessary to vet his public statements with the campaign of the actual candidate for president. He’s something of an unguided missile, that guy.

    In other interesting election news, the Democratic candidate for the Senate in Mississippi is within the margin of error.

  • Ohioan,

    Eight days is a bit of an arbitrary deadline. I’m all for encouraging the supers to stand up and be counted instead of cowering under the bed pretending that this isn’t damaging the party, but Clinton has announced that she will take this to the convention if she doesn’t get the decision she wants from the Rules & Bylaws committee (seating both Florida and Michigan as is, with Obama getting none of Michigan’s uncommitted).

    Since hell will freeze over before the RBC gives her that, there’s nothing stopping her from slogging on toward August if she wants to. I see no evidence that Obama reaching 2,025 either before or after May 31 will stop her, either, unless that milestone is accompanied by a united party calling on her to stand down. Even then, who knows?

    I’m not trying to rain on your suggestion that we write the superdelegates–it’s a good one–just saying that May 31 isn’t really a magic deadline.

  • Sorry, Ohioan, I missed that in your 90-of-210 count you’re referencing Clinton’s pretend threshhold of including Michigan and Florida. My basic point still stands, though–there really isn’t anything preventing Clinton from going all the way to the convention hoping to change minds over the summer or get a second ballot. It’s insane, but there it is.

  • “I admire and respect Senator Obama. For a young man with very little experience, he’s done very well.”

    I don’t admire or respect Senator McCain. For an old man with very little wisdom, he’s fucked up a lot of things, flip-flopped on any moderate position he might have once held, started unnecessary wars, completely misunderstands the Middle East, and disrespected his first wife by leaving her for a woman he affectionately refers to as a ‘cunt.’

    John McCain is the perfect example of why elders are not to be freely given respect just because they’ve been on this blue planet longer than us.

  • I am getting so sick and tired of McCain’s condescending attitude towards Obama. Yeah, it’s true that Obama is green compared to McCain but he has no right to be disrespectful towards his colleague. I use to respect McCain but his behavior of late is really disgusting.

  • Seat the 100% of the ELECTED Florida and Michigan delegates.

    Give the uncommitted in MI to Obama. MI is then a 55-45 for HRC

    In Florida Edwards support goes to Obama. HRC got 50% of the vote in FL, Obama got 35%, Edwards got 15%. After the Edwards endorsement FL is now 50-50.

    DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES SEAT THE SUPER DELEGATES FROM FL OR MI.

    The Democratic party insiders from FL and MI are the ones who need to be punished, not the voters.

  • Yeah, it’s true that Obama is green compared to McCain…

    Alaska is green compared to McCain.
    Chocolate chip cookies are green compared to McCain.
    Zip codes are green compared to McCain.
    Israel is green compared to McCain.

    He’s old.

    According to Census Department estimates for July 1st, 2007, there are 301,621,157 people currently living in the United States – and 274,485,639 (or 91%) of them are younger than 70.

  • #2: I also read that some Michigan voters that voted for Clinton would have voted for Obama had he been on the ballot. And some wrote in Obama.

    Gov. Paterson: Ummmm, maybe you should think about changing your superdelegate vote if you’re so unhappy about her comments? Too bad if Clinton is a US Senator from your state.

    #1: I’ll call my Senator, Ron Wyden, this morning. Arianna Huffington has a list of uncommitteds:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/stop-yelling-at-hillary-t_b_103135.html
    But I’m wondering what is the best way to get in touch with the non-elected official supers from our state? At least for Oregon there are no addresses or phone numbers in Huffington’s link. And I sure don’t want to bother someone at home, should I be able to find them in the phone book…

  • Franklin is right about why a revote in Michigan wasn’t possible.

    Michigan doesn’t have formal party registration and it is common for voters to switch back and forth between the parties. As we were under the impression that Michigan wouldn’t count there were a number of reasons why people who might have voted against Clinton would have voted in the GOP primary. Some independents who prefer Obama might have voted for McCain, seeing him as the preferred Republican. Others may have voted for Ron Paul as a protest against the war. Others might have voted for Mitt Romney due to having come from Michigan.

    The vote which was held does not represent the views of Michigan voters. A revote would not have worked as those who voted in the Republican primary who would have voted in the Democratic primary if they believed it counted would not be eligible to vote in a second Democratic primary.

    The Clinton campaign must have studied about Democracy and elections from Putin. By there logic only Clinton could win. They have been trying to pack the uncommitted delegation with additional Clinton supporters, keeping uncommitted from being a real choice. Write in ballots for Obama and other candidates not on the ballot weren’t even counted.

  • Erik in Maine –

    I like the not seating any super delegates from FL and MI idea. They have shown so little leadership, both prior to the Primary and since, that their absence can only raise the quality of the delegate pool.

    Penalizing the politicians who caused this makes perfect sense.

  • Does anyone know why this would be…If you look at Hillary’s contributions by state she received 7,709,576.28 from District of Columbia this month. Going back and checking previous months shows that, by state, DC is always far and away her biggest contributer with millions each month.

    At first I thought maybe her campaign headquarters were there, so money without a state listed would be from there but a. there already is a “no state listed” column and b. she moved her campaign headquarters from DC to Arlington, VA last year.

    Looking specifically at the Obama donations month by month he never even breaks a million from DC. And, while he consistently gets big money from large states, there’s not one state that’s an outlier each month.

    It can’t be her loans, they said the numbers didn’t include her loan and the state figures add up to the $22 mil. So if individual contribution limits are $2,300 and DC’s population is somewhere around 590,000, how can it be that this month, as well as the past 3 she keeps bringing in millions upon millions of contributions from the DC area?

    I know this is ripe for snark, but I’m really curious as to how this is. There has to be a reason, these are public numbers so I doubt I unearthed something scandalous. I’m just confused as to how this could be.

  • The reception Obama got from my fellow Jews makes my head spin. How could any self respecting Jew consider voting for a candidate with the list of Anti Semitic friends and supporters he has. I remember asking my Auschwitz survivor Uncle how we let Hitler do what he did. He said even with all the evidence no one believed he was that “big a monster”. Obama is a wolf in sheeps clothing. Wake up before it is too late. It is our duty to see Israel protected. We must not help this man become President.

  • Hannah, Paterson is not a superdelegate. Eliot Spitzer was, but his vote did not get transferred. I think it just disappeared.

  • Hannah, Oops. I stand corrected. Paterson is a Superdelegate. And he has endorsed Clinton. Therefore, I agree with you 100%.

  • In case there are any lingering doubts, Florida Republicans are not solely to blame for the state moving up its primary to Jan. 29.

    I live in Florida and this is a FACT! I contacted the Chairwoman of the Dem party in Florida and asked them not to support the bill that moved FL ahead in the primaries. Their answer? “Not to worry….our nominee will ensure our delegates are seated.”

    As for Michigan, the only way that primary should be counted is if we’ve suddenly decided to support a “Soviet-style” election.

    As for Hillary, I suspect (hope I’m wrong) that her campaign will sue the DNC if she doesn’t get EXACTLY what she wants. This kind of “do whatever it takes” attitude makes her dangerous, not only to the Democratic party, but to the country as a whole. We’ve had nearly 8 years of this bullshit with the Bush administration. Never thought I’d see it from a Democrat, especially one who frames herself as a “Progressive” and a “liberal.” She’s neither.

  • On May 23rd, 2008 at 1:27 pm, Texas Mike said:

    …”It is our duty to see Israel protected. We must not help this man become President.”

    The main job of the President of the United States is to protect THIS country. The Bush administration has done more to harm Israel than any previous administration by completely destabilizing the region. Texas Mike – it is YOU who needs to “wake up.”

  • Obama is a wolf in sheeps clothing. Wake up before it is too late. It is our duty to see Israel protected. We must not help this man become President.

    Nothing to see here, folks. Just another Talk Left Clinton dead-ender in the anger stage of grief.

    (For proof, place your cursor over his name.)

  • I just talked to someone at Sen. Wyden’s office and asked when he was going to declare for Obama or Clinton and she didn’t have that information for me. So I gave her my opinion that Wyden should declare for Obama based on his 18% win here in Oregon (that was the final percentage, btw, and 108+K votes). And a few other reasons to end it now…

    ::sigh::

  • #5 Maria – “My basic point still stands, though–there really isn’t anything preventing Clinton from going all the way to the convention”

    If the supers declare Obama support before May 31st, the Rules and Bylaws committee would have no reason to EVEN take up the Florida and Michigan dispute, since Obama would have given her everything she asked for.

    That way Clinton can’t appeal her way to the convention, since there is no committee issue to appeal in the first place.

  • Florida democratic legislators did not vote against the Jan 29th primary date because it was buried in an election reform bill that they did not dare vote against. They voted for an amendment to move the date back to Feb 5th, this was of course not going to pass because it was opposed by the Republican controlled legislature.

    Voters did not ask for this, yet it is the voters who were told they should pay.

    Despite all of this, a record number of democrats showed up to vote anyhow, nearly 1.8 million in total. The election was officially counted and certified.

    The only candidate to go against their pledge to not campaign in Florida was BHO, who held a fundraiser campaign rally in Tampa last fall and he ran a national ad campaign ad in Florida the entire week leading up to the election.

    If the Florida delegation is not seated as voted this would be tragic for the democratic party, and BHO if nominated will have a very hard time winning the state.

    Speaking of winning, today HRC wins 315 to 206 based on the state by state polls, and Obama loses loses 242 to 272.

  • No, Ohioan, I don’t think that’s correct. The RBC will take up Florida and Michigan at the May 31 meeting regardless of whether Obama has enough supers by then to reach 2,025 or Clinton’s made-up number (I can’t even be arsed to look up what it is). They may decide to seat FL/MI as is if Obama has already clinched the larger number, but they do have to decide what happens to these states at the convention in any case.

    And Clinton has the right to go all the way to the convention (omitting, of course, an appeal to the Credentials Committee if FL/MI are seated as is) regardless of what the supers and the RBC do now, since no delegates’ votes are binding until they’re made on the convention floor. She’d be an utter fool and a despicable party destroyer to do so, of course, but she does have that right.

    A week ago I’d have said she wouldn’t go that far. Now, I’m not laying down any money.

  • Two things:

    1) I agree wholeheartedly with the plan to disallow all MI/FL *super*delegates from being seated. They are the main idiots who got us into this mess.

    2) Why do Bush/McSame backers always use the phrase “Wake Up” all the time? Oh, yeah, you’ve convinced me, I’ve been asleep all this time. I must have just been dreaming that the economy sucks, we’re mired in an expensive pointless war, our government illegally tortures and spies on its own citizens, and 47 million people can’t afford healthcare. Geez, all’s I needed to do was wake up, and all those problems would disappear!

  • McCain’t to Obama: “I’ve forgotten more than you’ve ever learnt”. The problem is that, due to their respective ages, McCai’t will keep forgetting more an more, while Obama will continue learning. I don’t want a turnip for a president.

  • Speaking of winning, today HRC wins 315 to 206 based on the state by state polls, and Obama loses loses 242 to 272.

    HRC would get slaughtered in the general election.

    No one is running negative against her right now.

    No one is talking about Mark Rich. No one is talking about travelgate. No one is talking about filegate. No one is asking who Bill has been sleeping with since 1996. The GOP attack machine is hanging out low, hoping against hope that HRC is the nominee so the oppo research they’ve been sitting on for 8 years can be used.

    That, combined with the fact that HRC has ostracized herself from the African-American community, would lead to the worst democratic defeat since McGovern. W/O the black vote HRC loses PA, MI, and OH

  • Looks like my links weren’t working.. Erik, these aren’t made up numbers.. go to http://www.electoral-vote.com and see for yourself.

    The trend has been the same for the past 2-3 months.. This is not new, BHO is NOT going to beat McCain in November.

    Wright, Ayers, Bittergate, and rumor has it Michelle Obama is on tape speaking out against “whitey”.

    If SD’s want to nominate a winner, they will flock to the popular vote winner and give up on the pipe dream that is Obama.

  • Greg, the point is the GOP has been laying off HRC. Coulter and Limbaugh have been actively advocating for her. They WANT her to be the nominee.

    Why is that?

    If were to she become the nominee (or even be on the ticket) the GOP would open the vault and pull out the Clinton oppo file (which is tens of thousands of pages long).

    Ayers is a neighbor of the Obamas (never convicted). Bill Clinton PARDONED Ayers colleagues in the Weather underground.

    You really want to bring back Ken Starr and Whitewater? Put HRC on the ticket and you’ll do just that.

    She might be ahead now, but she’d lose 45 states in November.

  • Greg, I’ve been a Clinton supporter (I say that past-tense because in any rational world the nomination contest is ove rand we are now in the general campaign), but I have to ask:

    1) Do you deny – regardless of why or whose fault – that MI and FL violated Democratic Party rules duly passed by a majority of the national party committee and fully known in advance to all states?

    2) Do you believe that state who – regardless of why or whose fault – violated those rules should be treated every bit as well as those who followed those rules?

    3) If your answer to (2) is “yes,” explain why anyone would ever follow the rules again and explain how we would avoid anarchy in party internal processes?

    If your answer to (2) is “no,” explain what punishment you believe would be appropriate for MI and FL to ensure that states who played by the rules have some measure of reward for doing so.

  • SMS @#15, the only reason I can think of how and why Clinton is pulling in so many millions from DC is because of lobbyists. PACs and Lobbyists aren’t limited to $2,300 I don’t think. And I think their business addresses would be the zipcodes published in the filling reports. Again, I’m not certain of any of this, she may actually have tapped into the entire population of DC and gotten the max from each voter. But I doubt it, since they went like 80% for Obama in their voting. Someone else probably has a much better answer to your question than I do. Especially since mine’s just speculation.

  • …rumor has it Michelle Obama is on tape speaking out against “whitey”. -Greg

    We’re disqualifying people because of rumors and hearsay now? Well then, Hillary Clinton is a lesbian who murdered a man she had an affiar with.

    I honestly don’t know how you’re coming up with this line that Hillary is winning the popular vote? Are you counting all of the states? Or are you choosing to include certain states who broke the rules while excluding others who didn’t? Where’s the dishonesty in your metric this time?

    Caucuses out, Michigan in! Sigh. How can you even claim legitimacy with a straight face. Pathetic.

  • And I’m with others above, strip every super delegate vote from MI and FL, they were the ones who brought this upon their states. And in that condition, I have no problem seating the states delegates in full as they voted, yes even MI. And yes, I know Obama will lose some super delegate supports from those states as well. I also have no problem if they compromise and give each del a half a vote either. Just get it done in some sort of “fair” way so that everyone has to compromise, but none of the innocents (i.e., the actual voters and the candidates who played by the rules as they were written before the start of the process, without rewarding the rules breakers so much that is might change the possible outcome.) are unduly punished.

  • HRC seems perfectly happy to not count the voters in Maine.

    Why does she want to disenfranchise me?

  • “Whitey”?

    Tell us the truth, Greg. You’re 85 years old and have been wearing the pair of Sansabelts you’re sporting today all week long, right? You got a little mustard on the fly there, pal. And your Washington palm needs its beard trimmed. The retirement village association’s not going to tell you again without a fine.

    Why does Hillary want to disenfranchise everyone in Maine, Iowa, Nevada and Washington state? And when will electoral-vote.com stop using polls from mid-February?

  • Last fall I was thrilled with pretty much all the democratic candidates, and although Senator Hillary was not my favorite, I figured she’d win, and I’d be okay with that.

    Since then I’ve become steadily more and more disappointed in Senator Clinton. I’ve read the electoralvote.com polls regularly, and I don’t think they are in the slightest bit representative of what will happen this fall. McCain has been floating along with zero criticism, and Clinton has been getting relatively little negative attention beyond what she brings on herself. McCain has nowhere to go but down as people examine his dismal record and even bleaker prospects, while Obama has plenty of potential for improving.

    Nonetheless, I realized the other day that even if the electoralvote.com predictions were as darn-near gold-plated as polls ever are, I’d still rather take the risk of going with Obama than going with a nearly-for-sure Clinton. (The many down-sides of a McCain presidency would be somewhat backstopped by a solidly Democratic legislative branch.) Maybe I’d feel different by November, but for now, Clinton’s judgement seems awful, and I don’t trust her any more.

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