Friday’s campaign round-up

May 30, 2008

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* On the superdelegate front, Barack Obama picked up three new superdelegates over the last 24 hours — Rep. Alan Mollohan of West Virginia, and Boyd Richie and Betty Richie of Texas. Hillary Clinton also received a superdelegate endorsement, with Eileen Macoll of Washington state throwing her support to the New York senator.

* House Speaker Nancy Pelosi isn’t the only one prepared to intervene to prevent the Democratic race from going all the way to the convention; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is on the same page.

* The Huffington Post had an interesting item on some of the organizers, most of whom are women, of tomorrow’s rally at the meeting of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee. Organizers reportedly said they will support Obama if he’s the nominee. One asked, “You’re not going to write that we’re a bunch of hysterical women trying to create havoc, are you?”

* As if Scott McClellan hasn’t raised enough of a fuss, he indicated yesterday that he might vote for Barack Obama.

* A new SurveyUSA poll shows John McCain leading Obama in Michigan by four, 41% to 37%. As Ben Smith noted, however, the internals show Obama winning only 62% of the African-American vote in the state, which is likely to change considerably by November.

* SurveyUSA shows McCain leading Obama in Kansas by 10 points, 49% to 39%. At least at this early stage, adding Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius to the Obama ticket would not make a significant difference.

* Clinton won the endorsement of the Argus Leader — the paper she spoke with last week when she talked about the 1992 and 1968 races going into June.

* A new Pew Forum poll shows Obama leading McCain and Clinton with the highest favorable ratings, but Obama’s support is weighed down by resentment from Clinton supporters. Obama nevertheless narrowly leads McCain nationwide.

* Conservative media mogul Rupert Murdoch is “open” to supporting Obama this year, and added that McCain “has a lot of problems.” (thanks to reader R.K.)

* Obama is reportedly in “excellent health.”

* The Rev. Michael Pfleger, a Chicago activist and Catholic priest, gave a sermon recently at Obama’s UCC congregation in which Pfleger mocked Hillary Clinton. Pfleger has since apologized, and Obama issued a statement yesterday saying, ”As I have traveled this country, I’ve been impressed not by what divides us, but by all that that unites us. That is why I am deeply disappointed in Father Pfleger’s divisive, backward-looking rhetoric, which doesn’t reflect the country I see or the desire of people across America to come together in common cause.”

* Al Franken is facing all kinds of heat for an explicit, satirical piece he wrote for Playboy several years ago. (thanks to Zeitgeist for the heads-up)

* In 1988, Bill Clinton encouraged presidential candidates to drop out, for the good of the party, before Michael Dukakis had formally claimed the Democratic nomination.

* There’s a surprising amount of debate over the explanation for McCain cancelling an event in Pennsylvania today. He either really has a bad cold, or he’s perfectly healthy but has a scheduling problem.

* Sen. Chuck Hagel may be a conservative Republican, but his wife is nevertheless an Obama donor.

* How bad a year is it for the GOP? Republicans apparently have to worry about Mississippi.

* A confusing-but-important note about tomorrow: “As for the actual meeting itself, there’s one more angle you ought to be aware of: a 50% cut and a halving of the delegates is not the same thing. For instance, if Florida delegates are seated in their entirety, but only have their vote counted as a .5, then Clinton will net approximately 19 delegates out of the state. But if the delegation is cut in half, that’s done in every congressional district as well as statewide, then suddenly Clinton’s advantage is only a net of six.”

“You’re not going to write that we’re a bunch of hysterical women trying to create havoc, are you?”

That would depend upon whether you get hysterical and create havoc, now, wouldn’t it? Maybe not…

  • WTF?

    Obama getting only 62% of African American vote? Do they say the rest is currently going to mcclame?

    Insanity

    Remember – the polling organizations do not have to release honest/accurate polls now, no one can actually say what will happen in November.

    Remember what these same organizations did in 2004 and in Venezuela? Despite the fact that their candidates were going to lose popular votes, the published inflated polls indicating their man was ahead – often by large margins.

    As the actual election got closer, they had to report the elections were close, but never did actually report numbers that were consistent with the exit polls (US) or the actual outcome in Venezuela.

    They can lie all they want now, creating the talking points that are used to influence stoooooopid voters or cover another stolen election.

  • Re the Michigan SUSA poll: Right now, the Clintons and their surrogates have been sending their supporters the message NOT to support Obama in November, even though they’re claiming unity (hah!). Many baby boomer women are lapping it up, now falling into that “undecided” category. (By the way, I am a 53-year-old white woman and Obama supporter who once upon a time would have been fine with either candidate.)

    When people stop listening to the Clintons so much, I think they will come to their senses. Also, don’t forget that all of the college students are gone for the summer, and the Michigan schools have many out-of-staters who register in Michigan for a presidential vote. Somehow, I don’t think students in Ann Arbor are going to vote for McCain.

  • The Pfleger incident is instructive in its illustration of the contrasting amounts of grace, perspective and largeness of spirit coming out of the two Democratic campaigns.

    Clinton (the candidate herself) uses Bobby Kennedy’s assassination as one example of why she’s staying in the race. Obama graciously accepts her non-apology and says no hard feelings.

    Michael Pfleger, who isn’t affiliated with Obama or his campaign in any way, melodramatically shoots off his mouth in church, as is his wont. Obama issues a clear public statement saying he wants none of that crap. In response, the Clinton campaign claims Obama’s response was not enough and demands that Obama go after Pfleger some more.

    Do the Clintons think they’re impressing the superdelegates with this behavior?

  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi isn’t the only one prepared to intervene to prevent the Democratic race from going all the way to the convention; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is on the same page.

    I love the smell of Clintons burning in the morning…

  • The media should BACK OFF from the Clintons. Everyone is abusing the Clintons as they prepare to retire from public life. Everyone needs to understand that Bill Clinton is suffering from post bypass surgery cognitive dysfunction and that explains why he’s acting how he has during the campaign:
    http://www.healthnewsdigest.com/news/Guest_Columnist_710/Bill_Clinton_s_Madness_A_Consequence_of_Heart-Bypass.shtml
    Bill Clinton also attributed Clinton’s age to her forgetfulness with Bosnia. It’s clear the Clintons are trying to have one last hurrah before they fade from the scene. Bill Clinton in particular should be defended due to his cognitive dysfunction.

  • Molly, please post a statement from Clinton’s campaign or a verifiable quote by Clinton supporting your claim that Clinton is urging her supporters not to vote for Obama in the Fall.

    CB, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that SOME women who support Clinton are willing to support Obama in the Fall. The question is how many. One woman is quoted. These little snippets are uninformative in that respect and there is no point in mentioning them except to create the impression that Clinton women are moving toward Obama, something your item does not prove at all.

    Pastor Pfleger made the mistake of saying in public what Obama supporters routinely say in private, so Obama’s transcendent kumbaya chastisement rings pretty hollow.

    I find it real interesting that Obama got only 64% of African American poll support in MI, then CB says that will improve by Nov. On what basis do you claim that? Perhaps if Obama is matched with McCain the remainder might hold their nose and vote for Obama, but it may be that this indicates support for Clinton among African Americans that Obama has not managed to wean away from her. Why? It might reflect disenchantment with Obama (in a state close enough to IL to know what Obama is really like) or it might represent a trend to regard working class problems as more important than race in a tough economy, in which case Obama will not be more appealing in the Fall, just perhaps a lesser of evils. Together with the softening among women mentioned elsewhere, this may signal a trend that should be a concern to the nominating convention. Why should Obama be losing support at the time when he should be pulling ahead, both of Clinton and McCain (given the problems Repubs supposedly face this year).

    Soft isn’t good at this point in his campaign. CB blithely assumes it will all get better. How, if Obama doesn’t know why his support is weakening and what to do about it? These things don’t happen by magic.

  • For the record, I’m not a huge fan of the media, or blogs, publishing general election polls at this stage in the game. Such data might be helpful to the parties and the candidates, but at this point, I don’t see how this helps or informs us.

  • I’m going to set the over/under for McCain at 10 states. The vote will end up about 58-42%.

    Just for fun, I’m going to guess at the 10 states McCain wins: Arizona, Alaska, Utah, Idaho, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama and two districts in Nebraska. That will net him 64 electoral votes.

    The odds of Pat Buchanan spontaneously combusting on election night are 15%.

  • Oh please, for FSM’s sake, let this thing end on June 3rd.
    🙂

  • Chris – exactly, but it is worse than that – they are actually trying to influence election and establish the media talking points for later.

    They know the results are meaningless and therefor don’t have to be accurate because any difference between early polls and results will be explained away with an infinite array of lame excuses.

    Look how we were all told how popular chimpy was leading by huge numbers up to 2000 and 2004 and then they steal the elections with an electorate that they proclaim to be almost exactly evenly split.

    Its just another form of the “beer test” lie – that Americans would overwhelmingly want to have a drink with an elite, spoiled, abusive alcoholic cocaine addict that ducked his duty in VietNam by snortin’ whiskey and drinkin’ cocaine.

  • Bill Clinton’s “cognitive disfunction” may be a reason, but it ain’t no excuse. He’s still pumping soundbites into to whole mess, and making it messier. And if his wife can’t put a lid on him now, how is she going to manage the “first gentleman” should she manage the impossible and get installed in the Presidency? This dog don’t hunt.

  • “Molly, please post a statement from Clinton’s campaign or a verifiable quote by Clinton supporting your claim that Clinton is urging her supporters not to vote for Obama in the Fall.”

    #1) The statement that McCain had crossed the threshold to be commander-in-chief, while Obama had not.

    #2) The comment that it would be nice to have two people who loved their country fighting it out in the general election. This implied that McCain definitely loves his country but that one of the two Democratic candidates did not.

  • Steve:
    In the overnight thread (@40), Beep52 linked to perhaps the best thing Obama has said during the whole campaign — against a lot of competition.

    To give the full and exact quote:(It’s from Reuters, btw, beep has the cite.)

    “Maybe it’s his background teaching constitutional law.

    “If elected president, Democratic White House hopeful Barack Obama said one of the first things he wants to do is ensure the constitutionality of all the laws and executive orders passed while Republican President George W. Bush has been in office.

    “Those that don’t pass muster will be overturned, he said.

    “During a fund-raiser in Denver, Obama — a former constitutional law professor at the University of Chicago Law School — was asked what he hoped to accomplish during his first 100 days in office.

    “‘I would call my attorney general in and review every single executive order issued by George Bush and overturn those laws or executive decisions that I feel violate the constitution,’ said Obama”

  • Dave, I have posted here at length about why Clinton had a distorted memory of Bosnia, including cites from the scholarly memory literature. It has little to do with age, except in the sense that the further in the past an event happened, the less access to sensory detail will remain and the more someone relies on a schema for the event. If you are 10, how much distant can you be from anything in your past? These distortions are produced by normal memory processes that happen in everyone, including 20-somethings. Just ask your mother about some event in your childhood and notice the discrepancies between what she says and what you remember. Or go so a movie with a friend and then compare notes about what happened in it, a week afterward. There will be substantial differences in what you each remember about it (and you can’t both be right).

    Has anyone noticed that Bill Clinton is not the person running for president? Who cares whether he has dementia or chicken pox? But, there is no reason why he should have any cognitive deficits resulting from his surgery. It does make a terrific smear, but such surgeries are routinely among CEOs, politicians and people in other jobs requiring mental acuity, and the folks who have had them do just fine. The implication that anyone older than Obama must be senile is ageist, but that won’t trouble you any. Progressive values went out the window a long time ago and this is only about electing Obama these days.

    The media should do their job and treat all of the candidates even-handedly. Analysis after analysis shows that McCain is the darling, Obama is given a pass, and Clinton is vilified at worst and ignored at best.

    But you know that.

  • Seems to me this is something routinely done when a new president takes office, since a president of the opposite party is likely to have enacted quite a few executive orders he might take issue with.

    On the other hand, is there any reason to believe Clinton wouldn’t do something similar? Clinton has repeatedly said she will restore the country to its previous respect for the constitution. Making a remark about one specific instance of accomplishing that isn’t a deviation from that larger goal.

    I imagine Obama will have the White House windows washed and maybe rearrange the furniture a bit too, and bring in a new cabinet committed to accomplishing his goals — don’t forget about that!

  • Splitting Image @ 10:

    I will take the over…

    Add 1 or both Dakotas and a Wyoming. Don’t be completely sure that McSame will carry Arizona! The newspapers there have been at war with him for quite a while.

    I’ll take your 15% on Pat Buchanan and raise you with a 25% on Tucker Carlson & JoKe Scarborough!

  • LATimes: “A Clinton media spokesman, Phil Singer, said Thursday that after the final primaries next week, Clinton would remain a candidate, competing in what he called ‘the superdelegate primary.'”

    Additional evidence that Clinton couldn’t care less about the Democratic Party or our country. With a lot of luck (we’re gonna need it), Pelosi and Associates will find a way to shut her down next week.

  • Has anyone noticed that Bill Clinton is not the person running for president?

    Yes, he’s the person who helped make sure Hillary Clinton’s run for the presidency is now over.

    On the other hand, is there any reason to believe Clinton wouldn’t do something similar?

    Is there any reason to care what she would have done? See above.

  • Obama is reportedly in “excellent health.”

    When Wolf Blitzer heard Obama’s health statement was only one page covering 20 years, after McCain offered over a thousand page covering eight years, he concluded that Obama must have something to hide. Apparently he thinks it’s unusual for a forty-something year-old man to lack details of multiple cancers, broken bones, cholesterol problems, etc. Pressed by Cafferty, he insisted he had never smoked cigarettes, but wouldn’t discuss pot. I think there must be some explanation for a wasted mind here.

  • Splitting:
    I think you may be overestimating it. I think WVa will almost certainly go Obama — though I seem to be the only one — and probably Tennessee. I also think he’s going to have more difficulty carrying his home state than people think.

    You don’t give McCain Kansas — and I agree. But I think you probably have to give him ND and Wyoming, and Georgia is likely to be more in play — any state that has Larry “10 Commandments” Westmoreland in its delegation might do anything.

    And with Mark Begich making a strong race, maybe Alaska might surprise people.

    But the real landslide is in the Congressional races. We’ve already seen the by-elections in ‘certain’ Republican districts, and the Democratic sweep of them. Seriously, if they could lose those districts, literally no Republican House seat is certain — and those people who predict the Republicans can win on anti-Obama feeling should note that all three — I think — tried to tie the Democrat to Obama.

    It didn’t work.

    And while Al Franken’s problems might reelect Coleman, there are a lot more seats open than it seemed like. (And if the Democrats win the special in Mississippi — looking more and more possible — it’s Kitty bar the door.) Even the seemingly invulnerable Ted Stevens is in BIG trouble.

  • “But if the delegation is cut in half, that’s done in every congressional district as well as statewide, then suddenly Clinton’s advantage is only a net of six.”

    It depends on what the definition of “half” is! 🙂

  • Has anyone noticed that Bill Clinton is not the person running for president?

    Yes, he’s the person who helped make sure Hillary Clinton’s run for the presidency is now over.

    I thought that was Mark Penn and Terry McAuliffe.

  • Danp said:
    “Wolf Blitzer… I think there must be some explanation for a wasted mind here.”

    The explanation for Wolf Blitzer is not a wasted mind. Wolf is a former employee of AIPAC! Open question whether he was a ‘spokesman’ or a ‘lobbyist’ or the ‘editor of their newsletter’.

    As a zionist fully committed to the Likud Party, which AIPAC is an echo chamber for, Wolf seems convinced that Obama is not sufficiently supportive of the Likud Party to be allowed to be president!

    Please note: Only in the U.S. is a person deemed to be antisemitic if they do not fully agree with AIPAC and the Likud Party. If you want to be better informed about Israel, there are many English language Israeli newspapers and web sites that present more sides to issues than just the Likud perspective.

  • I agree with Wolf Blitzer. I think Obama may have neglected to list minor or transitory complaints, perhaps to heighten the contrast between his released info and McCain’s (suggesting McCain is tottering toward the grave). The only people who go 8 years with nothing are those who cannot afford to visit a doctor. Even the healthy have occasional bronchial infections after a flu or wrist sprains (from his basketball) etc. A friend who plays in that kind of pickup game is always walking around with a knee brace or some such (or does this again illustrate Obama’s fundamental overcautiousness). I haven’t seen his report, but it is relatively common for African American males his age to have chronic problems such as high blood pressure or borderline diabetic blood sugar levels. I don’t think these are serious problems, but they illustrate that someone in his 40s is less likely to escape such problems if he is African American. The 40s are when cancers and heart attacks start to occur. If you survive them you have a clear shot to a much longer life (as McCain illustrates), but that is an “if”. I wouldn’t wish health problems on Obama, but implying that he is too young to have any is just plain silly.

  • A friend who plays in that kind of pickup game is always walking around with a knee brace or some such (or does this again illustrate Obama’s fundamental overcautiousness).

    Absolutely. The fact that Obama doesn’t constantly injure himself playing basketball definitely implies that the man suffers from a character weakness that could be a problem in the presidency.

    You are fucking nuts, girl. Just a raving fucking loon.

  • “The only people who go 8 years with nothing are those who cannot afford to visit a doctor.”

    I went decades without seeing a doctor

    Now that I’m older [older than Obama] I see a doctor regularly
    every 2-3 years for my annual check-up.

  • As if Scott McClellan hasn’t raised enough of a fuss, he indicated yesterday that he might vote for Barack Obama.

    Go over to Salon and check out War Room – Alex Koppelman has an interesting post about how McClellan is “cashing in” on his book. Turns out it’s not true (please not this, all “perfect lefties” who were pooh-poohing McClellan here the past few days)

  • Tom Cleaver: Go. Away. Nobody gives a shit about your ignorant, incompetent bullshit.

    There, that felt good! Now I know why you write such things!

  • Isn’t it obvious he doesn’t put his heart into the game — to play regularly and never have any sort of injury, even a minor one?

    And yes, our character is revealed in everything we do. Yours too.

  • Re: 8:

    “Pastor Pfleger made the mistake of saying in public what Obama supporters routinely say in private, so Obama’s transcendent kumbaya chastisement rings pretty hollow.”

    Do you have a source on that?

    Re: 17:

    “Analysis after analysis shows that McCain is the darling, Obama is given a pass, and Clinton is vilified at worst and ignored at best.”

    Can you list a few of these analyses here?

    Re: 18:

    “Clinton has repeatedly said she will restore the country to its previous respect for the constitution.”

    How about a specific example from Clinton? I read recently where Obama indicated upon taking office, he’d ask his Attorney General to review Bush’s executive orders and overturn any that were violations of the Constitution.

  • Regarding McClellan holding out the idea that he might vote for Obama, I think it’s just your standard political blackmail: He figures McCain will be so hard-up for votes in November that they’ll play nice with him in order to not lose his vote. That McClellan’s a crafty one. I think it just might work.

  • “I have posted here at length about why Clinton had a distorted memory of Bosnia, including cites from the scholarly memory literature. It has little to do with age, except in the sense that the further in the past an event happened, the less access to sensory detail will remain and the more someone relies on a schema for the event.”

    This has GOT to be parody. Please god, tell me this is parody.

    The sooner this “primary” ends, the sooner I can start losing access to the sensory detail of exactly why I lost respect for Hillary Clinton. Who knows, maybe she can finally give the outstanding performance in the Senate that her admirers imagine she’s already given, and she can actually redeem her reputation…WITHOUT the need for a memory hole. One can hope, anyway.

  • A friend who plays in that kind of pickup game is always walking around with a knee brace or some such — Mary, @28

    Perhaps he’s an accident-pone but persistent (stubborn) klutz? I’m like that too, but not everyone is.

    As for your statement: “The only people who go 8 years with nothing are those who cannot afford to visit a doctor.” (also @28), that’s absolute nonsense. I had an emergency appendectomy late last year and an “annual” check-up early that year but, before then, I hadn’t seen a doctor for 16 yrs. And, because that checkup showed up nothing wrong except slightly elevated cholesterol level, my own file is likely to be thin and the summary would, probably, be limited to about as much as Obama’s: “excellent health”. And I’m 58 (for another few months), not mid-forties like he is. You see, us, naturally skinny folk, tend to have fewer health problems than the typical “American whale”…

  • Isn’t it obvious he doesn’t put his heart into the game — to play regularly and never have any sort of injury, even a minor one?

    Since everyone who plays with him reports that he’s a good player and does “put his heart into the game,” we strongly suspect that you’re projecting again. Are you, like Hillary, constantly injuring yourself physically, mentally and emotionally through your own incompetence and bad judgment, then trying to claim that your self-inflicted problems show you’re a “fighter”? Your posts here certainly reflect that mindset in all its shame.

    A few poorly adjusted people who are terrified of accountability like to spin their screwups and failures as hidden virtues that only they can discern. Alas, sometimes a loser is just a loser.

  • Mary, I agree with Ugh. You are a raving loon. And a bigoted one at that.

    Nothing like attacking his health report because he’s a black man!! Don’t forget he’s half-white too, so I’m sure he’s got ED and sciatica problems from sitting on his fat wallet.

    I haven’t heard a thing about Hillary’s health report, but I’m sure as a woman in her 50s she has all kinds of problems associated with the ‘change’. Probably on hormones, that explains the Joker-like grin that quickly shifts to the whining scowl. It’s also common for women her age to have a hysterectomy and/or plastic surgery. I can’t wait to find out where she’s been nipped/tucked. And as you said:
    The 40s are when cancers and heart attacks start to occur. If you survive them you have a clear shot to a much longer life (as McCain illustrates), but that is an “if”.
    So I’m sure we’ll get to hear about Hillary’s mammograms. Of course, if her health report is only a page or two, we should expect that she is hiding something.

  • Oh, and if you bothered to follow CB’s link here is what was said:

    Dr. Schiener, who is on staff at the University of Chicago Hospitals and Rush University Medical Center, said he last examined Mr. Obama on Jan. 15, 2007 – one day before Mr. Obama created a presidential exploratory committee. He has been Mr. Obama’s doctor since March 23, 1987.
    “During that period of time, Senator Obama has been in excellent health,” Dr. Scheiner wrote. “He has been seen regularly for medical checkups and various minor problems such as upper respiratory infections, skin rashes and minor injuries.”

    Hmm various minor problems and injuries. I wonder if they were basketball related?

  • Regarding MI and FL, it’ll be interesting to see how that plays out this weekend.

    My suggestions on what the Obama campaign should insist upon –

    1. Reduce the total delegate count (pledged plus super) in each state by 50%. Include in that cut all the super delegates who voted to move the primaries up.
    2. Split the remaining pledged delegates between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. Each gets the same amount.
    3. Leave the remaining super delegates free to endorse either candidate.

  • “He has been seen regularly for medical checkups and various minor problems such as upper respiratory infections, skin rashes and minor injuries.”

    Well, well, well. Senator Sneak suffers from some interesting maladies. Obviously, the upper respiratory infections were the result of smoking too much weed — so much, in fact, that it’s likely that he was a dealer as a way of bonding with the young blacks in his neighborhood and showing that he was “fo’ real.”

    The skin rashes are probably a combination of this wimpy man’s inability to deal with stress and a nascent herpes infection resulting from men’s typical inability to be faithful to their wives.

    Minor injuries could be related to sickle cell anemia, which of course affects only black people. I don’t suppose any of you have given a thought to black men’s heightened health problems and how they might negatively affect the presidency? No, of course you haven’t.

  • The skin rashes are probably a combination of this wimpy man’s inability to deal with stress and a nascent herpes infection resulting from men’s typical inability to be faithful to their wives. — Mary, Mother of Odd, @43

    Either that, or else an allergy to milk. Quite common among African-Americans (which Obama is not, come to think of it. Or not as Mary, upthread, means the term) and entirely disqualifying Obama as a representative of the hard working dairy cattle farmers.

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